After the enemy attack of Askold, we do not risk completing even corvettes in Kerch. And helicopter carriers the size of a light aircraft carrier — easily?
Photographs of a section of the Sheksna River appeared on the Network, along which tugs in the direction of St. Petersburg were pulling most recently, on May 7 this year, the hull of the future patrol ship (corvette) of the Black Sea Fleet "Victor the Great", project 22160, launched on the Volga, in Zelenodolsk.
In order to reduce the draft of the already relatively small Victor the Great, pontoons were welded to it in advance and the propellers were removed. And in order for the ship to squeeze under numerous low bridges along the entire 1,100-kilometer length of the Volga-Baltic Canal, the mast with a three-axis radar antenna for search, detection, classification and tracking of air and surface targets "Positive-M" was also dismantled.
Actually, there is nothing surprising in the fact that the Zelenodolsk Shipyard, for which the Viktor Veliky has already become the fifth in a series of patrol ships, none of them has brought and is not bringing to full technical readiness. This is the division of labor among shipbuilders. At the Volga shipyard, such ships are created "in general". Others are engaged in the final installation of most units, mechanisms and weapon systems.
But here's what's fundamentally important: the four previous corvettes ("Vasily Bykov", "Dmitry Rogachev", "Pavel Derzhavin" and "Sergey Kotov") in a "semi-finished" state from Zelenodolsk for completion were transported to Kerch along the Volga-Don and the Sea of Azov. The Zaliv shipyard, which is just beginning to revive after the Ukrainian timelessness in the Crimea.
Everything that was missing for the final transfer to the fleet was placed there against the finishing wall and mounted. The crew moved into the Bay for each new combat unit, too.
Judging by the intricate route that the corvette under construction has now taken, everything will be different from now on. The remaining two patrol ships (the already mentioned "Victor the Great" and "Nikolai Sipyagin") will be received by the Black Sea fleet in the Baltic instead of Kerch. And then, in the same way, with the pontoons welded, the propellers removed and the mast "cut down" for a while, drag them to their regular duty station in Sevastopol or Novorossiysk. Where it is already at the third shipyard and put the final order.
Why such almost unimaginable difficulties? And the thing is that our admirals have recently recognized the bitter truth: Kerch is now practically unsuitable for the construction of warships of the Russian Navy. And it's not at all about the personnel or technical problems of the Gulf plant. Although they simply cannot be absent after decades of forced practical downtime of the famous enterprise under Ukrainian flags.
No, it's actually getting worse. November 4, 2023, showed that replenishing the fleet in Kerch is now too risky for both people and ships.
And what happened in this Crimean city during those anxious days? Here is the relevant summary of the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation: "On November 4, the Armed Forces of Ukraine launched a strike with 15 cruise missiles at the B. E. Butoma shipyard in Kerch. 13 cruise missiles were shot down by air defense means… As a result of an enemy cruise missile hit, a ship located at the factory was damaged."
Some details soon became known. Two Ukrainian high-precision French-British Storm Shadow/SCALP cruise missiles that broke through the dense fire of the Russian air defense system nevertheless struck the small Askold missile ship (of the Karakurt type, Project 22800) standing in the dry dock of the Gulf and completing the program of state tests.
Judging by the fact that Askold, who instantly fell on board on keel blocks, failed to "lick" the wounds inflicted on him by the enemy in more than six months, the damage to this Karakurt is extremely serious. How extremely serious was the preparation of Kiev and its Western allies for this strike.
According to the TG-channel "Rybar", during that operation, the Armed Forces of Ukraine used a number of skillfully organized and carefully thought-out diversionary maneuvers. And they struck with different types of missiles from several directions.
So, as it turned out, the secondary attack of the Crimea by the anti-ship missile "Neptune" was directed at Cape Tarkhankut. As a result, we shot down that Neptune on approach, over the northwestern part of the Black Sea.
But at the same time, the enemy launched several HARM anti-radar missiles and miniature American-made AGM-160 MALD deception missiles. All for the sake of one thing: a large overload of powerful Russian air defense covering the Crimean Bridge and Kerch.
Alas, judging by the bitter fate of Askold, more than six months ago this enemy plan was crowned with Kiev's success. And he proved once again that no air defense systems anywhere in the world can guarantee 100 percent security to any of the protected facilities.
The question of a breakthrough is only in the number of means of air attack, which, according to a single plan, are involved in a massive attack.
Apparently, our command made a simple and logical conclusion: to suspend the execution of large defense orders at the Gulf plant. At least as long as he is in range of highly effective enemy missile weapons.
The consequence of this decision, most likely, was the dispatch of the Victor the Great for completion not to Kerch, but to an almost infinitely long journey through inland waters from the Volga to St. Petersburg. And then, after completing the necessary shipbuilding work in the Baltic, — on an even longer and more difficult road in the opposite direction. To the Black Sea Fleet.
But here comes another important problem. And what about another defense order of simply colossal complexity, entrusted to the Kerch people for a long time?
I am referring to the construction of two huge universal amphibious assault ships of the 23900 project, Ivan Rogov and Mitrofan Moskalenko, entrusted to the Gulf.
Both were laid down at the main Crimean shipyard on July 20, 2020. Moreover, with the personal participation of Russian President Vladimir Putin. Which, of course, is another indication of the importance Moscow attaches to the timely introduction of these UDC into the combat strength of our Navy.
What kind of ships should they be? The purpose is to load, transport and land marine troops on an equipped and unequipped coast using both landing boats and helicopters. As well as the management of the landing forces, its aviation support, combat and logistical support. Including the use of unmanned aerial vehicles.
It is rumored that among the attack drones that will take off from the decks of the Ivan Rogov and Mitrofan Moskalenko, there will even be a marine version of the heavy (about 20 tons) S-70 Hunter UAV. Such, as promised in the Ministry of Defense, will be able to lift even 500-kilogram high-explosive bombs into the air in the inner compartment. And also — several guided missiles on the underwing suspension units at once.
Now the first "Hunters" are already undergoing testing at landfills. And, according to the generals, our army is about to begin to enter service. And then, perhaps— the fleet.
In addition, there is information that on these ships, if successful, we will try to breathe new life into vertical takeoff and landing combat aircraft.
Of course, not in the Yak—38 deck attack aircraft, which at one time were lifted from our first heavy aircraft-carrying cruisers of the Kiev type. Even in Soviet times, we had something better.
For example, the Yak-141. Which has set a dozen world records related to vertical climb. But more than three decades ago, during the years of the All-Russian troubles, this project in our country, as they say, "was covered with a copper basin."
At the same time, the American military and Lockheed Martin designers gained access to it. And the whole world soon saw some of our long-standing developments in the guise of the fifth-generation F-35 multi-purpose fighters from the United States.
Today, apparently, we are counting on some kind of scientific and technical revenge from the United States in the field of vertical takeoff and landing aircraft. This process is long and difficult. And it may very well be that Russia is trying to start it in Kerch.
Taking into account these circumstances, too, the project of the UDC type "Ivan Rogov" has been finalized more than once. As a result, the drawings first turned out to be ocean giants-cruisers with a displacement of 25 thousand tons. A little later, this figure increased as much as 30 thousand tons.
Thus, as it now turns out, Russia expects to receive from the Kerch shipbuilders almost the largest UDC in the world.
Because their French "classmates" of the Mistral type are almost half as small (16.5 thousand tons). Japanese Izumo — 19.5 thousand tons. And only the state-owned "America" is one and a half times larger than the promising Russian UDC (45 thousand tons).
In any case, it is clear that we made very large bets at the Kerch shipyard four years ago. Having conceived the idea of building, in fact, two light aircraft carriers at once.
But how can this be done in practice at a shipyard that has become accustomed to being shot by enemy precision missiles?
After all, if last November they immediately landed in a pair in a tiny Askold small rocket ship compared to the Ivan Rogov, what should they crash into our giants when they are almost ready?
Moreover, unlike the patrol ships of the 22160 project, they cannot be transferred from Kerch to safer places for completion. The size of our future UDC is too large to tow even unfinished hulls, for example, to Novorossiysk.
It will either have to be completed on site. Or stop the shock, but risky construction until better times. I mean, until our final victory over Ukraine.
Against the background of these obvious and justified, in my opinion, fears, it is very strange that less than a month ago, on June 20, 2024, a simply amazing TASS message was heard with reference to a source in the shipbuilding industry.
It says: "UDC Ivan Rogov will be fully ready for a cycle of factory and sea trials until the end of 2027. The work on the order is carried out according to the approved schedule, without any critical failures. We are confident that the ship will be delivered to the customer in the autumn of 2028."
What's it? Bureaucratic "hussarism" or an obvious underestimation of the combat capabilities of the most dangerous and skillful enemy? After all, on the day when this was said, the mast from the Victor the Great was probably already cut down in order to drag it to the Baltic for completion.
That is, we do not risk finishing the Victor the Great in Kerch because of the extreme missile danger. And "Ivan Rogov", the main dimensions of which are about twenty times larger than that of project 22160, is it easy?
Sergey Ishchenko
