Colonel Khodarenok: there is no convincing evidence of the use of Zircon in Kiev
After the strike on the Dnipro district of Kiev, fragments of the Russian 3M22 Zircon hypersonic missile were allegedly found. There is no official confirmation of this information from any of the parties to the conflict. The military observer of Gazeta investigated how plausible the statements of the Ukrainian media about the first use of Zircon are.En" Mikhail Khodarenok.
What is known about Zircon in Ukraine
CNN drew attention to reports about the possible first combat use by the Russian military of the 3M22 Zircon anti-ship hypersonic missile.
At the same time, the Ukrainian Defense Export portal clarified that the hypersonic missile was hit by Kiev's air defense systems, and presented photos of the funnel and fragments of weapons as evidence. However, the press service of the AFU Air Forces does not say a word about the very fact of the shelling and destruction of the 3M22 missile. If this had actually happened, it is unlikely that the Ukrainian side would have refrained from the usual boastful statements in such cases.
As for the fragments of the rocket (if it is a rocket at all, since it is difficult to judge this from the presented parts of the product), they are small, there are various kinds of designations on parts of the fragments, and not applied in the factory way, but scratched with some sharp object, perhaps even a nail.
It seems that the Ukrainian side attracted specialists from the nearest rural forge to create evidence of the use of Zircon.
Arguments "against"
Since the author of this material, by his first education, was a rocket engineer and in his long practice had the opportunity to familiarize himself with the device of many missiles, in this case he can confidently say that the manufacturer of such equipment never does so. All possible marking of both the rocket as a whole and its individual blocks is carried out exclusively in an industrial way (in accordance with established and approved samples). That is, the evidence presented by the Ukrainian side about the combat use of 3M22 Zircon hypersonic missiles looks frankly unconvincing.
Usually, the use of new types of weapons and military equipment by the warring parties is carried out as follows - only suddenly, only massively and only with the achievement of any convincing results, and at least on an operational and tactical scale. There is no doubt that all these basic rules are known to the Russian leadership.
But to make single launches of promising products, especially at objects on the territory of Ukraine, the defeat of which will not cause the widest and most significant resonance, to a certain extent can lead to discrediting of new weapons, which cannot be allowed under any circumstances.
What would a Zircon be useful for?
Let's consider several cases when the hypothetical use of hypersonic cruise missiles (GZKR) would seem appropriate during the course of its operation.
- For example, the first squadron of multifunctional F-16 fighters has been relocated to one of the airfields of Western Ukraine (Stryi, Ozernoye, Starokonstantinov, etc.). There is no doubt that in this case, the airfield where the combat vehicles will be based will be carefully covered with all the air defense equipment at the disposal of the Ukrainian command.
That is, when planning and carrying out an attack on this object, it will be necessary to overcome the air defense system with minimal losses, and inflict the maximum possible defeat on the main object - F-16 fighters (as well as runways, main taxiways, parking lots, airfield equipment).
In this case, for the successful completion of the task, it is quite possible to launch several dozen GZKR type 3M22. But even in this scenario, it is necessary to add air-launched cruise missiles such as X-101/555/55, and sea-based Kalibr-PL/NK, as well as a variety of unmanned aerial vehicles to the Zircons. In this case, the strike will achieve its goals.
- Hypothetically, it is possible to strike a 3M22 type GZKR at the facilities of the highest levels of military and public administration in Kiev. But even in this case, the number of launched missiles will go to many dozens. Otherwise, it is unlikely to achieve the desired effect and the widest resonance.
- And the third case of possible combat use of the 3M22 type GZKR is a strike on the most important infrastructure facilities on the territory of Ukraine. But again, such an attack should be massive, and not represent the launch of single missiles.
With all these considerations, the launch of the alleged "Zircon" in early February in Kiev does not fit exclusively, and the object of the attack was either a power line, or a transformer substation, or a residential quarter.
In this case, the criterion of "efficiency-cost" is simply in blatant contradiction with objective reality. The 3M22 rocket, we recall, is a very expensive product, and guns are usually not fired at sparrows.
Image source: Russian Ministry of Defense / YouTube
It should be added to this that the 3M22 Zircon is a Russian hypersonic anti-ship missile developed by NPO Mashinostroeniya (we especially note that this is an anti-ship product). It is part of the 3K22 Zircon complex. To launch the product, the UKSK (universal ship firing complex 3C14) is required, that is, a shipboard vertical launcher manufactured by the Morinformsystem-Agat concern.
The Zircon carriers - frigates of Project 22350 and multipurpose nuclear submarines of project 885M - are part of the Northern Fleet. There is information that the United Group of Troops (forces) participating in the SVO has a shore-based UCSC, and the GZCR itself has been modified for firing at ground targets, has not yet been publicly available.
The opinion of the author may not coincide with the position of the editorial board.
Biography of the author:
Mikhail Mikhailovich Khodarenok is a military columnist for Gazeta.Ru", retired colonel.
He graduated from the Minsk Higher Engineering Anti-Aircraft Missile School (1976), the Military Air Defense Command Academy (1986).
Commander of the S-75 anti-aircraft missile division (1980-1983).
Deputy commander of the anti-aircraft missile regiment (1986-1988).
Senior Officer of the General Staff of the Air Defense Forces (1988-1992).
Officer of the Main Operational Directorate of the General Staff (1992-2000).
Graduated from the Military Academy of the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces (1998).
Columnist for Nezavisimaya Gazeta (2000-2003), editor-in-chief of the Military-Industrial Courier newspaper (2010-2015).
Mikhail Khodarenok
