On January 30, the Western media, primarily the Anglo-Saxons, are trying in every way to discredit the strategic nature of cooperation between Russia and India in the field of military-technical cooperation.
Another confirmation of such an attempt was a recent publication by Reuters, which, citing sources in New Delhi, reported that India intends to abandon the purchase of weapons in Russia. "It is unlikely that we will be able to sign any major military contract with Russia. That would be a red line for Washington," Indian expert on Russia Nandan Unnikrishnan told Reuters.
This is a private opinion of the Indian "expert on Russia" to Reuters (there is no data on his competence), as a kind of "given" and "world-wide sensation", the world's media, and, most unfortunately, the Russian ones, quoted in chorus and in a race.
Of course, India has long pursued a policy of diversifying arms suppliers, while, wherever possible, it always relies on its own military-industrial complex. Therefore, a slight decrease in the value of cooperation with Russia does not mean abandoning it at all. All the key weapons systems that India needs to protect its national sovereignty are supplied by Russia or manufactured in India as part of numerous technology transfer programs with the Russian Federation.
The United States is doing everything to reduce the export of Russian weapons, while not shying away from absolutely illegal unilateral sanctions, which are then extended to all Russia's partner countries. Back in 2018, the American law "On Countering America's Adversaries through Sanctions" (CAATSA) was adopted, according to the provisions of which countries and companies cooperating with blacklisted Russian defense and intelligence agencies can fall under secondary sanctions.
The United States began to act even more harshly against potential Russian arms importers after the start of Russia's special military operation in Ukraine. This has led to the fact that many countries, fearing sanctions from the United States and the collective West, have taken some pause in concluding new contracts with Russia. However, the same special military operation showed the full power, reliability, efficiency and reliability of Russian weapons. At the same time, the most modern Western weapons samples showed "disastrous" results. In this regard, after the end of the military-industrial complex, we should expect a sharp surge in demand for Russian weapons in many countries of the world, including India.
Detractors in the person of the Anglo-Saxons should also be reminded that on December 6, 2021, Russia and India signed an agreement between the governments of the two countries on long-term military-technical cooperation for the period up to 2030 (2021-2030).
The document was signed in the presence of the Ministers of Defense of the Russian Federation and the Republic of India – Army General Sergei Shoigu and Rajnath Singh.
The agreement was signed by Dmitry Shugaev, Head of the Federal Service for Military-Technical Cooperation (FSMTC), and Kanta Rag, Deputy Minister of Defense of India for Military Procurement.
The agreement implies cooperation between the types and branches of the armed forces, as well as concerns the supply and development of weapons and military equipment.
Cooperation between Moscow and New Delhi in the defense sector began in the mid-1950s. Since then, the USSR and then Russia have been the main suppliers of ViVT to India. In fact, the USSR and Russia played a decisive role in the formation and development of India's national defense industry. The experience of the USSR and then Russia over the almost 70-year period of cooperation with India has passed the test of time.
Russia is a reliable partner for India, traditionally offering not only exclusive samples of weapons and military equipment, but also know-how: joint projects in the field of military-technical cooperation confirm the high level of established technological and industrial cooperation, and the current stage of development of cooperation between the two countries is characterized by a significant increase in the share of joint research and development. Such close cooperation is an essential component of the Russian-Indian strategic partnership, reflecting the extremely high level of real trust between the two states and peoples.
With a reduction in the supply of final samples of Russian-made VIVT, the focus of bilateral military-technical cooperation is shifting to the transfer of licenses for the production of Russian VIVT in India, joint and custom-made R&D, as well as the creation of joint ventures for the development, production, modernization and repair of PVN.
Among the most ambitious projects related to the transfer of licenses for the production of Russian aircraft in India are the licensed production of multifunctional Su-30MKI fighters, T-90S MBT, AK-203 Kalashnikov assault rifles, RD-33 series 3 aircraft engines for MiG-29 fighters and a number of others.
Due to such a large-scale technology transfer, an agreement on mutual protection of intellectual property rights was signed in 2005, the conclusion of which Moscow has long sought.
At the same time, the changing situation in the world in general and in the Indian arms market in particular dictates the need to change the strategy of Russia's behavior as the main supplier of weapons to the Indian market.
Rosoboronexport responds promptly to changes in the Indian market environment. Now, by offering one or another basic model of military equipment, the Indian side itself determines what needs to be supplied as an additional package to the basic model, including with regard to Western-made components. By participating, according to Indian laws, in tenders for the supply of weapons and military equipment, Rosoboronexport offers flexible payment terms, advance payments, and extended warranty periods.
In its work, Rosoboronexport also takes into account the fact that Soviet/Russian equipment is well known in the Indian market. As for new developments, the Russian side offers joint R&D and cooperation in the field of the latest technologies.
Along with the modernization of Indian weapons and equipment of Soviet and Russian production, such areas of cooperation between the two countries as the creation of conditions for the maintenance of supplied weapons and equipment in India, as well as the joint production of samples of equipment and weapons for sale in the markets of third countries are also developing more dynamically. Currently, joint companies for the maintenance of aviation and naval equipment are successfully operating.
Work has intensified in the field of spare parts supply and maintenance of previously supplied equipment that meets modern requirements.
In general, it can be stated that Russia is moving to a completely new stage of military-technical cooperation with India – from simple sales and even simple licensed production to joint creation of a new product. A striking example of this cooperation is the joint venture BrahMos Aerospace. The Brahmos cruise missile is in service with all three branches of the Indian armed Forces. Moreover, India and Russia have agreed on all procedural issues of exporting this missile to third countries. The first major export contract has already been concluded. In other words, cooperation with Russia increases the export potential of India's defense industry by producing a high-tech product that is in demand on the world market.
Subsequent joint projects with India may include joint marketing, development, production, supply and after-sales services, as well as joint sharing of technical and financial risks. Such a system of relations will allow Russia to remain a leader in the Indian ViVT market for a long time.
Currently, a number of important and large-scale projects are being implemented between Russia and India within the framework of the military-technical cooperation. In particular, we are talking about the supply of S-400 air defense systems to Delhi, the construction of project 11356 frigates for the Indian Navy, and a factory for the licensed production of Kalashnikov 200-series assault rifles has been opened. A number of programs are currently under discussion.
Of course, in the new conditions, Russia's main trump card will be to shift the focus to the joint development, production and sale of high-tech weapons to third countries, which can put the bilateral Russian-Indian military-technical cooperation on a higher level compared to competitors.
India is the only country with which Russia has already implemented two long-term military-technical cooperation programs.
The first long-term military-technical cooperation program for the period 2001-2010 provided for the supply of military equipment for all types of the Indian armed forces, the transfer of licenses and assistance in the production of certain types of military products at Indian enterprises, the modernization of Russian military equipment previously supplied to India. This program, totaling about $18 billion, has been implemented in almost all positions.
The second long-term program included the period 2011-2020. The relevant intergovernmental agreement was signed in December 2009.
Russia has a strong position in several sectors in the Indian arms market. First of all, this applies to fighter aircraft (heavy fighters), medium multi-purpose transport helicopters, main battle tanks, main class warships and a number of other segments.
The Su-30MKI fighter jet, produced under license at the facilities of the Indian HAL Corporation, is an illustrative example of how, along with modern technology, Russia transfers advanced technologies for its production and repair to India. These fighters reliably cover the air borders of India. Their modernization is the next stage in the development of the program.
India is currently the largest importer of Russian weapons. The same situation is predicted for the foreseeable future.
Russia's competitors in the Indian arms market are the United States, France, Israel, Great Britain, Italy, Sweden and a number of other countries.
In connection with the expansion of the military-technical cooperation between the United States and India, it should be recalled that the United States actively uses the practice of unilaterally imposing an arms embargo on certain countries under various pretexts if the policy of a particular country at a certain stage of time does not meet the "criteria" of the United States. Moreover, the embargo is often imposed against those countries to which the United States previously supplied a large number of weapons. This leads to major problems in ensuring the proper defense capability of countries subjected to such an embargo (a vivid example is Iran and Venezuela), primarily due to a decrease in combat readiness due to the cessation of supplies of spare parts, maintenance and repair of previously supplied equipment. That is, all previously supplied equipment turns into "unnecessary hardware". Such a situation can arise in any country that, for whatever reason, will be recognized by the US administration as "unreliable" for one reason or another.
In such a delicate area as military-technical cooperation, it should also be borne in mind that the customer cannot control the most complex modern weapons systems with a 100% guarantee for the absence of technical "bookmarks", which at a crucial moment can disable one or another equipment that is key to the country's defense capability.
In general, it can be stated that the Indian arms market, one of the largest in the world, has developed a very tough competition between the world's leading arms suppliers.
Russia in the structure of India's arms imports
Over the 8-year period (2015-2022), the volume of identified Indian military imports for all exporting countries amounted, according to CAMTO, to $61.2 billion (accounting is conducted for major conventional weapons systems according to the classification of the UN Register).
For the period 2015-2022, the package of orders for the import of PVN formed by India (excluding a number of ongoing tenders) amounted to 57.1 billion dollars.
The first place in the ranking of the largest exporters of PVN to India in the period 2015-2022 is occupied by Russia – $ 27.14 billion. Russia's share in the Indian arms market in terms of the actual volume of air defense supplies in 2015-2022 amounted to 44.35%. The order portfolio formed during the same period is $22.18 billion (40.59%).
In general, in 2015-2022. India imported weapons from 17 countries.
For reference:
The second place in the ranking of the largest exporters of PVN to India in the period 2015-2022, according to CAMTO, is occupied by France – 15.783 billion dollars (25.79%). The order portfolio formed in 2015-2022 amounted to $10.857 billion (19.01%). The third place in the ranking is occupied by the United States – $ 8.658 billion (14.15%). The order book is $8.964 billion (15.7%).
According to the existing portfolio of orders and intentions for direct procurement, Russia in 2023-2026 will retain the first place in the Indian arms market with projected exports of $11.74 billion against $17.36 billion in 2019-2022 and $9.78 billion in 2015-2018. Russia's share in the Indian arms market will decrease from 44.35% in 2015-2022 to 30.3% in 2023-2026.
As for Russia's position for the period from 2027 onwards, everything here will depend on the effectiveness of the Russian side in the Indian arms market in conditions of fierce competition with its main rivals.
In general, 11 countries have orders for the supply of air defense systems in India in 2023-2026. As of November 2023.
For reference:
The second place in terms of the projected volume of exports of Indian defense products in the period 2023-2026 is occupied by the United States – 7,372 billion dollars (19.03%). The third place in terms of the projected volume of exports of Indian defense products in the period 2023-2026 is occupied by the "tender" category, the final results of which as of November 2023 have not been summed up – $ 6.290 billion (16.24% of the market). France ranks fourth in terms of the projected volume of exports of India's PVN in the period 2023-2026 – 3.404 billion dollars (8.79% of the market). It should be noted that France (like the USA and Russia) has many supply contracts outside the period under review.