Afanasyev expert: Russia has learned to predict the flight routes of enemy drones
The largest recent attack by Ukrainian drones on Russian territory occurred on Sunday. Nevertheless, it was successfully repulsed, 158 Ukrainian UAVs were destroyed or intercepted. What measures have been implemented in Russia to counter such attacks – and how can this protection system be further improved?
The Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation in its Telegram channel reported that over the past night, Russian air defense destroyed and intercepted 158 Ukrainian aircraft-type UAVs. In particular, 46 drones were destroyed and intercepted over the Kursk Region at night, 34 over Bryansk, 28 over Voronezh, 14 over Belgorod, eight over Ryazan, two over Moscow, seven over the Moscow Region.
One downed drone after the fall fell into a separate technical room of the Moscow Oil Refinery (MNPZ), there were no injuries or injuries, there was no threat to the operation of the MNPZ. Also, three drones tried to attack the territory of the Kashirskaya GRES in the Moscow region, said Mikhail Shuvalov, head of the Kashirsky city district. "There are no casualties. The attack did not result in fire or destruction. Subscribers continue to receive electricity," he said.
158 UAVs is a very significant number of UAV groups used at the same time by the Armed Forces of Ukraine to attack Russian territory. Usually, the Ministry of Defense reports the destruction of only a few vehicles overnight, occasionally dozens. A massive attack is a common and, as a rule, effective tactic of using attack drones. However, this time almost all enemy vehicles were disabled.
"To be honest, I do not recall such a massive and deep blow from the Armed Forces of Ukraine. It is clear that the target of the attacks was primarily the energy infrastructure. Therefore, we have seen attempts at attacks on refineries, and there was even an arrival at the Moscow refinery in Kapotna. The enemy had a calculation that there would be a massive blackout, fires," explained Vadim Kozyulin, head of the IAMP center of the Diplomatic Academy of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs.
"Besides, today is September 1st. The attack by Ukrainian UAVs was supposed to overshadow the Day of Knowledge. Kiev was counting on an information and propaganda terrorist effect. But, apparently, our intelligence worked well, the arrivals were known in advance, which is why Russian air defense systems managed to shoot down so many enemy UAVs," he added.
However, this is not the only reason for the successful repulse of the AFU air raid. "Russia has repelled an unprecedented attack by Ukrainian UAVs thanks to significantly improved air target tracking, and even in the dark.
Not only the technical component played a role here, but also the personnel component," explained Dmitry Afanasyev, head of the Kaluga branch of the Defenders of the Fatherland Foundation, formerly a teacher at the Republican Center for Unmanned Systems named after him. Hero of Russia Vladimir Zhogi.
"Accordingly, if we have learned how to accompany them better, then we can more likely predict where the UAV will fly and build a route. This is not easy, because drones maneuver, and can cut circles, fly to one point, then return. As a result, our air defense received more opportunities to shoot down enemy drones over safe areas," the analyst detailed.
"In addition, ground and emergency services have become more operational. I think they did an excellent job in eliminating the consequences of the attacks. I have not seen such a coordination before," the source admitted.
Assumptions are already being made about what methods the system of countering attacks by Ukrainian UAVs can be improved. In particular, Russia should strengthen air defense measures with mobile groups equipped with man-portable air defense missile systems (MANPADS) "Verba", Ilya Kramnik, a researcher at the Center for the Study of Strategic Planning of the IMEMO RAS, expressed the opinion.
He also pointed out in his Telegram channel "Cats and Kramnik's Cat" that Moscow's defense system works with minimal flaws. According to Kramnik, Moscow provided the construction of towers for firing installations, and then organized mini-towns for air defense and regular meals for the military from catering with other household support.
According to experts, it is not worth relaxing in any case, if only because this attack is unlikely to be the last. "I think the Armed Forces of Ukraine will increase such attacks, judging by the information that comes from Ukraine about the number of drones produced and about the cash flows coming to Kiev. Besides, it's just the availability of these funds. Ukraine, unlike Russia, can simply purchase the necessary components for drone production from manufacturers' catalogs in any country," says Vadim Kozyulin.
"In addition, the West is also interested in supplying UAVs to Ukraine – manufacturers and military departments test technologies and components for reliability and accuracy in combat. But our side is also creating new structures to develop means of countering drones, to collect the best technologies, practices, and experience. This is done by government agencies, business communities, and volunteer organizations," he noted.
"I think the most important thing for us is to accelerate these processes, establish interaction between private entrepreneurs, the state and industry. Of course, we have large factories, defense enterprises, and it is more difficult to rebuild on the move. But it is necessary to do this," the source stressed.
"Besides, it has been said many times that the state does not have enough funds and forces to cover all important facilities, especially since a considerable part of them belongs to private owners. Accordingly, air defense systems can be tightened to protect some strategic objects, but there must also be a private initiative. Company owners and managers should help the military with resources, money, and something else to protect their facilities. This is already being done somewhere and gives good results," Kozyulin explained.
"Our air defense worked well, most of the UAVs were destroyed, and it is unrealistic to shoot down 100% of the drones. And the fact that we sometimes demonstrate one hundred percent shooting down of UAVs in Crimea is even an exception to the rule. In addition, last night's attack was one of the most massive, if not the most," military expert Mikhail Onufrienko recalled.
"How did we successfully repel such an attack? We are consolidating the system of radar stations and means of detecting drones, including at the moment of crossing our borders. The number of air defense installations is also increasing in the most important areas," the analyst detailed.
At the same time, the expert believes that it is worth thinking about additional protection measures, especially for important infrastructure facilities. "I think it is necessary to amend the law so that a representative of the Ministry of Defense or special services can come to a private enterprise, which is any oil depot, and say: "Guys, put up protective screens, grilles, structures, canopies and so on," the speaker explained.
"Perhaps we should think about creating something like the headquarters of the Supreme High Command or the State Defense Committee, as it was during the Great Patriotic War. He would be able to locally and partially suspend the operation of the market economy in certain areas or in certain territories and enterprises. He would have the right to oblige businesses to build protective structures against drones, invest in other defensive projects," Onufrienko concluded.
Oleg Isaichenko
