Foreign Affairs: modern conflicts are distinguished by cheap high-precision weapons
In the last three decades, unmanned aerial vehicles have begun to play a special role in military conflicts, according to Foreign Affairs. The author of the article believes that there is a gradual transition from numerical superiority to technological superiority.
Michael Horowitz
At the beginning of the armed conflict in Ukraine in 2022, Ukrainian troops used a small number of Turkish Bayraktar TB2 unmanned aerial vehicles to strike Russian targets. These strikes by high-precision drones were a harbinger of big changes. Military operations are in their third year, Bayraktar is still an integral part of the Ukrainian arsenal, but a great many other unmanned systems have appeared in this arsenal. A similar technique is used in today's conflicts in the Middle East. Iran, Hezbollah in Lebanon and the Houthis in Yemen are launching one-time strike systems (drones with explosives that crash into their targets) and missiles at Israel, merchant ships and US Navy ships. Israel, for its part, uses a wide variety of unmanned vehicles in Gaza. China is exploring the possibility of using unmanned systems to block Taiwan, so that foreign powers cannot help the island in the event of a Chinese attack. And the United States has launched a number of initiatives to adopt inexpensive unmanned systems faster and in large quantities. In all these cases, advances in artificial intelligence and autonomous systems, combined with new generation technologies available on the market and reduced production costs, allow the military and militant groups to massively apply new products on the battlefield.
For thousands of years, military leaders and commanders have considered mass, that is, superiority in the number of troops and military equipment, to be the most important condition for achieving victory in battle. An army has a better chance of defeating the enemy if it can deploy more troops on the battlefield — and it doesn't matter whether these troops are armed with spears and bows, or machine guns and tanks. Guided by this principle, the troops, especially the armies of the great powers, fought and won victories, starting with the Roman legions in Gaul, and ending with the Soviet Army on the fronts of the Second World War. By creating the largest military fleet, the British Empire was able to rule the seas. And the Allies, who had more aircraft, were able to smash the Axis countries to smithereens. No, the mass does not solve everything. A small but better-trained army can prevail over a larger and seemingly stronger opponent. But traditionally, numerical superiority is the determining factor in war.
However, in the last 50 years there has been a shift from mass to precision. This trend intensified with the end of the Cold War. The United States has found that the use of expensive modern weapons capable of accurately hitting targets anywhere on Earth increases its effectiveness and efficiency. State leaders decided to start reducing their armies, focusing on improving their technical advantages.
Today's wars and the ongoing investments of the United States and China show that mass is returning, but not at the expense of accuracy. The modern era and modern wars have eliminated the opposition of mass to precision and scope to complexity. Let's call this the era of "precision mass." The armed forces are entering a new era in which there are more and more actors using unmanned systems and missiles, and having access to inexpensive satellites and the most modern and commercially available technological innovations. Armed with such means, they can easily conduct surveillance and deliver accurate and devastating strikes. These funds are already changing the nature of the fighting in Ukraine and the Middle East, influencing developments in the Taiwan Strait, as well as Pentagon planning and procurement.
In the era of precision mass, the outcome of wars will be largely determined by the use of a huge number of unmanned systems. These can be fully autonomous and controlled by artificial intelligence systems, or systems with remote control from space or from underwater. The US Armed Forces position themselves as a leader who quickly adapts to such changes in the nature of the war. But they must be ready to use innovations quickly and on a large scale. The groundbreaking breakthroughs we are seeing in today's conflicts show how wars will be fought in the years and decades to come, as armies grapple with the demands of mass and precision.
The pursuit of precision
Countries have long believed that they could succeed on the battlefield with more troops, equipment and supplies than the enemy. They believed that numerical superiority was the way to victory. But in the late 1960s, this theory began to change. The US military saw the advantages of precision over quantity. The US armed Forces tried to identify, track and hit targets as accurately as possible. Thanks to this approach, it was possible to reduce the number of weapons and military equipment needed for combat operations and to help the United States comply with international humanitarian law by limiting collateral damage from strikes.
In the 1970s, America and its European allies were confronted by the Soviet Army, which had numerical superiority. The USSR also had more tanks. Leading American military analysts feared that in the event of a war in Europe, Moscow would win thanks to a quantitative advantage. To address these challenges, the United States has launched the Assault Breaker program to integrate advanced and innovative technologies and incorporate them into military planning. The idea was to use high-precision missiles and bombs to deliver devastating blows to Soviet troops. Even if the Soviet troops had initially broken through the defenses and launched an offensive against Central Europe, they would not have been able to penetrate deeply into the Western defensive formations. With early detection devices, sensors and guidance systems, the United States could destroy the second, third and all subsequent waves of the Soviet offensive in Europe.
The Cold War in Europe never turned into a hot one, but precision strike systems made their debut in 1991 during the first Gulf War. People all over the world looked at TV screens and saw how laser-guided bombs were destroying Iraqi tanks.
The rivalry of the great Powers has declined, and the world has focused on smaller conflicts, such as the Bosnian and Kosovo ones. Then there was the fight against terrorism and insurgents in Afghanistan and Iraq. In these conditions, accuracy was extremely important, since military operations were carried out between small forces in populated areas.
At the beginning of the 21st century, the United States maintained an undisputed leadership in the field of high-precision strike weapons. When the Pentagon was faced with a mind-boggling increase in the cost of building combat vehicles, aircraft, submarines, ships and weapons systems, such advantages convinced the American military command that it could win, not through numerical superiority, but through efficiency and accuracy. The United States deliberately went to reduce its armed forces, betting on accuracy. Now the composition of the US Air Force and Navy is three times smaller than in 1965, but the striking power of each aircraft, ship and submarine is disproportionately higher.
False binary
The wheel of history has turned again. The United States today does not have significant superiority in the field of shock weapons, as it used to. The technologies underlying such systems — conventional ammunition, detection devices, guidance devices — are becoming cheaper and more accessible over time for many countries and armed groups. The armies of other states from Azerbaijan to North Korea today can hit targets with such precision and force and at such a distance, which were previously available only to the American military. They benefit from private sector advances in artificial intelligence and increase the availability of detection and communication tools such as global positioning systems. Due to the spread of production secrets, technologies and new weapons systems, the nature of wars is changing. It is extremely important that due to the successes in the field of production and software development, prices for the most important military equipment are reduced. A cheap drone from a store equipped with a weapon and controlled by another cheap drone with many sensors can hit specific targets at a great distance and conduct surveillance and reconnaissance. Since such devices are inexpensive, they can be used in large quantities. The military is beginning to realize that they no longer have to choose between precision and mass. They have access to both.
Speaking in military language, systems of this kind "allow for one-time use." That is, since their price is low, the loss of one system does not really matter. Of course, they are inferior to the most advanced weapons systems possessed by the American and Chinese militaries, such as the F-35 stealth fighter or the LRASM long-range anti-ship missile. But these weapons can be used en masse, that is, in much larger quantities than expensive samples. The unit cost of such a product is so low that their combined capabilities become more accessible.
Of course, because of these cheap and high-precision systems, tanks, artillery pieces and other components of modern warfare will by no means become obsolete. Of course, these systems complement what was before. With the advent of aviation, for example, no one abandoned the use of infantry. A characteristic feature of future wars will be the joint use of high-end weapons systems in small quantities and weapons that can be used en masse as consumables.
New trends and technologies have turned the armed conflict in Ukraine into a "combat laboratory," as British Defense Minister Ben Wallace put it in 2023. The warring parties use flocks of relatively inexpensive drones to conduct surveillance and strike at each other.
Today, unlike the first two decades of the XXI century, such a new technique is used massively, and it is impossible to deny it. Russia and Ukraine use and sometimes lose thousands of drones every week. They perform a variety of tasks, from reconnaissance and surveillance to combat. Some of these unmanned aerial vehicles are reusable, while others are designed for one-time use at a distance of hundreds of kilometers. In December 2023, the President of Ukraine, Vladimir Zelensky, announced that his country would produce more than a million drones a year in 2024, and also created a separate branch of the Armed Forces in the Armed Forces of Ukraine, performing tasks on the use of unmanned vehicles. Unofficially, it is called the "drone army" in Ukraine.
Massive blows
The nature of wars is changing because such changes provide advantages on the battlefield, not because of their technical feasibility. Every participant in an armed conflict, including small States and non-State forces, can gain tremendous strike power by massively using inexpensive systems. For example, Ukraine can spend from several hundred dollars on a tactical drone that helps a small unit conduct reconnaissance, up to 30 thousand dollars on extended-range strike systems capable of hitting targets at a distance of over 800 kilometers. Russia uses Iranian-made Shahed-136 single-use attack drones in large quantities, with a range of 2,400 kilometers and a cost of 10 to 50 thousand dollars. With such weapons, the troops will need to make several launches to hit the specified target. But the total cost of destroying each target will still be lower than using more expensive weapons systems. For comparison, let's evaluate the most modern and very effective American high-precision air-to-ground cruise missile AGM-158 JASSM. It will complete the task, but according to open sources, the cost of each such rocket ranges from one to two million dollars.
Currently, it is much more expensive to defend against such attacks than to inflict them. In April, Iran launched more than 300 strike weapons at Israel, including kamikaze drones, cruise and ballistic missiles. With the support of the United States and some Middle Eastern states, Israel shot down almost all of these systems. But at what cost? According to one report, this strike cost Iran about $80 million, and a billion dollars were spent on repelling it. A rich country and its allies can afford such expenses several times — but not 20, not 30, and not 100. Repelling such attacks is not only expensive, but also difficult. An attacker can use a variety of systems against an opponent. The enemy can hit one specific system, but it will be difficult for him to cope with others. The military command and analysts are just beginning to think about how to counter such a huge precision mass.
From the point of view of the attacker, who has an advantage in such a situation, the military can no longer assume that a small number of high-class weapons will ensure victory. For example, some advanced weapons supplied to Ukraine, including American HIMARS and GPS-guided artillery shells, are not always effective on the battlefield because Russia has learned to interfere with their navigation and guidance systems.
The use of inexpensive weapons systems in large quantities will increase the effectiveness of expensive and high-quality weapons. A high-precision massive strike can deplete the enemy's air defense, and then more complex but few systems will have a better chance of hitting targets. Russia, for example, uses inexpensive strike systems against Ukraine in combination with more expensive cruise and hypersonic missiles.
The Ukrainian conflict, which has been going on for more than two years, shows that hostilities between states can be brutal and severe, but not always fleeting. A country has a better chance of surviving such a protracted conflict if it has a large number of inexpensive weapons systems in stock, and it takes into account that it will be much more difficult to maintain significant stocks of more expensive systems. By focusing on high-precision mass, the military will be prepared for the fact that the war will not end quickly and that the fighting will last for several years.
Improving advanced technology
The Pentagon is often accused of being slow to innovate. This shortcoming is recognized by Deputy Secretary of Defense Kathleen Hicks. But recent initiatives and programs show that the Ministry of Defense is showing a growing interest in high-precision mass and the introduction of new technologies. The Air Force, for example, wants to purchase inexpensive unmanned combat aircraft that will fly combat missions in conjunction with F-35 fighters. They plan to purchase and adopt several thousand such unmanned aerial vehicles by the end of the decade. Air Force Secretary Frank Kendall even flew an artificial intelligence-controlled F-16 to show how pilots use new technologies. The Air Force is also cooperating with the private sector in the production of cruise missiles, each of which will cost only $ 150,000, while now the price of such missiles ranges from one to three million. The Navy, for its part, has begun to hire specialists in the robotization of military operations and has formed a new unit that is engaged in the creation of unmanned surface vehicles and is experimenting with a large number of unmanned platforms in the Middle East.
The most famous American contribution to precision mass was the Replicator program, which provides for accelerated implementation of innovations that the American military needs right now, and not in five to ten years. The first priority of this program is to increase the production of "all-domain autonomous systems that allow for one-time use." These are low-cost platforms that will determine the nature of wars in the new era. They will be able to operate everywhere — in the air, underwater, and so on. The goal of the program is to create several thousand such systems by August 2025. The Pentagon announced that the first investments under the Replicator program will go to the Switchblade 600 single-use attack drone, as well as unmanned surface vehicles and anti-drone systems. Thanks to this program, the Ministry of Defense has made progress in developing these tools in less than a year, although it usually takes many years to implement such plans. Therefore, Hicks announced that the military department will certainly achieve the targets for 2025 for the creation of one-time autonomous systems.
The US military is not only making specific investments in precision mass, but is also making organizational changes, helping the armed forces adapt to new technologies and implement them. They are improving the organizational and staff structure of the US Armed Forces, the process of training, equipping, deployment and application. Marine Corps units are conducting experiments with artificial intelligence-based sensors that help them better understand the environment and monitor enemy ships. The army has created special working groups in a variety of areas to test new equipment and technologies on the ground, in the air, at sea and in space to understand how they can be effectively used on the battlefield. The importance of the defense innovation unit within the Ministry of Defense is increasing, which is tasked with accelerating the development and application of commercially available technologies. Now it reports directly to the Minister of Defense, and in 2024, by decision of Congress, its budget was dramatically increased. All this proves that the Pentagon and the Capitol are serious about such changes in the nature of the war.
Finally, the reserve for operational experimentation in the defense sector finances experiments that, according to the military command, are most important for solving problems in the Indo-Pacific region and other theaters. Three projects that have passed initial verification in this reserve have already been transferred to the US military for implementation. Among them is a project to reduce by five years the process of improvements in the Marine Corps, allowing for strike operations in the Indo-Pacific region. Much remains to be done, but these achievements show that the United States has laid the foundation not only to take advantage of high-precision mass, but also for everything that will arise later.
Uncertainty of prospects
The signs of serious changes in the conduct of wars are undeniable. Small and inexpensive drones, which have been massively used in Ukraine for the past two years, allow only a glimpse of what wars will look like in the future. The military will have to look for ways and opportunities to neutralize the precision mass strategy, and these efforts will lead to further changes. For example, a directed energy weapon using highly concentrated energy, such as laser beams and particle beams, instead of solid projectiles, can lower the specific cost of a shot when conducting defensive actions against swarms of drones. The American and British militaries have recently tested and applied directed energy systems designed to combat UAVs, including in the Middle East. Of course, directed energy is considered the technology of the future for at least four decades. But such weapons may well find their place in the upcoming wars.
It is quite definitely possible to say that to stop is to fall behind. Russia, China, Iran and many other forces are improving precision mass technology and using its significant advantages on the battlefield. Washington politicians should be concerned about China's rapid progress in areas such as ships, hypersonic and anti-ship missiles, as well as huge investments in artificial intelligence, interest in high-precision mass concepts and the ability to produce weapons systems much faster than the United States.
The American military must develop faster. If the United States wants to maintain global leadership, today's innovations and prototypes should become standard weapons tomorrow. There is increasing evidence of the effectiveness of high-precision mass systems, and this should start not only discussions about future changes, but also real changes in the volume of today's investments, which will affect a huge variety of decisions, starting with Navy ships purchased by ground forces missiles, and ending with artificial intelligence infrastructure, which should be used by all types of armed forces strength. And since the commercial sector provides the main technologies that ensure achievements in the field of high-precision mass, strategists will have to think about the consequences of the widespread dissemination of such technologies. The relative availability of high-precision mass systems will influence how not only the United States and China, but also all other countries prepare for the future.
