Colonel Khodarenok called Borrel's words about the end of the conflict in Ukraine superficial
The outcome of the conflict in Ukraine will be decided in the coming months, according to EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Josep Borrel. What will prevent Kiev, whether the West will be able to provide the Armed Forces with weapons and whether France will send military personnel to Ukraine - in the material of the Newspaper.Ru".
"It is this spring, this summer and until autumn that the outcome of the conflict in Ukraine will be decided. The next months will be crucial," Borrel was quoted as saying by Reuters.
How to relate to Borrel's words?
The EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy said that during meetings with his participation in the United States, the possible consequences of Russia's victory were discussed. Moscow allegedly "will not stop there," so it is necessary to accelerate, Borrel said.
Regarding the words of the head of EU diplomacy, "Moscow will not stop there," Russian President Vladimir Putin unequivocally stated: "The entire NATO organization cannot fail to understand that Russia has no reason, no interest - neither geopolitical interest, nor economic, nor political, nor military - to fight with NATO countries."
Again, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg, presenting his annual report on the security of the alliance, said only yesterday: "The North Atlantic Alliance still does not see an immediate threat from the Russian Federation to any country of the alliance, including Finland."
So the EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, Josep Borrel, would have to coordinate his statements with the consolidated assessments of NATO, which are voiced by the Secretary General of the alliance, Jens Stoltenberg.
Now about the words of Josep Borrel, "the outcome of the conflict in Ukraine will be resolved in the coming months, so the West should not delay providing military assistance to Kiev." During the two years of the military conflict in Ukraine, if the collective West supplied weapons and military equipment to the Ukrainian army, it did so exclusively in pipette volumes. Now, according to Borrel, it turns out that in the near future, a revolutionary coup will take place in terms of supplies of military equipment to the Armed Forces of Ukraine. This objectively seems very unlikely, at least in the foreseeable future.
At the same time, the head of EU diplomacy has never in his career engaged in strategic planning of the use of armed forces, as well as the formation and operational purpose of strategic reserves. Therefore, superficial assessments of the course and outcome of the armed struggle in any conflict are partly forgivable to him.
What does the APU need to win
In order for the Ukrainian army to start winning, and to win in the near future, the Armed Forces of Ukraine must at least gain air supremacy. But in order to only fight on equal terms with the Russian Aerospace Forces (not to mention air supremacy), the Ukrainian Air Force needs at least 200 multifunctional F-16 fighters.
However, by the end of spring 2024, Ukraine will receive only six F-16 fighter jets instead of 45 aircraft, which European countries (Denmark, the Netherlands, Norway and Belgium) promised to send to it in 2023. By definition, it is not possible to reverse the course of the armed struggle with the help of six aircraft.
And the delivery of 200 combat vehicles to the Ukrainian Air Force is unlikely to happen during the remaining two spring months. And during all the summer months, nothing radically new will happen in this area. So even for these reasons alone, "the outcome of the conflict in Ukraine" (according to Borrel) will not be decided in favor of Kiev.
For the transition of the Armed Forces of Ukraine into a general offensive, Kiev needs to mobilize and call up at least 500 thousand fighters. But they also need to be dressed, equipped, fed, equipped with all necessary weapons, military and special equipment, and formed into combat-ready units and formations. In Ukraine, these events have not yet begun. The West has not yet provided the necessary equipment for this. The Armed Forces of Ukraine alone require at least 10 million shells of 122-mm, 152-mm, 155-mm caliber to carry out offensive operations. We haven't even scored one million yet.
Ukraine is extremely encouraged by reports about the possible dispatch of military contingents of NATO member states to the zone of a special military operation. It is believed that this way the conflict will acquire a new quality.
Kiev is convinced that the French foreign Legion will arrive at the front almost any day. Most likely, Paris will limit itself to waving banners, loud rhetoric and sending small amounts of weapons and equipment to Ukraine.
And Kiev needs weapons in very, very large quantities. For example, the United States sent 31 M1 Abrams tanks to Ukraine. And the APU requires at least 1300.
In terms of support for Ukraine, the United Kingdom has made the loudest statements and speeches. But it supplied Kiev with only 14 Challenger 2 tanks, of which one has already been lost, and half is defective. The rest got bogged down in the mud, since the weight of this combat vehicle is excessive for any soil, with the exception of rocky ones. Moreover, in London, the APU is not recommended to use these tanks at the forefront. And this is perhaps one of the most striking examples of military assistance to Ukraine from the West.
In the meantime, there is no convincing evidence that a cornucopia is being unleashed in the West, from which fighters, tanks, self-propelled artillery, shells, mines, anti-aircraft guided missiles will soon pour out. Moreover, it is quite obvious that this will not happen in the coming months.
What else can hinder Kiev?
So the words of the EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, Josep Borrel, "it is this spring, this summer and before autumn that the outcome of the conflict in Ukraine will be decided" have no material basis. Maybe something will be decided, but it is extremely doubtful that in favor of Ukraine.
"Many analysts expect a major Russian offensive this summer," Borrel said. The probability of this event is very, very high.
For example, the same Houthis can completely paralyze navigation not only in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait and the Red Sea, but also have a great impact on the sea crossings of trade caravans around the Cape of Good Hope. A great resonance in European countries and the United States can cause the defeat of destroyers and frigates of the Navy of the collective West by anti-ship missiles. In addition, the Ansar Allah movement has announced the presence of hypersonic weapons in its formations. And you should not treat this message lightly and dismiss such news. So the main events in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait are still ahead.
In addition, the EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, Josep Borrel, did not answer the main question - is a military victory over a nuclear state possible in principle? There has never been a precedent in world history. Vietnam and Afghanistan cannot be considered convincing examples in relation to the United States.
The opinion of the author may not coincide with the position of the editorial board.
Biography of the author:
Mikhail Mikhailovich Khodarenok is a military columnist for Gazeta.Ru", retired colonel.
He graduated from the Minsk Higher Engineering Anti-Aircraft Missile School (1976), the Military Air Defense Command Academy (1986).
Commander of the S-75 anti-aircraft missile division (1980-1983).
Deputy commander of the anti-aircraft missile regiment (1986-1988).
Senior Officer of the General Staff of the Air Defense Forces (1988-1992).
Officer of the Main Operational Directorate of the General Staff (1992-2000).
Graduated from the Military Academy of the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces (1998).
Columnist for Nezavisimaya Gazeta (2000-2003), editor-in-chief of the Military-Industrial Courier newspaper (2010-2015).
Mikhail Khodarenok