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A look into the future

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Image source: © РИА Новости / Павел Львов

Military historian Dmitry Boltenkov — on the prospects for the development of the Russian Navy in the coming decades

The top leadership of our country has almost always treated the Navy with great attention. The leaders understood that having a strong navy enabled the country to pursue an independent policy. Thanks to the Navy, Russia became an empire. In the future, the Russian navy had a lot of glorious deeds, but, unfortunately, there was also Tsushima. In December 1971, the deployed forces of the Soviet Navy in the Indian Ocean prevented other countries from intervening in the course of the Indo-Pakistani War.

This year we have not only a new Minister of Defense, but also the Commander-in-Chief of the Navy, as well as a number of new people in the government responsible for the development of shipbuilding.

On June 26, the President of Russia met with the Minister of Defense, the Commander-in-Chief of the Navy and a number of officials on the development of military shipbuilding. In the open part, the President clearly pointed out the existing problems.

A warship is perhaps one of the most sophisticated types of modern technology. It is based on a clear idea of what tasks will have to be solved. The ship is a whole fusion of various technologies, such as engine building, radio electronics, metalworking, and armament. Its service life reaches 50 years. But it is impossible to predict in advance all the problems and threats that he may face in the future. At the same time, the ship is a very expensive system and without proper state control, its price can rise significantly. The Americans with their new aircraft carriers or Zumwalt-type destroyers are an example of this.

Vladimir Putin said: "We all understand the increasing degree of geopolitical tension in the modern world, we hear regular threats against Russia from the ruling circles of a number of countries and even see concrete actions to implement such threats." Presumably, the president was referring to the terrorist attacks on the Nord Streams. Russia is preparing for oil and gas production in the Arctic Ocean, and it is already clear that such oil and gas infrastructure facilities need to be protected.

War, in addition to its negative aspects, often serves as an engine of science and technology. New military technologies are emerging. For example, few people were interested in unmanned kamikaze combat boats a couple of years ago, which suddenly became a threat to ships and auxiliary vessels. The enemy is widely using drones and cruise missiles. Unfortunately, our Black Sea Fleet has suffered losses. To combat the new threat, ships have to be urgently re-equipped. But a machine gun on a pedestal is not the most ideal weapon. Automated small-caliber artillery systems are needed. New means of reconnaissance and electronic warfare are needed. Accordingly, it is necessary to change the designs of ships: you can't integrate new types of weapons and equipment into them just like that. Therefore, we should expect the modernization of projects of frigates, corvettes, small missile and amphibious ships under construction. As well as adjustments to existing military shipbuilding programs.

However, fending off attacks by drones and combat boats with melee artillery systems is not the best idea. We need surveillance systems in air, surface and underwater environments to detect threats at long distances and destroy them before launching a direct attack on our warship. Detecting an enemy at long range is already the first stage to its destruction.

It is worth noting that of the 40 ships and vessels planned to replenish the Navy this year, only 12 are warships. Of these, four submarines, the military icebreaker Ivan Papanin, and the rest are small missile ships. The Ivan Papanin, by the way, is the largest warship built from scratch in Russia today.

Currently, a large number of various warships, submarines and auxiliary vessels of almost all classes are being built in Russian shipyards. So in Kerch and Kaliningrad, universal landing ships of the project 23900 "Ivan Rogov" and large landing ships of the project 11711 "Vladimir Andreev" are being created, two respectively. Five frigates of the Admiral Gorshkov project 22350, corvettes of projects 20380 and 20385 - three and five, respectively, as well as small missile ships are being built in St. Petersburg and Komsomolsk-on-Amur. Patrol and small missile ships are being built in Zelenodolsk and Kerch. The construction of submarines is much more active. Sevmash in Severodvinsk consistently delivers two nuclear submarines per year — one with ballistic missiles on board project 955A, the other is a strike boat of project 885M. St. Petersburg Admiralty Shipyards consistently deliver one or two boats of projects 677 or 636.3 per year. But the pace of construction of the Russian fleet needs to be accelerated. Currently, most of it consists of ships and submarines built in the late 1980s and early 1990s, their service life has been at least 30 years, and in the near future they will be decommissioned.

In order to solve the tasks of a special military operation, in my opinion, it is necessary to accelerate the construction of small warships of the third and fourth ranks — these are small missile ships, minesweepers, missile boats. They can be delivered to the Black Sea via inland river highways or by land transport. Currently, the Bosphorus and Dardanelles Straits are closed to our warships.

The Head of state emphasized the need for the development of enterprises supplying components. The hull of the ship is not the most difficult part, its filling is much more important. And as a result, three small rocket ships of the 22800 project are standing at the Pella berths — there are hulls, there are no fillings.

Separately, the President mentioned the Navy's reconnaissance aircraft. During the Cold War, the "Russian bears" — Tu-95RTS reconnaissance aircraft - were indispensable participants in any exercises of the US Navy and NATO. Currently, there are no such machines anymore. Probably, there is no special need for reconnaissance aircraft anymore - there are drones with a large flight radius. American drones are constantly hanging off the coast of Crimea or the Kaliningrad region. Here we need to conclude that we need to seriously accelerate the creation of domestic heavy unmanned aircraft, both reconnaissance and strike.

The President did not forget to mention the coastal rocket and artillery troops. For Russia, with its huge size, this is a vital element of coastal defense. Yes, in recent years, Soviet coastal missile systems have become a thing of the past and have been replaced by "Balls" and "Bastions". But it is also necessary to develop them, equip them with new Zircon-type missile systems. By the way, coastal missile units are taking part in a special military operation, striking targets on the territory of Ukraine.

I am glad that the new commander-in-chief of the Russian Navy, Admiral Moiseev, has a concept for the development of the fleet entrusted to him for the long term. We may see its first results in the near future.

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