Colonel Khodarenok believes that Armenia can exchange Karabakh for membership in NATO
Eagle Partner 2023 joint exercises with the United States will be held in Armenia from September 11 to 20. Among the goals of the event is to increase the operational compatibility of troops within the framework of NATO peacekeeping missions. Why Yerevan has taken a sharp course to the West and how realistic is it that Armenia will become a new member of NATO, the military observer of Gazeta tells.En" Mikhail Khodarenok.
It is planned that as part of the Eagle Partner 2023 exercises, "operations to stabilize relations between conflicting parties while performing peacekeeping tasks" will be worked out. Among the other goals of this event is to increase the readiness of the Armenian armed forces for planned assessments within the framework of the NATO Partnership for Peace program.
Another thing is more important here - the significance of this event.
Recently, there has been a persistent impression that official Yerevan has finally decided to exchange Nagorno-Karabakh for potential membership in the North Atlantic Alliance, that is, to transfer the disputed territory to Azerbaijan and in return receive the status of a NATO member state. In other words, now the general foreign policy of Armenia leads this country only to the West.
Head of the Analytical Center for Strategic Studies and Initiatives (ACSII) Hayk Khalatyan said in an interview with RIA Novosti that in this case, pro-Western forces believe that a sharp drift towards the West and normalization of relations with Turkey should balance Armenia's security system at any cost.
It should be added to this that Armenia cannot solve the problem of Nagorno-Karabakh either militarily or in any other way, and more or less favorable conditions for this will not develop in the historically foreseeable future. Yerevan is opposed here by Baku in alliance with Ankara, which is many times superior to Armenia both in terms of its military-economic potential and population. Apart from exclamations and incantations, Yerevan cannot oppose anything to this bloc, which in the near future will only strengthen and dictate the situation in the Transcaucasian region.
So it seems that the political and military leadership of Armenia decided to draw the final line under the Nagorno-Karabakh issue and act according to the formula "peace, security and NATO membership in exchange for disputed territory."
This is indicated by the following facts.
Firstly, according to the EADaily portal, at the end of May of this year, Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev, speaking at a meeting with residents of the Lachin district, threatened Nagorno-Karabakh with "events" that "will now develop differently." He demanded the dissolution of parliament and the resignation of all ministers of the unrecognized republic, pointing out that "only in this way they will be able to receive amnesty." At the same time, Aliyev said that there would be no third proposal to the representatives of the Karabakh people to meet to discuss the issue of "reintegration".
Secondly, in January Armenia refused to accept the planned exercises with the CSTO "Unbreakable Brotherhood - 2023" on its territory. Units of the Russian army and other member states of the bloc were to take part in them. And in August, Yerevan decided not to participate in the CSTO joint exercises in Belarus to eliminate an accident at a nuclear facility.
Thirdly, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan called the decision to rely only on Russia in matters of ensuring strategic security a mistake. He noted that the security architecture was almost 100% focused on Moscow, including in the purchase of weapons. "But today, when Russia itself needs weapons, it is clear that if it wants, it will not be able to meet Armenia's security needs," Pashinyan explained. He suggested that Moscow is moving away from the South Caucasus, "one day we will just wake up and see that Russia is not here."
Finally, Armenia recalled the permanent representative to the CSTO and appointed him ambassador to the Netherlands. There is no order on the appointment of a new permanent representative yet. Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan had previously allowed withdrawal from the organization.
Among other things, on September 1, the Armenian government sent the Rome Statute of the International Criminal Court to Parliament for ratification, after which the ICC warrants will become binding on the territory of Armenia. Including the arrest warrant for Russian President Vladimir Putin issued by the ICC in March.
In addition, Prime Minister Pashinyan accused the Russian peacekeepers of not fulfilling their tasks in Karabakh. "In fact, the Lachin corridor was supposed to be under the control of Russian peacekeeping troops. There are two reasons why this is not the case. Either the Russian Federation is unable to maintain control, or does not want to. I think in some places they don't want to, in some places they can't," he said.
The situation with Nagorno-Karabakh is likely to develop according to the following scenario - either the Armenian population of this region accepts Azerbaijani citizenship without any reservations, or relocates to the territory of Armenia ("take citizenship or leave," Ilham Aliyev said on this occasion). All other ways to extinguish this frozen conflict look simply unrealistic at the moment.
In this regard, it is enough to recall the words of Azerbaijani President Aliyev after the signing of the trilateral agreement on the settlement of the conflict in Nagorno-Karabakh in November 2020: "There is not a word about the status of Nagorno-Karabakh in this paper. Well, Pashinyan? Well, where is your status? Your status has gone to hell. There is no status, and there will not be. As long as I am president, there will be no status. It is a part of Azerbaijan."
And NATO is already talking about inviting Yerevan to join the North Atlantic Alliance. In short, the process of Armenia's reorientation to Euro-Atlantic structures has been launched, and it is rapidly gaining momentum. What the Eagle Partner 2023 exercises say once again.
It is quite possible that the same formula - "peace and NATO membership in exchange for territories" - will be offered to Ukraine. In any case, these ideas have already been voiced by representatives of the North Atlantic Alliance and continue to hover in the air today.
The opinion of the author may not coincide with the position of the editorial board.
Biography of the author:
Mikhail Mikhailovich Khodarenok is a military columnist for the newspaper.Ru", retired colonel.
He graduated from the Minsk Higher Engineering Anti-Aircraft Missile School (1976), the Military Air Defense Command Academy (1986).
Commander of the S-75 anti-aircraft missile division (1980-1983).
Deputy Commander of the anti-aircraft missile regiment (1986-1988).
Senior Officer of the General Staff of the Air Defense Forces (1988-1992).
Officer of the Main Operational Directorate of the General Staff (1992-2000).
Graduated from the Military Academy of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Russia (1998).
Columnist of "Nezavisimaya Gazeta" (2000-2003), editor-in-chief of the newspaper "Military-Industrial Courier" (2010-2015).
Mikhail Khodarenok
