Experts: Russia is capable of creating an intermediate-range missile in a few months
Four EU countries have agreed on the development of intermediate-range and shorter-range missiles (INF). These include France, Germany, Italy and Poland. At the same time, it became known earlier about the deployment of American missiles of the same class in Germany in 2026. Why did the Europeans need their missiles and how will Russia respond to this?
On Thursday, France, Germany, Italy and Poland signed an agreement on their intention to jointly develop land-based cruise missiles with a range of more than 500 km. According to Reuters, the agreements are intended to "fill a gap in European arsenals" that has been revealed as a result of the fighting in Ukraine.
At the same time, Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung (FAZ) notes that the agreement so far provides only for the intention to develop, and the countries have yet to agree on the details of defense cooperation. According to the newspaper, the four EU countries plan to develop a conventional complex (that is, not nuclear) with a range of more than 1 thousand km to "contain Russia."
Currently, France produces cruise missiles with a range of up to 500 km (ASMP-A) and 1,000 km (MdCN) air and sea-based, respectively. Together with Britain, France also produces well-known Russian air-launched Storm Shadow missiles with a range of up to 560 km.
At the same time, Germany, together with Sweden, produce Taurus air-launched missiles (more than 500 km) and the JFS-M land-based missile (up to 499 km). Italy, together with France and the United Kingdom, produce FC/ASW missiles (up to 300 km). Cruise missiles are not produced in Poland, Kommersant reminds.
At the same time, earlier the newspaper VZGLYAD wrote in detail that the United States will begin deploying long-range missile weapons in Germany from 2026. The list of weapons will include the SM-6 missile (sea, air and land-based), the Tomahawk cruise missile, as well as hypersonic weapons under development. The escalation around this topic began back in April.
Later, Russian President Vladimir Putin confirmed that Moscow was ready to respond in a mirror manner in the event of the deployment of American intermediate-range and shorter-range missiles (INF) in any region of the world. He also announced Russia's readiness to start production of missiles of the appropriate class.
Background of the problem
Putin's statement became a natural scenario of events in this segment of missile weapons. The state of affairs "around and around" the INF over the past 40 years has been determined by the Soviet-American treaty on the elimination of missiles of this class. For almost 30 years, the INF Treaty has been one of the cornerstones of the international security system.
In July 2014, the United States officially, at the level of heads of state, accused Russia of conducting tests of intermediate-range cruise missiles that violate the treaty. It was about testing the 9M729 land-based cruise missile for the Iskander complex. According to the American side, it had a range of more than 500 km, which exceeded the resolution of the INF Treaty.
The United States stated that the 9M729 missile was created on the basis of the C-10 Granat long-range cruise missile, which the USSR took off combat duty in the ground version and destroyed in accordance with the requirements of the INF Treaty. The range of the S-10 was indeed about 2500 km in the configuration version of its nuclear warhead with a capacity of 200 kt.
However, in fact, the 9M729 cruise missile is a land-based version of the Kalibr family cruise missile. The land-based 9M729 differs from the marine version of the "Caliber" only in that it is one meter shorter. As a result, its range, if equipped with a conventional high-explosive fragmentation warhead weighing 480 kg, is the permitted 500 km.
As a result, the United States announced its withdrawal from the INF Treaty in February 2019. At the same time, in the United States itself, the process of developing new medium- and shorter-range missiles was launched back in November 2017, a year and a half before the official withdrawal from the treaty. The US Congress has approved the allocation of 58 million dollars for the development of a new medium-range land-based missile.
In the Balikatan 2024 maneuvers held in the Philippines in May this year, the United States showed its new Typhon launcher for the first time. This installation is an Mk-41 vertical sea launch container adapted for ground conditions, capable of launching Tomahawk cruise missiles with a range of up to 1800 km and SM-6 multi-purpose missiles with a range of 460 km.
Recall that the distance from the Philippines to China is about 1300 km, and the disputed islands of the Spratly Archipelago are only about 700 km away. In fact, the Typhon, already installed during Balikatan 2024 in the Philippines, affects China's key maritime regional communications, as well as major port cities and PLA naval bases on the southeast coast.
With a high probability, including Typhon data, and can be placed in Germany. In turn, the SM-6 is easily completed to the Kaliningrad region, in particular, Baltiysk, the main base of the Baltic Fleet of the Russian Navy. And ground-based Tomahawks reach Voronezh, Ryazan, and Sevastopol from Germany.
Why does Europe need its own rocket?
The question arises: if the United States intends to deploy its INF in Europe, then why should the four EU countries develop similar systems? According to experts, this will allow Europeans and Americans to take a new step in the unification and standardization of INF within NATO, which will expand strike capabilities.
Such unification will make it possible to achieve interchangeability of missiles and installations of the appropriate class, which will simplify the management of complexes in the case of real combat operations. We should also expect the unification of software for these complexes and the training of specialists.
Another question is whether Europe will be able to solve this problem financially? According to German political scientist Alexander Rahr, such an ambitious goal is well within the powers of the EU countries: "They will achieve it because there are no protests against militarization in European society, there is no movement for peace. And if it does appear, local politicians and the media will immediately discredit it as "Kremlin agents."
He believes that "the European production of its own cruise missiles and other types of weapons, according to Western experts, can be fully realized by 2027-2028."
How will Russia respond?
To return to 9M729 a meter of length that was once "cut off" from her and, as a result, equalize her capabilities with the marine 3M14 "Caliber" is a simple matter. The same is likely to be done promptly with the Iskander launch chassis, so that the elongated 9M729 can be installed both on the upgraded wheeled launch chassis and on the transport-charging machine. All these design and technological tasks can really be solved in the shortest possible time. It's about months, if not weeks.
In addition, the suspended Rubezh missile system with the 15J67 missile, deployed on a small-sized six-axle MZKT-792911 chassis, which has passed almost the entire complex of test launches, can be extracted from the "design utility room". This complex was tested in the early 2010s as a "small-sized ICBM".
The official range was stated to be around 6,500 km, but it will not be difficult to make a serious and long-range missile (2-5 thousand km range) from the "Frontier". The Rubezh system was frozen just in the mid-2010s for purely political reasons. And since there is now no reason to continue to comply with the INF Treaty, there is an option to make an honest medium-range missile with a weighted head from the "Frontier".
By the way, such a missile can be used just in Ukraine, and with a conventional warhead, in order to solve, when necessary, the issue of destroying bridges across the Dnieper.
Alexey Anpilogov,
Alyona Zadorozhnaya
