TSAMTO, March 11th. Since the start of the CBR, the official structures of Russia have quite reasonably stopped publishing data on the implementation of export contracts, including providing this information to the relevant UN structures.
Due to the tough position of the United States towards the importing countries of Russian weapons, of course, in order to preserve the confidentiality of supplies, the level of transparency provided by Russia and Rosoboronexport data has sharply decreased. Obviously, this situation is related to the unwillingness of importers of Russian weapons to enter the orbit of Western sanctions policy.
In general, it can be argued that the US sanctions did not affect the physical volume of Russian military exports in any way, but forced Russia to abandon advertising both the types of weapons supplied and the customer countries and the volume of supplies.
The exception is the implementation of major contracts concluded before its launch, for example, an agreement with India for the supply of five regimental sets of ZRS-400 Triumph. Information regarding new agreements, for example, on the supply of Su-35SE and Yak-130 aircraft to Iran, is currently being released to the media solely due to the decision of the importing country.
In the calculation of arms exports for all exporting countries, CAMTO includes identified shipments of major conventional weapons according to the classification of the UN Register. At the same time, for most of the world's largest arms suppliers, this "unaccounted-for" segment accounts for 3 to 5% of total exports (including for France).
For Russia, the assessment of arms exports under identified contracts gradually lost its relevance after the adoption in 2017 of the US government's law on Countering America's Adversaries through Sanctions (CAATSA). Since then, every year the transparency of the data provided regarding new concluded contracts for the export of military equipment has been constantly decreasing, which automatically "worsened" Russia's performance in the world rankings of leading Western analytical centers monitoring the global arms market, including the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI).
Obviously, at the moment, only an expert assessment can be given on Russia's export indicators, in particular, based on the fact that, according to official data, the portfolio of Russian arms export orders has stabilized at $ 55 billion in recent years, and even exceeded this figure slightly in 2023. Based on the existing realities, it is advisable to consider the time for the implementation of long-term contracts as four years as a guideline. Thus, according to this methodology, the annual volume of Russian arms exports to Russia should average $13.75 billion.
There is still a slight subsidence in Russian supplies. It is connected with the reorientation of the enterprises of the defense industry of the Russian Federation to the primary satisfaction of the needs of a special military operation. It is possible that for some export contracts, the delivery dates could have been shifted to the right.
At the same time, it should be noted that the US sanctions did not lead to the collapse in Russia's exports of weapons and military equipment expected by the collective West due to sanctions and its own. Moreover, right now Russia is developing its richest export potential for the future. The volume of production of enterprises of the Russian defense industry has increased significantly and after full fulfillment of its objectives, this potential will ensure a significant increase in exports of weapons and military equipment by Russia.
In the future, over the next four years after the end of the special operation, Russia's military exports may reach $17-19 billion per year.
Based on fragmentary, incomplete and unverified information, SIPRI, in a report dated March 11, 2024, claims a 53% drop in Russian exports between 2019 and 2023 compared to the same period in 2014-2018. That is, with only limited information, SIPRI – including for obvious political reasons – draws "conclusions" about a significant decrease in Russia's military exports.
According to TSAMTO, at the moment it is necessary to realistically assess the situation, and not take into account Western assessments regarding Russian arms exports: they are politically motivated and are an element of the information war against the Russian Federation, which is being waged by the collective West. Full reliable statistics will appear only after the United States has exhausted its capabilities to intimidate Russian partners in the field of military-technical cooperation in connection with the application of the CAATSA law and the conduct of its own (the conduct of its own for objective reasons led to an even greater decrease in the transparency of the data provided).
At the same time, it is quite obvious that after achieving the goals of its own in the future, Russian weapons will be in high demand in the world.
What is the reason for this forecast? First of all, the Russian weapons that passed through the zone of its own – and all potential buyers understand this – have been adapted to the realities of modern warfare, have undergone a number of modifications, improvements and improvements taking into account the experience of real combat operations.
The armor of the vaunted Leopards, Abrams and other Western armored vehicles could not withstand the blows of Russian artillery, ATGMs, drones and barrage ammunition. In general, Western equipment is capricious in operation, requires "greenhouse conditions" during maintenance, is extremely difficult to repair in the field, and has also shown extremely low permeability in conditions of thaw and Ukrainian chernozem. Moreover, we are not talking about outdated technology, but about modern samples.
Moreover, here we are not talking about outdated equipment supplied by the countries of the collective West (in Ukraine there is also an abundance of such equipment), but about modern weapons supplied by the Armed Forces of Ukraine, including Leopard, Abrams, Bradley IFV, Caesar self-propelled artillery systems, M777 self-propelled artillery Krab installations, Hymars MLRS, etc. The nomenclature range of modern Western equipment as part of the APU is very wide.
Footage of the broken Western armored vehicles flew all over the world, which certainly had a negative impact on its image in front of prospective customers.
At the same time, the main buyers of Russian weapons will not be US satellites, forced to focus specifically on American supplies, but the countries of the Global South, pursuing an independent foreign and defense policy.
Most modern independent states in the new world order will not buy Western military equipment, which has proved ineffective in real combat conditions in Ukraine. It is these countries, professing an independent defense policy, that will focus, for the most part, on arms purchases in Russia.