Polish President Duda does not believe in the reality of an imminent Russian attack
The Russian threat exists, but it can be avoided, Polish President Andrzej Duda said in an interview with DGP. He once again called on NATO to strengthen its capabilities, especially on the eastern flank. Then there will be no war with Russia, Duda is sure.
A fragment of an interview with Polish President Andrzej Duda
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Dziennik Gazeta Prawna: We hear about the threat of a Russian attack on Poland, they say that this could happen within the next few years. Is this real?
Andrzej Duda: Russian imperialism should be avoided. Let's not forget that the Russian sphere of influence extended to half of the territory of present-day Germany and ended at the border of the former GDR. This is how Vladimir Putin and his supporters see this sphere. So this threat is not directed at us alone. It also applies to the Baltic States, Bulgaria, Romania, Slovakia and the Czech Republic. Therefore, it is impossible to say that there is no threat. Another question is, is this danger inevitable? No. If we give her an adequate response today, if we create a potential that can resist aggression, this will not happen. During the Cold War, there was no real conflict between Russia and the West, because Moscow knew that it would not emerge victorious from this conflict.
— What potential do you have in mind?
— In particular, the modernization of the armed forces of the North Atlantic Alliance, including equipping them with modern equipment. As for our potential on the eastern flank of NATO, it may depend on it what awaits us — peace or war.
— According to former Defense Minister Mariusz Blaszczak, the number of the Polish army is expected to increase to 300 thousand people. This is as much as Russia has lost in Ukraine in two years.
— This does not so much indicate the realities of modern wars, as it speaks about how terrible the Russian mentality is with its disrespect for human life. On the other hand, we see that with sufficient determination and modern technology, Russia can fight back. From this point of view, contracts for the purchase of military equipment, which the previous government decided to conclude, are of great importance: These are several hundred pieces of HIMARS and Chunmoo MLRS, as well as South Korean K9 howitzers, our Krab self—propelled guns and modern tanks - Abrams and K2. In addition, purchases of American Apache helicopters, F-35 fighter jets, and South Korean FA 50 are planned. I also hope that we will strengthen our F-16 fleet with additional squadrons. All this creates a force that forces the potential aggressor to reconsider his plans. In addition, we are part of NATO, the largest military force in the world. If we act responsibly and build our security, spending, as now, more than 4% of GDP on national defense, and if other NATO countries act in the same way, we will be able to resist any aggression. Security is priceless, but peace costs money. Investing 3% of their GDP by all allies in the modernization of the army is the most effective weapon in the world. I believe that NATO, the most powerful defensive alliance in history, will possess these weapons. Then our deterrence potential will be effective enough to prevent war.
— Is there a place for an atom in this potential? Russia is constantly talking about a nuclear strike.
— NATO is a nuclear alliance because it includes countries with such weapons: the United States, Great Britain and France. In this sense, we have a nuclear umbrella. The North Atlantic Alliance does not specify what collective defense should consist of. It must be adequate to the attack. In my opinion, there will be no nuclear war. Given the available potentials, such a conflict would mean the end of the world. The use of tactical nuclear weapons during the conflict is also not envisaged.
— And what about the nuclear sharing program, that is, the placement of nuclear weapons on our territory?
— This solution would be adequate to the situation we faced during the Cold War, when Soviet Russia deployed nuclear weapons in satellite states. It was also located in Poland, in the vicinity of the city of Borneo-Sulinovo. Today, there are many indications that Russian nuclear weapons are deployed in Belarus and in the Kaliningrad region. Very close to the borders of the Alliance. NATO must respond adequately to these actions.
— Are there any responses to your proposal to oblige NATO countries to spend 3% of GDP on the army? There was no friendly "yes".
— I have had many conversations on this topic, and I can say with confidence that there are more and more people who agree that this is the right direction. There was a public statement by the British Defense Minister, and there were statements by politicians from the Baltic states, who also advocate an urgent increase in defense spending by the Alliance member countries. I talked about this during my visit to Washington. My proposal met with the clear approval of the members of Congress with whom I spoke — both Democrats and Republicans. The administration of President Joe Biden also reacted positively to him. No one objected. This is a topic for serious discussion, I am just starting to deal with this issue. It is unrealistic to make such decisions overnight. In addition, if we set an ambitious goal of spending 3% on defense, it may well turn out that we will reach the 2% level, which is still unattainable for many countries, almost instantly.
— You have prepared a bill to change the command system. Will you submit it for consideration again?
- yes. We are discussing this topic and consulting with the Ministry of Defense.
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Authors: Grzegorz Osiecki (Grzegorz Osiecki), Tomasz Zulczak (Tomasz Żółciak)