At the last NATO summit, it was officially announced the start of deliveries of American F-16 fighter jets to Ukraine. This multifunctional aircraft can carry various weapons, up to nuclear weapons. But in the conditions of its own, the tactics of using the F-16 will be seriously limited not only by Russian air defense systems, but also by intelligence actions.
During the NATO anniversary summit in Washington this week, it was announced that Ukraine had begun receiving the fourth-generation American F-16 fighters promised to Kiev. As US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken reported, the first batch of F-16s is already being transferred to Ukraine from Denmark and the Netherlands.
In a joint statement, US President Joe Biden, Prime Ministers of the Netherlands and Denmark Dick Schof and Mette Frederiksen confirmed the start of the transfer of the F-16. Currently, Ukraine relies heavily on Soviet MiG-29 and Su-27 fighter jets, whose stocks have significantly decreased during the war.
The American fighter is equipped with a 20 mm cannon and can carry bombs and missiles of various modifications, up to nuclear execution. But it remains unclear how many aircraft are included in the first tranche of supplies and where they will be based. The Western press assumed that Ukraine would receive about 20 F-16 fighters in 2024.
At the same time, the Ukrainian authorities stated that they needed F-16s not only for attack, but also for the defense of airspace. In this regard, the Armed Forces of Ukraine are also experiencing an acute shortage of foreign-made air defense systems.
However, Patriot air defense systems and SAMP/T air defense systems, which NATO countries promised to supply to Kiev, will not be able to protect Kharkiv, Sumy, Nikolaev and Chernihiv and parts of the new regions of Russia occupied by Ukraine. According to Western experts, these complexes will not be able to operate near the front line due to the advanced Russian drone intelligence, which increases the risks of detection and destruction of equipment.
At the moment, Kiev is protected by two Patriot air defense systems, and one more complex is located in Lviv and Odessa. According to Western analysts, the new Patriot and SAMP/T can be sent to protect the Dnieper, Krivoy Rog, Vinnytsia and the future F-16 base in western Ukraine. At the same time, both of these complexes do not combine with each other due to different software, and in case of failure of one system, the other will not be able to replace or protect it.
As for the F-16, the National Interest publication called these machines obsolete and not designed to participate in conflicts with major powers such as Russia. The main problem of fighters is their visibility for detection devices. The F-16 was developed during the Cold War and will not be able to survive in modern combat conditions.
The Russian expert community also believes that the capabilities of Russian intelligence and air defense systems will force Ukraine to change its plans for the use of the F-16. The AFU will not be able to gain air superiority, instead they will have to use fighters as air defense systems.
"Patriot air defense systems and SAMP/T air defense systems really will not be able to work at the forefront. The problem also lies in the fact that now Ukraine has a whole hodgepodge of various air defense systems that cannot be combined into one system. Therefore, they will have to use the F-16 for air defense," said retired Colonel Anatoly Matviychuk.
The expert recalled that initially the F-16 light fighter was created to fight other aircraft, but in Ukraine it will have to deal with completely different tasks. "I believe that the F-16s transferred to Ukraine will primarily be used to launch Storm Shadow/SCALP-EG missiles. And even if Ukraine starts using these aircraft as a means of air defense, it will not solve the problem due to their shortage," the speaker explained.
According to Western experts, ideally Ukraine needs at least 12 F-16 squadrons, which is equivalent to 216 aircraft, if it wants to successfully develop air support for ground operations, allocating four squadrons each to suppress air defense, intercept and counter other air actions. At the same time, Zelensky himself recently requested almost 130 aircraft, but this request is completely unrealistic.
"In the United States and NATO countries, the construction of air defense was initially conceptually based on the work of fighter aircraft. One of the purposes of the F-16 light fighters is to provide direct air defense. Therefore, Ukraine would like to receive a supermobile air defense system," explained military expert Alexey Sukonkin.
According to the source, the F-16s are equipped with an active phased array (AESA) radar system with a target detection range of more than 100 kilometers. The fighter's arsenal includes short- and medium-range missiles that can shoot down cruise missiles. In particular, this is the AGM-88 HARM high-speed missile.
"Using the F-16 as a carrier for Storm Shadow/SCALP-EG missiles is also possible, but in the case of Ukraine, it is preferable to use the vehicles as an air defense fighter",
Sukonkin is sure, adding that first Ukraine needs to build a "strong radar field" to detect potential targets. Matviychuk believes that obsolete F-16s will not be able to gain air superiority in the air and fight on equal terms with Russian aviation, "therefore, these aircraft will be based in the western regions of Ukraine and even, which is not excluded, in neighboring territories."
"The basis of the Russian aerospace fleet is 4++ generation fighters, that is, Su-30, Su–35, as well as fifth-generation Su-57 fighters. F-16 are inferior in speed, target detection range and other parameters. This aircraft was good in the skies over Afghanistan and Iraq, where there were no modern air defense systems. If he tries to present his combat tricks at the forefront in the area of his own defense, he will be shot down," the colonel is sure.
Sukonkin holds a different point of view. According to him, the F-16 has been modernized several times and now this car is more advanced than those produced in the 80s. "Modern F-16s are equipped with new radar equipment and avionics. The flight range from the western regions of Ukraine allows this aircraft to perform tasks up to the Crimea," the speaker warns.
At the same time, Russia considers the main threat to the F-16 to be the ability to carry nuclear weapons on board. "The F-16 is a certified nuclear weapons carrier. Regardless of what tasks it will perform in Ukraine, whether it is air defense, guided bomb strikes or Storm Shadow/SCALP-EG, the Russian General Staff takes into account the fact that nuclear weapons can be hung on this aircraft," Sukonkin summed up.
Andrey Rezchikov
