Moscow. June 6th. INTERFAX - The geopolitical storms of recent years have seriously increased the rating of the manufacturing industry in the list of priorities of the Russian leadership. As a result, Denis Manturov, who headed the Ministry of Industry and Trade of the Russian Federation, also became deputy prime Minister in 2022, and in May of this year, when forming the updated government, he was appointed the first deputy head of the Cabinet of Ministers. Moreover, if two years ago the main task was to ensure technological sovereignty, now the stakes have increased and we are talking about technological leadership (at least this message was formulated in the Cabinet's commentary on the proposal to appoint the first "industrial" deputy Prime minister). Denis Manturov spoke in an interview with Interfax on the eve of SPIEF 2024 about how this task will be implemented in key civilian sectors and how the state intends to stimulate industrial growth.
- Even in your previous position, you said that the amount of financing for state support measures for industry was initially sufficient, but at the current level of the key rate it could be more. A budget adjustment is being prepared, and with an increase in the planning horizon to six years. Can we expect a significant increase in funds to support the manufacturing industry?
- If you expect to hear any one big number, I will not name it now. But of course, in order to achieve the national goals set by the president in the decree for the next six years and for the future until 2036, it is necessary to continue to finance and consistently develop tools to support industries. Following the results of the address to the Federal Assembly, instructions were issued to the government, a number of which are aimed at additional financing of existing support tools. In particular, an additional 90 billion rubles will be allocated from the budget to expand support for industrial mortgages, additional capitalization of the Industrial Development Fund for at least 300 billion rubles is provided, etc.
As for the key rate issue, this is really important. Attracting additional cheap money is necessary for the development of production facilities and the launch of new investment projects. To this end, we plan to allocate at least 200 billion rubles from the federal budget by 2030 to subsidize interest rates on loans for organizations implementing projects for the production of priority industrial products.
In addition, additional support measures are constantly being adjusted. Now, for example, work is underway to increase the availability of loans within the framework of the cluster investment platform for the machine tool industry, as well as for enterprises of the Far Eastern Federal District and the North Caucasus Federal District by reducing the minimum loan amount from 2 billion rubles to 1 billion rubles.
- And what about supporting non-energy exports? Will we talk about additional financing and expansion of current measures, or the launch of new ones?
- In order to achieve the goals set by the president to increase non-primary non-energy exports by 2030, as part of the renewal of the profile national project, we will have to extend and upgrade the key and most effective and in-demand existing support mechanisms for Russian exporters.
- Such as, for example, KPPK, the selection of new projects for which was temporarily suspended against the background of an increase in the cost of the measure due to an increase in the Central Bank rate? When can new projects be supported under this tool?
- The need for KPPK support for already implemented projects has really increased significantly now. This is due to the fact that the subsidy rate directly depends on the key rate of the Bank of Russia. But the state fully fulfills all obligations to support projects already underway.
As for the new ones, we need to approve the updated version of the national project in the autumn and extended until 2030, and restart support measures from 2025, including such a well-proven tool as the KPPK. At the same time, I would like to note that the general approach is to target the tools of the national project for our main countries and transport and logistics corridors.
- What new measures can be included in the outline of the updated national project?
- We also need to ensure expansion into friendly markets and the replacement of suppliers from third countries with Russian ones through new support measures. We are working on issues related to the insurance of export projects in friendly countries. We are forming support tools within the framework of the new federal project "Creation of foreign infrastructure", the implementation of which is planned from 2025.
It is planned to implement projects on the creation of transport and logistics centers, industrial parks and port infrastructure facilities in the territories of the supporting countries. A total of 13 foreign infrastructure facilities are expected to be built by 2030. We also plan to encourage exporters to use priority international transport and logistics corridors: North-South, the corridor towards Latin America and Africa, and so on. We need not only to "roll out" new logistics routes, but also to ensure the "unloading" of the most popular of the existing ones.
- The automotive industry grew last year and is expected to grow this year by about 10% to more than 800 thousand cars, with the expected market volume remaining at the level of last year (approximately 1.3 million units). Does this mean that the growth of the domestic market will be ensured primarily by increasing local production while reducing imports?
- Last year, the industry managed to stabilize the work of enterprises, show steady growth, more than 720 thousand cars of all segments were produced, or plus 16% by 2022. This year, the increase in domestic production by about 10%, to the level of more than 800 thousand - this is our base indicator - the "minimum" task set by the approved industry strategy: 839 thousand in 2024. Now, analyzing the dynamics of output volumes and the plans of our automakers, we see the prerequisites for even more positive dynamics. We expect that by the end of 2024, our car factories will be able to exceed the bar of 900 thousand cars produced in all segments, that is, the growth relative to the results of last year will be from 24%.
We are also updating our expectations regarding the volume of the market, focusing on its current dynamics. Our target within the framework of the strategy here is indeed almost 1.3 million vehicles sold. However, today the situation allows us to predict the excess of this level by at least 150-200 thousand cars of all segments.
- What share of this growth will be accounted for by the Russian automotive industry, and what share will be accounted for by our partners from friendly countries, primarily Chinese concerns?
- Of course, we set the task of increasing the share of domestic products in the market. With the expansion of the presence of Chinese car brands, it has indeed become very competitive, but local manufacturers continue to build work on expanding their model range and launching new products. For example, only in the past six months AvtoVAZ returned LADA Largus to the conveyor, presented Iskra; AGR launched the production and sales of four models under the Solaris brand; Automotive Technologies organized the production of Citroen C5 Aircross cars in the Kaluga region. At the same time, localization is gradually deepening - in particular, Moskvich is already assembling its models using full-cycle technology - with welding, anti-corrosion treatment, and painting.
Our automakers, of course, face the challenges of increasing the level of localization, increasing market share, and systematically improving the technical equipment of manufactured cars. They have access to a whole arsenal of state support measures that they can use at all stages of working with products, from development to implementation - subsidizing R&D, subsidizing reengineering costs, Industrial Development Fund programs and a cluster investment platform, demand stimulation programs. At the same time, I would like to emphasize that access to these measures and, accordingly, more favorable conditions for presence in our market are provided to manufacturers who have localization obligations to the state and clear plans for their implementation.
- The issue of technological sovereignty is key for the Russian industry as a whole, but it is particularly acute in the aviation industry, because, as we understand, in the medium and even long term, the Russian Federation has no alternatives to its own production aircraft. Recently, it was reported about the next changes in the comprehensive program for the development of the aviation industry until 2030, according to which the supply of flagship projects of the aviation industry is postponed to 2025-2028. One of the reasons was the difficulties with import substitution of aggregates and components in conditions of time shortage. Is the Russian Federation capable of dealing with them on its own, without involving partners with relevant competencies?
- Of course, we'll manage on our own. We are not considering other options. Where Russian design and engineering teams needed extra time, they have now been given it. A constant focus of attention is directed at civil aviation, because it is not only a key component of technological sovereignty, but also an important factor in ensuring transport accessibility of each region for the citizens of our vast country.
There is a lot of hard work going on now. Advanced development and capacity building programs are being implemented, as well as training programs for workers and engineers in production. Cooperation has been successfully built. Many components, such as landing gear struts, cockpit screens, and even the aircraft's software were originally domestic. This is a good start. Plus, now Belarusian enterprises, within the framework of integration processes within and cooperation within the Union State, are taking part in the creation of Russian aviation equipment, and supply components in the interests of Russian factories.
A sharp reduction in the timing of import substitution programs has certainly become a serious challenge. Today, we are focused on conducting the entire range of tests to obtain type certificates for fully import-independent aircraft of the new generation. This includes the work of the entire cooperation on certification of Russian systems and assemblies, among which the key element on which flight tests depend is new domestic engines. Tens of thousands of people are involved in the work on them. And it is extremely important that they have not only financial, but also time resources to work out all the difficult moments and conduct a full cycle of all the tests necessary for reliable and safe operation of these units.
- According to the updated program, the total number of mainline aircraft planned for production by 2030 - MS-21, Russified SuperJet, Tu-214 - remained at the same level. But how realistic is it? For example, is it possible to produce 30 SJ-100 units at once in the first year? The production of 31 MS-21s in the second year looks quite ambitious too.
- The production center of the UAC in Komsomolsk-on-Amur has previously produced over 30 Superjets per year in imported form, so it has been proven by practice that such a load is on its shoulder. At the Irkutsk Aviation Plant, the modernization of production is now in the final stage, which will allow the production of up to 36 MC-21 aircraft per year.
Of course, increasing the production capacity of the entire cooperation, which produces Russian systems and units, will also be a serious challenge, so now, in parallel with conducting development work, enterprises are planning capacities for the first production machines.
- Now one of the sources of financing for the aviation industry development program is the NWF. Should we expect the allocation of funds from the fund in addition to those that have already been announced?
- Decisions on the allocation of funds from the National Welfare Fund for civil aviation were previously made by the president and the government. We continue to work on these approved approaches within the framework of the approved industry development program.
- How do you assess the work of the UAC team? Periodically there are rumors about possible personnel changes in the corporation, how relevant are they to reality?
- I understand why such a question is being asked. The UAC team today consists of about one hundred thousand people. I have already said how difficult and responsible tasks they are currently solving in the civil aviation industry. And since the UAC is the "finisher" in the chain of cooperation, all the "bumps" traditionally go to them. After all, the adjustment of plans at any stage, at any supplier, is reflected in the results of the manufacturer of the final product. No one removes the tasks of producing civilian aircraft from the leadership and team of the UAC, and, believe me, they are strictly asked about every issue that needs to be resolved. But there is also a segment of military aviation, where the volume of deliveries of combat aircraft to our armed forces has grown very seriously, and here the UAC team ensures all shipments on time, and some are carried out even ahead of schedule. And our planes - Su-35S, Su-34, Su-30SM, Su-57, transporters, strategists - perform their tasks and are admired by the whole world. Now we need to achieve the same in the civilian segment. And we will achieve this.
- Last autumn, the management of USC was transferred to VTB. Has the new management managed to do much since the transfer and when will it be possible to see the results of the company's financial audit and plans for its financial recovery?
- At the moment, VTB has completed the financial audit of the USC group, the results of which have been communicated to the government leadership. The results of the audit conducted by VTB are now being verified with the Ministry of Finance and the Audit Department. In turn, the Treasury, at the suggestion of the Ministry of Finance, verifies the results of this audit.
In addition, the bank is currently conducting a technological audit of the USC Group, which is scheduled to be completed in June 2024. After that, an objective assessment of the shipyards' production capacities will be given. Based on the results of the technological audit, VTB will develop and approve corporate development documents and the USC investment program. At the same time, we are already seeing positive dynamics on a number of issues.
Significant progress has been made in resolving disagreements with the main customer, the Ministry of Defense, and the necessary solutions have been prepared or are being prepared for most problematic orders. We expect that in the next couple of months we will finally find a solution to the financing of the current order portfolio. In civil orders, work on problematic orders has noticeably accelerated, VTB has attracted the missing funding and provides assistance in working with large customers and suppliers.
- Do you think this time will be enough to solve the tasks of financial rehabilitation of USC and turning it into a sustainable and profitable business? To what extent will these tasks be combined with the increased requirements from the state defense order?
- We expect that VTB and USC will carry out consistent work for 5 years aimed at a systemic reboot of the corporation - its recovery, building a new model of its management, where the role of the parent company in contract management will be fundamentally strengthened.
As for the increased demands from the state defense order, they do not fundamentally change the approaches agreed with the government to the development of the corporation. Rather, these are issues of flexible management of production resources - their redistribution, focus and mobilization on priority orders.
