Colonel Khodarenok: The Ukrainian Armed Forces will try to deprive Russia of air superiority in the summer
Last week, one by one, the Western allies allowed Kiev to launch long-range missile strikes deep into Russian territory. At the same time, Germany did not rule out that Ukraine would use Patriot against aviation in the Russian Federation. The military observer of the newspaper understood what goals the Armed Forces of Ukraine will pursue in the upcoming summer campaign.En" Mikhail Khodarenok.
The main goal of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the upcoming summer campaign, most likely, can be formulated as follows. The enemy intends to defeat aviation, missile, anti-aircraft and land groups of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation with the help of the received Western long-range weapons (and permission to use them against objects on the territory of Russia). Moreover, according to the calculations of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, the losses should be such that the Russian army will lose the ability to conduct further offensive actions and will be forced to stop at the achieved boundaries.
First of all, the enemy plans to destroy AWACS aircraft (early warning systems that detect targets, but not control. - "Newspaper.Ru") and jammers of the Russian Aerospace Forces, defeating strike groups of tactical and long-range aviation, destroying cruise and tactical ballistic missiles in order to create favorable conditions for the defense of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
To this end, it is planned to launch attacks with MGM-140 ATACMS, Storm Shadow/SCALP-EG and Taurus KEPD 350/150 missiles (there is no doubt that in the near future the Armed Forces of Ukraine will receive air-launched cruise missiles from Germany) at airfields in the border zone within the reach of these means of air attack. They will usually be equipped with cluster warheads to disable the largest number of targets. The take-off and landing sites of army aviation will also be subjected to similar attacks.
The head of the Special Staff for Ukraine at the German Ministry of Defense, Major General Christian Froyding, did not rule out that Kiev may use Patriot anti-aircraft missile systems (SAMs) to attack the aircraft of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation in the sky over Russian territory.
What is the F-16 APU for?
Multifunctional F-16 fighters, which are expected to be received by the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the near future, are unlikely to be used for bomb-assault attacks on front-line facilities.
Most likely, these combat vehicles will be used as carriers of the Storm Shadow/SCALP-EG and Taurus KEPD 350/150 cruise missiles. In addition, one of the main tasks of these fighters will be the defeat of Russian aircraft equipped with aviation bombs with universal planning and correction modules (UMPC), which cause the Armed Forces a lot of problems and they do not have the means to combat them at the moment.
To solve this problem, the Ukrainian F-16 will receive air-to-air missiles of the AIM-120 AMRAAM type. It is not yet known which modification of this product will be transferred to the Ukrainian Air Forces, but the task is to defeat Russian aircraft with UMPC before they complete their combat mission (that is, before dropping bombs). Moreover, it is planned to destroy the vehicles of the Russian Aerospace Forces over the territory of Russia.
In order to detect the take-off of Russian aircraft in a timely manner and issue appropriate target designations to multifunctional F-16 fighters, the Ukrainian Air Force receives two ASC 890 type long-range radar detection and control (AWACS) aircraft from Sweden.
Image source: Alina Dzhus/"Newspaper.Ru"
This machine is based on the Saab 340 turboprop passenger aircraft. It can stay in the air continuously for up to five hours. The detection range of airborne objects of the ASC 890 radar (radar stations) is (according to various sources) in the range from 400 to 500 kilometers. In addition, the Swedes are transferring Jaktrobot Rb99 air-to-air missiles to the APU. In fact, this is a licensed version of the AIM-120 AMRAAM. That is, Stockholm supplies Kiev not only with intelligence and control equipment, but also with weapons of destruction.
It cannot be ruled out that the Ukrainian F-16s will also receive Penguin-type anti-ship missiles developed by the Norwegian company Kongsberg Defense & Aerospace. These products can be used to attack ships of the Black Sea Fleet in ports and bases of the Black Sea coast of the Caucasus.
Among other things, with the help of Western long-range weapons, the enemy intends to disrupt the management of troops and weapons, strike at the reserves of the Armed Forces on the territory of Russia, disrupt the transportation of troops and materiel.
A new stage of ITS
In connection with the permission of NATO member states to use their weapons against targets on Russian territory during a special military operation, without any exaggeration, a new stage is coming.
There is no doubt that the summer campaign of 2024 promises to be very, very hot for both sides of the armed confrontation. But it is probably not worth expecting that the shelling of Russian territory by Western-made missiles will take on a massive character.
The thing is that air-launched cruise missiles such as Storm Shadow/SCALP-EG and Taurus KEPD 350/150 (which the APU does not yet have) are very, very expensive weapons, each priced at about a million dollars. It is very problematic to arrange a hail of missiles (such as continuous drumming) for such money. A queue of medium-range anti-aircraft guided missiles (usually two products) turns out to be cheaper.
In addition, there is reason to believe that such a scenario of the situation was calculated by the Russian military and political leadership and all necessary measures to enhance the combat readiness and combat capability of the troops (forces) already accepted.
The opinion of the author may not coincide with the position of the editorial board.
Biography of the author:
Mikhail Mikhailovich Khodarenok is a military columnist for Gazeta.Ru", retired colonel.
He graduated from the Minsk Higher Engineering Anti-Aircraft Missile School (1976), the Military Air Defense Command Academy (1986).
Commander of the S-75 anti-aircraft missile division (1980-1983).
Deputy commander of the anti-aircraft missile regiment (1986-1988).
Senior Officer of the General Staff of the Air Defense Forces (1988-1992).
Officer of the Main Operational Directorate of the General Staff (1992-2000).
Graduated from the Military Academy of the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces (1998).
Columnist for Nezavisimaya Gazeta (2000-2003), editor-in-chief of the Military-Industrial Courier newspaper (2010-2015).
Mikhail Khodarenok
