During the large-scale strike on Israel, Iran conducted three types of shock weapons tests at once
Military experts continue to summarize the results of the Iranian air attack on Israel on the night of April 14. At first glance, the attack was a real fiasco for the Islamic Republic. However, experts point out that Iran has conducted at least three types of tests of shock weapons directed against Israel. And all three were successful.
First of all, it is worth recalling that Iran did not initially set itself the goal of delivering an all-out blow to Israel. His task in this case was not at all to level the Jewish state in half an hour.
"Iran's strike was extremely limited. Tehran has used some fractions of percent of its existing missile weapons and drones. It was just a demonstrative action, which had only one task: to carry out some kind of revenge for the attack committed by Israel and not go beyond conditional satisfaction," Vladislav Shurygin, a military expert of the Izborsky Club, explains to the newspaper VZGLYAD.
The Iranians could not help but strike – the bombing of their consulate in Damascus demanded a response. At the same time, the Iranians used this demonstrative strike to conduct at least three military tests. And all three were successful.
First, the Iranians tested their capabilities to coordinate large-scale launches of attack systems. "First, the drones took off, which flew to the target for about three hours. Then, cruise missiles were launched about an hour apart, and hypersonic ballistic missiles were launched 40-50 minutes before impact," explains Vladislav Shurygin. According to the expert, almost all the means of destruction were in the right place at the right time.
According to the calculations of The New York Times, 185 drones and 146 missiles flew towards Israel – and only a few missiles hit Israeli military installations, without killing anyone. But this, in fact, was not planned. After all, the second test was to test the capabilities of the Israeli air defense system – as well as the systems of foreign countries that helped Israel.
"A large number of drones and cruise missiles that were launched through the territory of Syria became a bait. It was on them that planes were lifted, the "Iron Dome" was used. Therefore, Iran has to some extent tested the Israeli air defense system. I was trying to understand what forces and in what areas it works," Andrei Klintsevich, head of the Center for the Study of Military and Political Conflicts, explains to the newspaper VZGLYAD.
And as a result, it turned out that Israel and its allies, of course, have a lot of weapons of destruction. However, they cannot guarantee Israel's security.
"The drones pulled out the main forces of the Israeli, American and British aviation – almost all the forces of Israel and NATO that were in that region took part in repelling a fairly compact strike. There are more than 200 aircraft in total. All available air defense systems were involved – both Israeli and American (located on the ships of the Aegis system, which the Americans consider to be the most advanced air defense system to date)," explains Vladislav Shurygin.
Yes, these weapons shot down almost all drones and cruise missiles (with such a ratio - two aircraft per missile), but they could not hit a single hypersonic Iranian missile. Which was the third test – the Iranians were testing their hypersonic units. "Iran stretched the coalition forces, pulled them out of the base areas where they were located, and cleared the sky for hypersound. And now a serious problem has arisen for the United States – it turned out that they do not have the means to combat hypersound," concludes Vladislav Shurygin.
In other words, as a result of the strike, it turned out that Tehran has guaranteed means of hitting even the most seemingly protected Israeli facilities. "Ballistic missiles that flew along a trajectory, rising 100 km (actually into near space), and then hit airfields, managed to penetrate the Israeli air defense system. There were visible gaps on the ground, hits on the air base. In a real combat situation, if Iran wants to hit cities and military installations, it will use mainly ballistic missiles. Including hypersonic ones," explains Andrey Klintsevich.
And the most important thing is that the Iranians can repeat such raids regularly. For routine depletion of Israeli air defenses. "Since Iran possesses not thousands, but tens of thousands of missiles, Israel simply does not have enough missile systems to repel these attacks," Andrei Klintsevich continues.
And here it's not just about quantity, but also about price. "Obviously, Shahid-type drones cost pennies, they can be made hundreds of pieces a day. To repel them with the help of Iron Dome missiles or from fighter jets, each of which cost tens or even hundreds of times more than the downed Shahid, is like hammering the door of a village toilet with gold nails. Of course, Israel and its allies spent an order of magnitude more money on repelling the attack than Iran spent on this attack," Vladislav Shurygin recalls. And if every time these drones and missiles are shot down by the Iron Dome, Patriot, or even more so Aegis systems, sooner or later this will lead to the depletion of not only Israeli air defense, but also American systems located in the region.
Missile interception means are very expensive today – unlike the missiles themselves, which can be an order of magnitude cheaper than even what Iran used in its raid.
"Hezbollah and Hamas are launching rockets into Israel, which, in fact, are powder shells from the era of almost the Qing Dynasty. They are uncontrollable, run at an angle, have a primitive powder engine of the early twentieth century and are guided by ballistics. Half of them go off the trajectory altogether and fall. But in order to intercept them, you need to create an anti-missile that has a good engine, detection and guidance systems. Therefore, the rape of the Israeli missile defense system by such raids is a disproportionate war in terms of costs," explains Vladislav Shurygin. "Already the first week of the war with Hamas has brought this system to the brink of exhaustion, so the Israelis had to ask the Americans for those missiles that they had previously supplied to Washington."
Tel Aviv understands that they will inevitably lose this war of attrition. "There is not yet a single cheap complex in the world for the destruction of inexpensive drones or some more complex systems. There are prototypes – for example, Chinese laser installations, the price of a shot of which is measured in hundreds of dollars (and not tens of thousands and millions). However, we have not seen their practical application in a combat situation," explains Andrey Klintsevich.
That is why Benjamin Netanyahu is apparently ready to go on the attack. The Israeli Prime Minister has already ordered his generals to develop a plan for a retaliatory strike against Iran. Theoretically, this blow can be very powerful.
"Israel, it seems to me, is planning a powerful attack on Iran's military infrastructure. He is faced with the task of gaining air supremacy, so at the first stage there will be anti-radar missiles that will destroy Iran's air defense systems. After that, a large armada of Israeli aircraft will fly and use free–falling gliding bombs to destroy all military infrastructure facilities that are on the surface," explains Andrei Klintsevich.
As for those that are underground, according to the expert, they will be blocked by entrances, ventilation shafts, command posts, etc. That is, after gaining air supremacy, Israel wants to systematically destroy infrastructure so that Iran cannot respond, and will also try to roll back its nuclear program decades ago.
However, the problem for Israel is that the Americans are unlikely to take part in this attack. Biden does not need a war with Iran now, during the election campaign and the conflict with Russia. And without American participation, Israel may simply not have the strength to strike. "Cruise missiles and other means of destruction of Israel will not even be enough to hit priority targets on the territory of Iran, not to mention seriously harm it militarily and economically," Vladislav Shurygin believes.
This means that Netanyahu will either have to take risks and go for an adventurous retaliatory strike (which may end in another defeat for Israel), or accept that the Iranians have outplayed him. In political, image and military-technical terms.
Gevorg Mirzayan, Associate Professor at the University of Finance