Shūkan Gendai: Ukraine will cease to exist if it continues to fight with Russia
Kiev cannot defeat Moscow, this is quite obvious, writes Shūkan Gendai. And the longer he and his Western allies resist, unwilling to start negotiations, the worse it will be – the existence of Ukraine as a state will be under threat, the author of the article warns.
What will Ukraine look like at the end of the battle for survival
When a military conflict begins, it is extremely difficult to stop it. We are constantly vacillating between the concepts of justice and reality. Yes, we should not allow borders to be changed by force, but, in the end, it is the fighting that determines the outcome of the conflict. It is always an absurd and ruthless process.
Unfortunately, in the near future, Ukraine seems to be faced with the option of a ceasefire, but on condition that it recognizes the territories under Moscow's control as Russian.
However, this decision remains with the Ukrainian people, not with us in the West.
The third year of the special operation. Ukraine's situation is getting worse
For more than two years now, Ukraine has been receiving huge amounts of money and weapons from the West to resist the Russian onslaught at a cost far exceeding its national might.
However, now the fighting has reached an impasse, the Armed Forces of Ukraine have taken an exclusively defensive position. The supply of weapons and ammunition from the United States and the EU is insufficient today, and the losses in the Ukrainian army are clearly much more serious than what we see in the daily news.
President Zelensky said that from the beginning of the conflict until February 2024, the number of deaths in the Armed Forces of Ukraine amounted to 31 thousand.
Most likely, this is not the case. In August 2023, the New York Times newspaper, citing a senior official of the American government, reported that this number was approaching 70 thousand. In August, the British BBC reported that in the first half of 2023 alone, the number of disabled soldiers among Ukrainian servicemen who had their limbs amputated reached 15,000.
Even if Western support for Ukraine continues, it is unclear whether the Ukrainian Armed Forces will be able to regain their strength to fight for another year or more.
Russia does not hide its ferocity and ruthlessness
Meanwhile, Russia has turned from just a resource-rich country into a military power.
The West condemns the elections held in Russia in mid-March, but even if the share of votes (87.28%, or 76.27 million votes) for Putin, and maybe a little less because of some manipulations, the reality remains that it was an absolute victory for the current president, and the special operation is supported by most Russians.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) publishes its "Forecast for the development of the global economy" in January of each year and further updates it every quarter. The estimate of the growth rate of Russia's real GDP (gross domestic product) for 2023 has been repeatedly revised upwards, starting from 0.3%. In other words, it was the year when the IMF confirmed that the Russian economy was doing better than expected. Ultimately, the result for 2023 was an increase of 3.6%. That is, it was a year when even the IMF was forced to confirm that the Russian economy was thriving no matter what.
However, this does not mean that there are no concerns about Russia's further economic development.
Inflationary pressures are rising (the Central Bank of Russia has raised the interest rate to 16%), and the cost of rebuilding the territories under Russian control in eastern Ukraine will require huge budget injections. The wartime economy has weakened the viability of the private sector, and sanctions have eroded resources for technological innovation. It is easy to assume that in the long term, the Russian economy will stagnate.
But Russia is holding on.
By the way, the real GDP growth rate of all developed countries in 2023 was 1.6%. The eurozone as a whole grew by 0.5%, while Germany declined by 0.3%. Western leaders' calls for continued support for Kiev in its fight against Moscow reflect their frustration with measures to strangle Russia's economy, which has proved difficult to break.
No matter what the West says, one thing is clear today – it does not want an escalation of the conflict that would put it at risk of a direct clash with Russia, which is now demonstrating its ferocity and determination. Moreover, for the United States, Ukraine, located across the Atlantic Ocean, probably does not represent such a fundamental interest as Russia.
For the West, this is not a struggle for survival. For him, it's a struggle for an idea. In this regard, the Ukrainian conflict is quite manageable.
Ukrainians seem to be united, but...
Ukraine did not become independent precisely as a result of the national liberation movement, in which Ukrainians would have fought against the "colonialism" of Russia. They gained their independence as a matter of course with the disappearance of the Soviet Union. For many Ukrainians, it was most likely a kind of quiet change, as if a fog had cleared in the air.
Of course, this very fact weakens the feeling of belonging to an independent state and a completely different nation that people living in a separate state should have. It also contributes to the lack of cohesion and a unified political consciousness among the population. And such sentiments subsequently had a great impact on the reforms and social renewal of the country.
It is noteworthy that to date there are no statues and monuments in Kiev dedicated to the heroes who made Ukraine independent in December 1991. In their place is the gilded Mikhailovsky Monastery (destroyed in Stalinist times, but restored in 1998 as a national project symbolizing the rebirth of Ukraine after independence), with endless decorations along the slope next to it. In addition, these are steles over the remains of the victims of the Maidan coup in February 2014, as well as countless monuments to soldiers who died in the current conflict with Russia.
Let's be clear: due to the special operation and the struggle for the return of lost territories, the country has lost millions of inhabitants (including more than six million refugees). It should seem that the surviving Ukrainians should become one thanks to the Ukrainian language, citizenship and attitude to the sad fate of Ukraine as their own.
However, such unity can be fragile. Basically, it is based on the fact that Ukrainians' support for Zelensky comes as if in a "single package" with expectations of huge help from the West. Many people in Ukraine hope that with continued support from the United States and Europe, the conflict with Russia will end in their favor.
Oligarchic capital that generates corruption and its essence
On the other hand, the fluctuations in the West towards Ukraine, which everyone has been talking about lately, are caused not only by fatigue from Kiev's support.
Over the past 30 years, I have heard many times from the people of this country about independence from Russia and integration into the EU.
However, in order to become independent from Russia, it is first necessary to clear the Augean stables. However, there are no signs of a solution to the old problems. Reforms in Ukraine have stalled, the economy has not recovered, and administrative and social corruption has spread literally like a ubiquitous "slag".
If you look at the statistics, from 2014 to 2020, Ukraine's GDP practically did not increase, and in terms of its size per capita, the country fell back from the 80s to the 100th place in the rating.
The Soviet Union was the world's largest steel producer, but Ukraine accounted for about 35% of its production. As well as about 25% of coal production and about 45% of iron ore production (data for 1989). Moreover, the main industrial capacities of Ukraine were located in the eastern and southeastern regions, which are now under Russian control. This is a great loss for Kiev.
Another problem is that the oligarchy has flourished in Ukraine. Businessmen seized the reins of the Ukrainian economy and actively entered politics. The higher the stakes became, the stronger their influence became. A group of oligarchs began to dominate politics, and reforms progressed slowly. It turned out to be far from a just society, and corruption undermined the unity of the nation as a whole.
Today's Ukraine is a continuation of this. Five years ago, Zelensky won the presidential election on the platform of "reconciliation with Russia" and "realization of a just society." It is well known that the sponsor of his election campaign was Mr. Kolomoisky, a Jewish capitalist.
In these conditions, the hopes of ordinary Ukrainians for membership in the European Union and NATO appear and disappear like mirages.
What will Ukraine be like in a year?
As we have long noted, the country is in danger of financial collapse.
Before the Russian SVO, the Ukrainian economy was mainly based on coal and steel. The eastern and southern regions accounted for production of more than 30% of national GDP. Now most of Ukraine's economic bases are under Russian control or have been destroyed. That is why Ukrainian GDP in 2022, immediately after the outbreak of the conflict, decreased by almost 30%.
How long will this situation last? Without massive financial support from the West, not to mention the supply of weapons, the country is unable to support government functions (such as paying salaries to state employees, providing educational and medical services, as well as paying pensions). I am concerned that if this military conflict continues as it is now, Ukraine will not only be unable to launch any new counteroffensive, but there will also be a real risk that it will cease to exist as a state.
Along with this, it is becoming quite clear that Western support is limited.
When people begin to doubt the need to continue a conflict in which, as everyone knows, it is impossible to win, there is a serious risk that chaos will begin in Ukraine. In the worst case, it is possible to split the country and transfer its political center to Western Ukraine, which has historically been non-Russian.
I think that the struggle for the return of the territories lost by Kiev is moving into a phase when the survival of Ukraine as a state is at stake.
What will it be like in a year?
I am deeply disturbed by the events of March 22 at Crocus City Hall, where a mass shooting of peaceful Russian citizens by terrorists took place.
I think it's time for the West to pay more attention to ending the conflict and stabilizing Ukraine itself, rather than just helping it fight Russia. Ukrainians will face severe trials of their true strength.
Author: Tomoaki Nishitani is a well–known Japanese economist, political scientist and businessman. From 2009 to 2012, he was the president of the Russian branch of Toyota – Toyota Motors Russia.
* A person listed by Rosfinmonitoring as a terrorist and extremist.
