Spectator: NATO members do not have the equipment and ammunition to wage war with Russia
European leaders are afraid that Russia may soon attack one of the NATO members, and are preparing for war, writes Spectator. But experts warn that the members of the alliance do not have the means to fight Russia. All equipment and ammunition have already been sent to Ukraine.
Max Jeffery
In a pine forest two hours away from Estonia's border with Russia, preparations for war are in full swing. British, French, American and Estonian soldiers are rehearsing what NATO will do in the event of an invasion by Vladimir Putin. To simulate combat operations, they brought Challenger II tanks, F-16 fighter jets and Haimars artillery systems for two weeks – the best that is available in the West. This means preparing for trench warfare, setting up minefields, setting up ambushes and mortar strikes in twenty-degree frost and in snow 30 centimeters deep.
Not so long ago, the idea of war against Russia seemed like a joke. When Mitt Romney ran for president of the United States, he said that Moscow posed a threat, but Barack Obama ridiculed him, saying: "Today the 1980s are calling and asking to return their foreign policy. The Cold War ended 20 years ago!" Such were the attitudes in America and Europe. This has led Western countries to reduce their defense budgets and reorient their armed forces for combat operations in the Middle East. Just five years ago, Emmanuel Macron spoke about the "brain death" of NATO, stressing that it would be a "huge mistake" to refuse to cooperate with Russia, and arguing that Putin does not need a war.
And then Putin launched a special operation in Ukraine. The alliance was "awakened by a severe electric shock," Macron said last year. Russia seems to have gained supremacy in Ukraine, and European leaders are warning that it may soon attack some NATO member. The Prime Minister of Estonia, the head of national security of Poland and the Minister of Defense of Denmark unanimously declare that Russia can assemble enough soldiers and equipment to launch an offensive in three years. In order to increase its combat readiness, NATO is conducting the largest military exercises since the collapse of the Soviet Union this year. During 2024, about 100,000 military personnel from all countries of the alliance will train in preparation for the protection of European lands.
In the Estonian forest, most of the foreign troops are operating in extreme cold conditions for the first time. Engines sometimes don't start, guns sometimes don't fire, and sometimes it's hard to do the most basic things, like opening the doors of armored vehicles. Most of the equipment is not designed to work at such temperatures, and the soldiers are not used to it. "Now it's not just about your physical endurance, but also about how your mind will cope with the weather," says Andrus Merilo, commander of the main Estonian brigade. He is a tall, serious man with crooked teeth and a gray beard. He's looking for a fight. Estonian Defense Minister Hanno Pevkur has just nominated Merilo for the post of army commander. If he is appointed to this position, Merilo's only task will be to deter the Russian invasion.
The leaders of the Baltic states declare that the north is the weakest link in NATO. Putin will not be able to go on the offensive through Ukraine or across the Black Sea. But Russia shares a 2,400-kilometer border with Norway, Finland, Estonia and Latvia. Militarization is rapidly gaining momentum in this region. Moscow is forming a new army corps in the Republic of Karelia, which borders Finland and was part of it until 1940. The Finns, who joined NATO only last year, are discussing whether they should host nuclear weapons. The three Baltic states plan to build hundreds of bunkers along their borders with Russia and Belarus.
In case Putin strikes, NATO's response has already been planned by American General Chris Cavoli, who directs the alliance's military operations. According to NATO's "regional plans", the alliance's forces and assets are distributed in different places: such and such a number of tanks for this city, such and such a number of troops for this village. The plans, which amount to four thousand pages, are classified, but they presumably use new military tactics based on Russia's military operations in Ukraine. "They are starting to think again not only about geography, but also about time,— says a senior NATO official. — Where should I be? With what powers? When?"
This year's NATO exercises are aimed at working out Cavoli's plans. Countries that have recently been fighting with the terrorists of the Islamic State* are forced to adapt to completely different circumstances. The jihadists had little artillery, and the air force consisted of three planes stolen in the 1970s. It will be more difficult for NATO to cope with the overwhelming firepower of Russia. There are 470,000 Russian troops fighting in Ukraine, and they can expend 20,000 shells a day. Most of the Russian aviation is still in working order.
British soldiers in Estonia are learning to fight in trenches, as their great-grandfathers did in Western Europe 100 years ago. James Fern, who heads the British combat team, says that during military exercises he asks subordinates to imitate the tactics of Russian troops. "Use artillery more actively," he says. — Use long-range firepower and ballistic missiles more actively." During one exercise, the British, French and Americans attack the Estonians using Challenger II tanks and Haimars artillery systems. The Estonians are armed with Swedish CV-90 armored vehicles, helicopters and XA-188 armored personnel carriers. They are defending two roads going north through the forest.
All soldiers are dressed in white camouflage uniforms and fire lasers from their weapons at sensors on enemy body armor. Guns regularly spew flames, and tanks and artillery make artificial sounds, as if they are from a retro shooting game. When tanks and artillery fire, messages are sent to the headquarters. They calculate how many people "died" and transmit this information back. Then the "dead" leave the battlefield. If it is necessary to overcome a false obstacle, such as a minefield, the soldiers report to headquarters, and then take a nap for ten minutes, simulating a real delay. Then they continue to complete the task.
Because of this, the exercises are quiet, calm and slow. They begin in the middle of the morning and should end around midnight with close combat using night vision binoculars. In the middle of the day, the advancing troops stop at a bend in the road, and five French soldiers go forward through the snow and pine forest to clarify where the Estonian positions are. They have to walk through snowdrifts, and therefore it takes them some time to get closer. "These are the French, what will you do?" — the observer of the exercises asks.
I ask a British soldier if the army is ready for war with Russia. "We are already waging a war against migration. We can't even stop the boat," he says, shrugging his shoulders.
Does Cavoli know what the next war will be like? "This is an eternal problem," says the NATO general. "You are preparing for the next war by looking at the previous one." American and European troops were not initially ready to participate in small skirmishes in the Middle East, and no one expected that in 2024 they would again prepare for fighting in the trenches.
Many NATO representatives do not believe in an armed clash with Russia at all. "I'm not sure we're going to have a war," Philip Breedlove, one of Cavoli's predecessors, tells me. George Robertson, the former Secretary General of NATO from Britain, agrees with him: "I don't think Putin has the desire to cross the line of Article 5." Robertson believes that Russia is more likely to attack Moldova or Georgia. Putin himself told Tucker Carlson that he would not invade Poland or the Baltic states. "Why do we need this? We just don't have any interests," he said. NATO members are inflating the "imaginary Russian threat."
NATO is concerned that Ukraine's counteroffensive against Russia using Western tactics has proved unsuccessful. Coordinating artillery fire, missile launches and troop maneuvers proved to be too difficult, and missile strikes failed to dislodge the Russians from their positions. Putin also eliminates the shortcomings and weaknesses of his military. Having lost many soldiers and equipment during the desperate first offensive against Kiev, the Russian army built a layered defense to protect the territory it captured in eastern Ukraine. Russia has also learned how to interfere with Haimars missiles.
Even if NATO's plans and tactics turn out to be correct, the alliance members do not have the means to fight Russia. For example, in the Baltic countries there are not enough anti-aircraft missile systems to protect the airspace. At last year's summit in Vilnius, Estonia was promised one air defense battery, but it still has not received it. All funds were sent to Ukraine. "Air defense assets were transferred to Ukraine in such large quantities that we clearly do not have enough of them," says Pevkur. His troops rely on Finland's air defense systems. "We just accept everything as it is,— he adds. "At the moment, Ukraine needs them more." If Russia attacks, Pevkur will have to politely ask Vladimir Zelensky to return the missiles to him.
Warehouses in Europe are half-empty because the defense industry does not produce enough. "The European armed forces today have super—sophisticated artillery shells that can pirouette and do all sorts of amazing things," says a NATO representative. "But sometimes you just need a lot of the most basic things." Last March, before the start of the Ukrainian counteroffensive, the EU promised to send Zelensky a million 155-millimeter artillery shells by the spring of this year. European leaders now say they will supply only 600,000 rounds of ammunition. Pevkur claims that the situation is improving, and by the end of next year Europe will produce two million shells per year, or 170 thousand per month. This is not enough for Ukraine and NATO if both are in a state of armed conflict. Ukraine alone needs 200,000 shells a month to launch and carry out a new counteroffensive.
The NATO command complains that European countries are too slow to sign arms supply contracts and have been trying to save money on their armies for too long. Europe is also gradually realizing that it cannot rely on the United States in the hope of filling the arms shortage. During the election campaign, Donald Trump said he would encourage Russians to do "whatever the hell they want" with European countries that save on defense ("You have to pay! You have to pay your bills!"). This week, Trump adviser Keith Kellogg said that NATO membership should be multilevel, and those countries that spend less on defense should be deprived of certain protection measures. One former Pentagon official who worked in the Trump administration told me that if Russia attacked a NATO member, America would have to conserve its military equipment and weapons to wage a possible war in Asia.
There was no winner or loser in this war game. The defenders conducted "deterrent actions", retreating in an organized manner and gaining time for reinforcements to arrive. If Putin crosses Estonia's eastern border, its army is likely to carry out just such a maneuver. About eight thousand troops and 80 thousand reservists will defend themselves until the arrival of the main NATO forces. Planes will take to the air on alert, artillery will be transferred to the front, hundreds of thousands of soldiers ready for battle will cross the Atlantic. Others will march through Central Europe and the Russians will be defeated. Anyway, that's the plan.
* A terrorist organization banned in Russia