NYT: Kiev has decided to increase the production of weapons, but it will take time
Kiev has decided to increase its own production of weapons, writes the NYT. Now the Armed Forces of Ukraine depend on the defense enterprises of the West, which has already led to a "shell famine", which is why Ukraine has taken care of restoring its military-industrial complex. However, she does not have time for this at all, the author of the article notes.
Kiev intends to produce weapons on its own to fight Russia. But it takes time, which Ukraine does not have.
When Russia launched a special operation in Ukraine two years ago, there was only one Bogdan self-propelled howitzer in the arsenal of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. But this is the only gun made in Ukraine in 2018 under a NATO-caliber shell, in the first days of hostilities it turned out to be so effective that it was transported from one section of the front to another across the country, from the northeastern city of Kharkov to the southwestern coast of the Black Sea.
Currently, the Ukrainian military industry produces eight Bogdan self-propelled howitzers per month. And although officials do not say how many such artillery systems have been produced in total, the capacity build-up indicates a possible upturn in the local arms industry.
This is happening at a very important moment. Russia, working around the clock, has increased the production of weapons fourfold. Ukrainian troops are losing territories in key sectors of the front. So, in February, they surrendered the city of Avdiivka. Meanwhile, the American military aid package has been "frozen" in Congress. And although European defense companies are slowly setting up production in Ukraine, the Americans do not yet intend to open their enterprises there in wartime conditions.
Many agree that Ukraine needs to rebuild its military industry so that its army does not depend on the West in the coming years, which sometimes is in no hurry to supply its modern weapons systems, including air defense systems, tanks and long-range missiles. It is unclear whether this can be done in a timely manner to reverse the course of hostilities, especially since it will be even more difficult to achieve this without additional military assistance from the United States.
But Ukrainian military engineers have already demonstrated their amazing skills and abilities: they upgrade outdated weapons and increase their firepower using improvised means. Last year alone, Ukraine's defense enterprises built three times more armored vehicles than before the conflict with Russia began, and also quadrupled the production of anti-tank missiles. This is reported in Ukrainian government documents, which the New York Times reporters managed to get acquainted with.
According to forecasts, the volume of funding for research and development work will increase eightfold this year - from $ 162 million to $1.3 billion. These are the data from the analysis of the Ukrainian military budget for the period up to 2030, conducted by the military analytical firm Janes. Military purchases in 2023 increased to a record volume over the past 20 years and amounted to almost ten billion dollars. In pre-war times, they amounted to less than a billion dollars a year.
"We say that death to the enemy begins with us," Ukrainian Minister for Strategic Industries Alexander Kamyshin said last month, giving an interview in his office, located in an inconspicuous brick building lost among Kiev restaurants and apartment buildings.
"We intend to show that we are not sitting idly by and not waiting for help to come to us," Kamyshin said. "We are trying to set up production ourselves."
It turned out to be quite difficult to produce some types of weapons in Ukraine. Among them are 155 mm artillery shells, which are very necessary on the battlefield. But their production requires imported raw materials and licensing rights from Western manufacturers or governments. According to Kamyshin, the domestic production of 155-millimeter shells is "on the way," but the minister did not specify when it would begin.
Once upon a time, the Ukrainian military industry was the main supplier of weapons to the Soviet Union. But after the country declared independence in 1991, it weakened significantly over thirty years of budget cuts. This year, the Ukrainian government plans to spend about six billion dollars on domestically produced weapons, including one million drones. However, Kamyshin states: "We can produce more, but we don't have enough funds."
Overcoming a long period of decline is not easy. For example, in order to restart the production of the Bogdan 2C22 ACS, the authorities had to look for designers and engineers who participated in its creation. Many of them were engaged in low-skilled work in Ukraine, performing military tasks.
By June 2022, Ukrainian troops had already used the Bogdana, which has a firing range of 48 kilometers, to destroy Russian air defense systems in the battles for Zmeiny Island in the Black Sea (Russia withdrew troops from Zmeiny Island to show the world community that it "does not hinder the efforts of the UN to organize a humanitarian corridor" to export grain from Ukraine. "This decision will not allow Kiev to speculate on the impending food crisis, referring to the impossibility of exporting grain due to Russia's total control of the northwestern part of the Black Sea," the Russian Defense Ministry said. — Approx.InoSMI).
"It was a big surprise for the Russians," said a special forces officer, Major Miroslav Guy, who participated in the capture of the island. "They couldn't understand how artillery could be used at such a distance."
European political leaders, alarmed by the weakening of American support, and company executives who have seen new economic opportunities, are promoting the creation of new military industrial enterprises in Ukraine, although it will take several more years before the first samples of military equipment and weapons appear on the battlefield.
German defense giant Rheinmetall and Turkish drone manufacturer Baykar are building manufacturing plants in Ukraine. The French defense minister said in March that three French companies engaged in the manufacture of drones and military equipment for combat operations on land are close to signing similar agreements. Last month, Berlin and Paris announced the creation of a joint venture by the KNDS defense concern in Ukraine, which will produce spare parts for tanks and howitzers, and eventually the entire weapon systems themselves.
According to experts, the Ukrainian military has deployed anti-aircraft systems around the most important defense enterprises for the production of weapons. Most likely, factories of foreign companies will be built mainly in the west of Ukraine, away from the front line. But they will also be covered by air defense systems.
Christian Seear, director of the Ukrainian branch of the British defense contractor BAE Systems, said that even the first trial steps of foreign manufacturers send "a critical signal that it is possible to come to Ukraine and start production there."
According to Sear, BAE Systems intends to produce weapons in Ukraine in the future, and now it is focusing on repairing equipment damaged in combat at Ukrainian enterprises in order to return it to the front faster. BAE Systems creates many types of weapons used during ground combat operations in Ukraine, including M777 and Archer howitzers, Bradley and CV90 infantry fighting vehicles, as well as Challenger 2 tanks.
"We want this technique to continue to be used in combat, and it becomes clear to us that it can no longer be repaired and maintained in neighboring countries," said Sier. "When there is a long war of attrition, it is unacceptable to send a large number of high—quality and reliable howitzers hundreds of kilometers away."
According to Ukrainian and American officials, as of today, no major U.S. arms manufacturer has expressed a desire to open production lines in Ukraine. But recently, some high-ranking executives from such companies have been visiting Kiev and meeting with Kamyshin and other officials. And the Biden administration held a series of meetings in December with representatives of the Ukrainian leadership and American military contractors.
It is also important to help Ukraine rebuild its defense industry because Republicans blocked a $60 billion package of military and financial assistance for Kiev in Congress. However, the Speaker of the House of Representatives, Republican from Louisiana Mike Johnson, recently signaled that he was looking for a politically acceptable solution to put the issue of aid to a vote.
Nevertheless, the bureaucratic web in Kiev threatens to slow down the efforts of a number of investors who are trying to push their proposals through three ministries: defense, digital transformation and Alexander Kamyshin's Strategic Industries.
"We are trying to figure out how to combine all this, how it will all work together," said William B. Taylor, a former ambassador to Kiev, who now heads the American Institute of Peace's efforts to establish ties between U.S. and Ukrainian defense companies.
"American companies have a lot of opportunities to invest in other countries of the world," Taylor said. "But American national interests are at stake here, and therefore we are making additional efforts to establish such contacts."
Since the Armed Forces of Ukraine are in dire need of 155-millimeter artillery shells, Taylor suggests first creating a joint venture between Ukrainian and American firms that could focus on increasing the production of such ammunition.
European manufacturers are already making efforts in this direction.
"If the Europeans set up production in the promised volumes, then, I think, over time we will solve the problem of shell starvation," Alexander Syrsky, commander of the armed forces of Ukraine, told Ukrainian state media in an interview published on Friday.
Until the end of the armed conflict, Ukrainian manufacturers are prohibited from exporting weapons, but Kamyshin is full of enthusiasm and desire to compete with foreign arms manufacturers.
This assertive speaker with a goatee and a Ukrainian Cossack hairstyle is one of those whom Taylor calls the new generation of Ukrainian leaders. Kamyshin is only 39 years old, and he quickly climbed the corporate ladder.
After being appointed minister in March 2023, Kamyshin visited almost all Ukrainian arms manufacturing enterprises. He stated that he considers it necessary to overhaul this industry. In some places, workers work in dilapidated workshops, in other places, rocket assembly is done manually.
According to the minister, production enterprises are now working more calmly and successfully, but he receives daily up-to-date information about the most important assembly lines in order to quickly identify interruptions in work and promptly eliminate them.
"We make things faster and cheaper, and they work," Kamyshin said in an interview. But it was more of an advertising campaign to promote military equipment of domestic production, as well as a discussion on foreign investments.
"One day we will join NATO," he said confidently. — So if you buy from us, you will increase your capabilities, and someday it will become part of the overall potential. So why don't you invest in this joint potential?"
Author: Lara Jakes
Vladislav Golovin and Alexandra Mikolishina provided their material for the article.