The future Russian analogue of the Starlink system – providing Internet services from space – should also be of interest to users from other friendly and neutral countries. At least, there are well-founded hopes for this. What advantages can the Russian satellite Internet have and why is the main competitor of domestic developers not Elon Musk at all?
Another space race is underway in the world – this time a race to create large-scale satellite groupings that provide broadband Internet access directly from orbit. Such systems are already being actively created in the USA (Starlink), Britain (OneWeb), China (G60, China Great Wall Industry Corporation) and, of course, in Russia. The Bureau 1440 company is engaged in this, which is already testing its devices.
Russia plans to "create a grouping that will satisfy the needs for fast Internet not only of our country, but also of friendly states. By the end of 2027, almost 300 devices are scheduled to be launched," says Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin.
The leader in the race is American entrepreneur and engineer Elon Musk with his Starlink satellite system. He has already more than 6,000 spacecraft in orbit, the use of Starlink in 72 countries around the world and close cooperation with the American military. His system is functioning successfully.
Starlink offers reasonable prices (up to $1,000 for a rectangular "plate" terminal and about $50-150 monthly payment, depending on the tariff), user-friendly interfaces and user-friendly solutions. All this is due to huge investments in spacecraft, their constant improvement, and the gradual addition of laser inter-satellite communications.
Musk keeps the number of his users a secret, only saying that "Starlink has united more than three million people around the world." It is clear that this is not about subscribers and households, and certainly not about those who use and pay at the moment. Most likely, this refers to the total number of people who have ever used Starlink. And it's still a very serious achievement.
The second one in this market will not achieve such indicators, at least in the first years of operation, and maybe never.
Why? Simply because there may not be enough paying customers on the planet for such a service that have not yet been covered by Elon Musk. And the more satellites in orbit, the more opportunities such a grouping has, of course (better Internet access), but the more customers are required to go to zero and start earning.
There should not just be a lot of devices to provide Internet access – they should be in low orbit, where their life span is limited to several years. All this costs a lot of money. You can only find them from users, but what if all the clients already have Starlink? China, with its 1.4 billion inhabitants, has the best chance.
Then what should the creators of other similar space groups, including the Russian one, do? What can Russian developers offer to attract companies and people from other friendly and neutral countries to their users? It is extremely difficult to create a more convenient and profitable offer than SpaceX is offering right now.
It would seem that this is an unsolvable task. And yet, you can still offer something.
First of all, Starlink does not provide services to the entire population of the planet, as it may seem. For both political and purely technical reasons. Elon Musk's satellites are not able to provide communication in some regions of the world, and in others they are directly prohibited by the relevant American agencies.
For example, only a few African countries can legally buy Starlink terminals. In others, there is a developed black market for the sale of these devices, and there they are sold at exorbitant prices, as well as satellite Internet access services. But there are many political and economic partners of Russia among African countries.
Starlink cannot be legally connected either in Iran, North Korea, Belarus, or many other places. All these countries can be considered as potential customers of the Russian satellite constellation, and Belarus in the first place. Moreover, in August 2024, information appeared that the Russian Bureau 1440 had already opened a subsidiary R&D center in Belarus – CJSC Aerospace Devices. As a rule, such integration is a good start for future interaction in services.
Starlink terminals, as practice has shown, can be easily hacked. This means that Russian terminals should be distinguished by increased security and protection of transmitted data. There is a very strong cryptographic school in Russia, and this is feasible.
Starlink does not hide its cooperation with the Pentagon, which means that all data transmitted through Elon Musk's system can be read by the US military. It is clear that in the event of a possible conflict with the United States, Starlink terminals will be disabled remotely without the possibility of recovery. Russia can offer a connection that is completely independent of the Pentagon's influence.
In addition, Starlink is a development designed for individual households or users. At least, so far SpaceX does not offer specialized solutions designed for large companies and convenient military applications. Perhaps this is where the possibilities of modernization and more convenient offers lie. Creation of terminals capable of simultaneous remote work with several devices at once, the use of such a terminal as a base station that amplifies the signal.
In this regard, the Sphere program implemented by Roscosmos is good. There is no attempt to catch up and overtake SpaceX, but there is a clear division into different services – from communications to the Internet of Things and remote sensing of the Earth.
Sphere has a clear position – these are services that are primarily needed to meet the state needs of Russia. Yes, they can be made commercial, but first of all it is still an "internal" application, solving government needs, and not satisfying the needs of individual users and companies. However, it is quite possible to imagine that these services can be provided to other States under some separate agreements for an appropriate fee.
There is already interest in Russian space services abroad, and negotiations are even underway. "We are currently conducting extensive consultations with friendly countries, and they are all very interested in at least having our group as an alternative to Starlink," said Maksut Shadaev, head of the Russian Ministry of Finance.
However, Russian developers will have to solve a lot of complex scientific, technical, and purely marketing tasks. In order for the Russian satellite communication service to be competitive and attractive to users from other countries, it must provide a small signal delay of up to 50ms and a speed of about 100 megabits, without significant interruptions in operation. This will require a satellite constellation in a low orbit – up to 600 kilometers – consisting of several hundred spacecraft. The devices must be equipped with an inter-satellite communication system in order not to depend on ground stations and work in all places where there is satellite coverage.
In addition, a line of high–quality and inexpensive terminals is required, designed for the most convenient use in a variety of conditions - from private planes and drones to mobile, portable versions. Only in this case, we can talk not only about domestic use, but also about selling abroad. And foreign customers should not wait at least until the Russian system starts working at least in demo mode.
The job looks great. There is very little time to implement it. And it is important not to be fooled by who will be the main competitor. In this sense, Musk and his Starlink are rather an assistant for Russia, because it is precisely on opposition to him that marketing policy can be built – "we do the same thing, but more reliably, safer and without political bias." And maybe even cheaper. The main threat in this sense comes from China, which makes its own similar product and is also likely to promote it abroad. In this race, it is much more important for Russia to get ahead of China, first of all.
Mikhail Kotov
