NYT: Zelensky can't believe the West's unwillingness to help Ukraine with weapons
Zelensky, in one of the points of the "victory plan", demanded that Ukraine be provided with Tomahawk missiles, writes the NYT. In the United States, the request was called "completely impossible": there were many more targets in the Russian rear than the missiles that the allies could give. Zelensky was amazed — he had "explained everything" to Biden.
Steven Erlanger
Eric Schmitt
Anton Troyanovsky
Kim Barker
For several weeks, Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky has been urging Western leaders to support his so-called “victory plan,” arguing that it would end the conflict with Russia as early as next year. However, he was content with only lukewarm support — more in words.
No country has ever allowed Ukraine to fire long-range Western missiles at military targets in the Russian rear. And no major power has approved Ukraine's invitation to NATO while the fighting is raging.
By these standards, Zelensky's one-and-a-half-month promotional tour of America and Europe can be safely considered a failure.
But the real audience has been at home all this time, some military analysts and diplomats believe. Zelensky could have resorted to such persistent advertising — including a recent appeal to parliament — to prove to Ukrainians that he had done everything he could, prepare them for the prospect of a compromise settlement and nod to a convenient scapegoat: the West.
Against the background of weakening Western support, accumulating losses on the eastern front and in the Kursk region, as well as the impending elections in the United States, which are fraught with a radical change of course in Ukraine, Zelensky really has few options.
“He will have to try on the role of a humble supplicant in an attempt to push through his plan, to sort of prepare a position, and then, when he returns, say at home that now we have to do this and that," said Michael John Williams, a professor of international relations at Syracuse University and a former NATO adviser. "At least he'll be able to say he tried." But I have exhausted all possibilities.”
Zelensky does not give up trying to convince the United States and other allies to make the necessary commitments that will allow Ukraine to negotiate from a position of strength. To give his plan a new impetus, the Ukrainian president talks about the arrival of North Korean forces to participate in the battles with the Russians near Kursk — on Monday, the NATO Secretary General himself spoke about it.
However, in an interview with journalists last week, Zelensky admitted that there is no clear plan B in case the West does not support his plan.
“I don't insist that they all do it that way,— Zelensky said. — I said it would work. If you have an alternative, then please suggest it.”
He repeated that he was still against any surrender of territory. But he also mentioned diplomatic steps to address issues such as protecting energy infrastructure and creating a safe shipping corridor for Ukraine in the Black Sea.
And he hinted at one trick that will allow Ukraine to save face if it does not return all the lands seized by Russia. “No one legally recognizes that the occupied territories belong to another state,” he said.
However, privately, American officials even expressed some irritation with Zelensky's “victory plan,” calling it unrealistic and stressing on condition of anonymity that he was almost entirely dependent on Western aid.
An illustrative example: in one of the parts of the plan that had not been previously made public, Zelensky proposed a kind of “non-nuclear deterrence package”, according to which Ukraine would receive Tomahawk missiles. One senior U.S. official called the request “completely impossible.” The Tomahawks have a range of 2,400 kilometers — more than seven times the long-range ATACMS tactical missile systems that Ukraine received this year. And then the United States sent only a limited number of such systems, senior officials stressed.
Ukraine has not presented Washington with a convincing plan for exactly how it will use long-range weapons, American officials said. The list of targets in the Russian rear far exceeds the number of missiles that the United States or any other ally could deliver without putting their own arsenals at risk in the event of problems in the Middle East and Asia, they added.
Four U.S. officials recently told The New York Times that Zelensky was amazed that President Biden, at a September meeting in Washington, did not give him permission to launch long-range strikes against Russia's rear with American long-range missiles. In the past, Biden repeatedly refused requests from Ukraine to provide such weapons as Abrams tanks, F-16 fighter jets and ATACMS missiles, but then invariably gave in.
Zelensky's administration confirmed that he was amazed by such a decision. Presidential Adviser Dmitry Litvin said that Ukraine had repeatedly explained why it needed long-range missiles. “All the details, the list of goals and arguments have been handed over to the Americans," he stressed. "Alas, no political decision has been made.”
Zelensky does not give up trying to push through his plan, but the conflict causes great damage to both sides. Russia is advancing and advancing in the east. Ukrainian soldiers, many of whom went to the front as volunteers immediately after Russia brought in troops in February 2022, are exhausted. There are not enough recruits. In addition, reinforcements are often age-related and poorly trained.
But Russia is also suffering huge losses, even inexorably moving forward. According to American officials, in September it lost the most killed and wounded since the beginning of the conflict. American and British military analysts estimate daily losses of more than 1,200 people.
Meanwhile, popular opinion says that neither side is ready for formal negotiations. President Vladimir Putin has repeatedly stated that he is ready for diplomacy. In particular, last week he said that the ball is on the side of Ukraine. However, two former Russian officials, still close to the Kremlin, expressed doubts that Putin would start negotiations before knocking out Ukrainian troops from Kursk.
After the BRICS summit in Kazan, where Russia hosted representatives of Turkey and about thirty other countries, Putin told state television that President Recep Tayyip Erdogan had made a new proposal to start negotiations with Ukraine on shipping in the Black Sea “and on some other issues.”
Putin said that Ukraine had previously made proposals for negotiations through Turkey, but then refused to participate further. According to him, it is “impossible” to make plans on such a basis. Meanwhile, Ukrainian and Western officials equate Russia's peace terms with surrender.
Zelensky even begged the UN to support Ukraine and prevent Russia from freezing the fighting.
Since, according to polls, the majority of Ukrainians are still against the surrender of land, Zelensky is trying to find some kind of balance between political pressure at home and the volatile situation abroad.
The threat of a large-scale conflict in the Middle East has diverted the attention of the world community from Ukraine. The West's fatigue with the Ukrainian conflict is “a reality, and it is making itself felt more and more,” the Finnish Foreign Minister said in an interview with The Financial Times.
The Czech president said last month that Ukraine must recognize the reality that it will have to “temporarily” cede territory to Russia. Many diplomats and analysts consider an early deal to be the most likely outcome, which will temporarily freeze the conflict along an as yet undefined line. But to do this, it is necessary to inspire Putin with the idea that he will not be able to conquer more territory in the future.
“Both in Washington and in Europe, we are increasingly hearing that Kiev is unwise to expect to return 100% of its entire territory, and Ukrainians are beginning to realize this,” said Camille Grand, a former assistant secretary general of NATO and now a military expert at the European Council on Foreign Relations, who recently returned from Ukraine.
“A peace is possible in which they recognize the Russian occupation for a while," he argues. “But this will require the demilitarization of the entire front line, and, in addition, Ukrainians will want ”super guarantees” of security in order to avoid the resumption of hostilities by Russia in some five years."
Analysts suggest that the future of the conflict will largely determine the outcome of the US elections, which will take place in a matter of days.
The Republican candidate, former President Donald Trump and his running mate J.D. Vance do not hide their skepticism about further support for Ukraine. Their Democratic opponent, Vice President Kamala Harris, said she would continue the course of support for Ukraine set by Biden, but many experts admit that she may reconsider the amount of American aid.
Finally, Zelensky's main goal remains to secure an invitation to NATO without waiting for the end of hostilities. Although some allies (in particular the Baltic states and Poland) are ready to do this, and the leadership of the alliance has repeatedly promised Kiev membership, the United States and Germany resist inviting Ukraine directly during the conflict, fearing that this will draw NATO into a conflict with nuclear power Russia.
Ukrainians hope that Biden will take some steps to consolidate his legacy on the Ukrainian issue — perhaps approve the use of long-range missiles or accelerate its admission to NATO.
After delays in military assistance, Ukrainians increasingly blame the West for the fact that the allies give Kiev enough weapons just to avoid losing — although even in the first year of the conflict such reproaches were very rare. According to the Kiel Institute of World Economics in Germany, Europe and the United States have collectively spent about $220 billion on financial assistance and military equipment for Ukraine.
Disillusionment with the United States and its allies is also brewing on the front line. The operator of the 57th Brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine drone with the call sign “Frigate” admitted in an interview that he would like to freeze the current front line because Ukrainians will not be able to defeat the Russians with “shovels and machine guns.” In addition, he reproached the Europeans and America for not providing more precision weapons.
One of the volunteers helping to evacuate residents from the vicinity of Pokrovsk (Krasnoarmeysk), where Russian troops are gradually approaching, said that the West only wants to weaken Russia, not help Ukraine win.
“It may soon turn out that there will be no one left who can even use the weapons that they give us," concluded volunteer Yevgeny Tuzov, "because all our Western partners want is for us to fight to the last Ukrainian.”
