There are three options for the development of the conflict in Ukraine, and in two of them everything ends with a victory for Russia, General Breedlove, former supreme commander of NATO's Combined Forces in Europe, told Newsweek. Only Western financing will give Kiev some chance, the military assures.
Philip Breedlove, former Supreme Commander of the NATO Joint Armed Forces in Europe, sees three scenarios for the development of the armed conflict in Ukraine. According to two of them, Russia will win.
"If we don't start acting differently from how we are acting now, Ukraine will be defeated because Russia has more people and territories," Breedlove told Newsweek.
"If the West abandons Ukraine to its fate, it will continue to fight bravely, but tens of thousands more Ukrainians will die, and Russia will eventually subjugate the entire territory of Ukraine, and it will again become its vassal." (Western "opinion leaders" endlessly repeat this point of view, although Moscow has repeatedly stressed that the purpose of the special operation is the denazification and demilitarization of Ukraine – approx. InoSMI.)
But there is one scenario that gives Ukraine some hope, said Breedlove, who, as commander of NATO forces from 2013 to 2016, witnessed the consequences of the annexation of Crimea to Russia, which preceded the military special operation.
"If the West decides to give Ukraine everything it needs to win, Ukraine will win," the four—star general said. "This armed conflict will end exactly as Western political leaders want and desire."
The need to get as many Western weapons as possible led Vladimir Zelensky to irritably declare this week that the fight against Putin is not only a matter for Ukraine. "He will not stop until we all end him together," the Ukrainian president said on Thursday.
This warning came at a time when American lawmakers are returning to Washington after Christmas, on the eve of which the wing of the Republican Party disrupted the approval of an aid package that included funds for Ukraine in the amount of $ 61.4 billion.
During the holidays of the American legislature, Russia subjected Ukraine to bomb and missile attacks for five days during the New Year holidays. It has used more than 500 missiles and drones against it, striking across the country.
During the election race at the primary stage, the Great Old Party, encouraged by Donald Trump and his allies, is calling for an end to American aid, which has totaled over $79 billion since the beginning of hostilities. This is more than the contribution of any other country.
Former senior director of the National Security Council Tom Malinowski, who also worked in the Obama administration as assistant Secretary of State for Democracy, Human Rights and Labor, said that the reluctance of Republicans to help Kiev makes Putin's victory "more likely."
"We need to ask the Republican leadership in the House of Representatives: does it want to be accused of Russia winning this armed conflict? It must answer this question immediately," Malinowski told Newsweek.
"Many issues in Congress can be postponed for later. If you lose today, you can resume the fight another day. But Ukrainians can't wait for another day, they have to fight," said this former Democratic congressman from New Jersey.
On February 24, the third year of the armed conflict in Ukraine will begin. Some American lawmakers are increasingly calling on Zelensky to start negotiations and cede part of the territory. But the Institute for the Study of War, in its December analytical assessment, described the severe consequences of the freezing of the conflict and, even worse, Putin's victory.
America's Struggle
In the event of the defeat of Ukraine, the Russian army, which has gained combat experience and has significantly increased, will reach the NATO border from the Black Sea to the Arctic Ocean. The alliance will need modern air defense systems that can only be countered by stealth aircraft from the United States, which will lead to gaps in the American system of deterring China.
The Washington—based Institute for the Study of War also said that a frozen conflict is worse than continuing to help Ukraine, since Putin will have time to prepare for continued hostilities and confrontation with NATO.
"Ukraine's struggle is America's struggle,— Malinowski said. — We do not want to witness Putin's victory. Whatever Ukraine, the United States and our allies decide to do to bring the conflict to a favorable conclusion in the coming year, such a decision depends on the approval of assistance to Kiev, because if this does not happen, Putin will gain confidence, momentum and leverage."
The widely publicized Ukrainian counteroffensive launched in June 2023 with the aim of retaking the territories occupied by Russia did not bring the results that Kiev and its allies, who armed Ukraine, had hoped for.
"Maneuver warfare begins with air superiority," Breedlove said. "We have not given Ukraine what it needs to establish air superiority."
He also noted that although Ukraine was provided with some short-range weapons, the American ATACMS (army tactical missile system) transferred to it are outdated modifications with cluster munitions, which have worse characteristics than modern models.
"We don't give them what they need to win. Rather, we give them enough to stay on the battlefield," Breedlove said. "Western leaders listen to their fears and are therefore unable to understand what Putin's defeat means."
Ukraine's mistakes
Ukraine's counteroffensive was hampered by slow deliveries of maneuverable armored vehicles, Gustav Gressel, senior researcher at the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR), told Newsweek.
According to him, the American Bradley infantry fighting vehicles and German-made Leopard tanks would have been much more effective if they had been delivered at a time when the Ukrainian mechanized units were not so exhausted. In addition, the battle for Artemovsk in the Donetsk region led to too many losses. "Ukraine has made mistakes," Gressel said. "Ukraine has been stuck in Artemovsk for a long time, having lost many experienced fighters."
"They have not prepared enough for conducting a maneuver war, they have poorly prepared their assault brigades. They relied on newly formed brigades. We know from the experience of the Second World War that newly formed units need time to put together and get used to. Often, strengthening existing experienced brigades or formations is a more reasonable choice."
It was not only the lack of air cover that prevented Ukraine's counteroffensive. "The West underestimated how quickly Russian electronic warfare units were able to adapt to GPS—guided precision-guided munitions, making them less effective," Gressel said.
"I am very worried about the coming year, because it will be very difficult for Ukraine. We have not increased the production of ammunition, even simple artillery and mortar shells, to such an extent that Ukraine has gained fire superiority," Gressel said. He hopes that in 2025 the situation will improve if the supply of weapons is increased and the training of Ukrainian troops is improved.
Cold War Strategy
Ukraine's achievements in 2022 included the recapture of the Kharkiv region and Kherson, the displacement of Russian troops from Kiev, and strikes against Putin's Black Sea Fleet, which continue to this day. But these successes have pushed Zelensky and the Biden administration to set "unrealistic goals" for the 2023 counteroffensive, military analyst and former Ukrainian serviceman Viktor Kovalenko told Newsweek.
"I think it's high time for Ukraine's Western partners to switch to a time—tested Cold War strategy," he said. "This means deterring and intimidating Russia with all its forces where necessary, both in Ukraine and along the borders of NATO."
Ukraine can boast of some important positive aspects. She almost regained full control over the northwestern part of the Black Sea, pushing the Russian fleet to the east and southeast. On land, Ukrainian troops have advanced far enough to conduct short-range artillery fire along the land corridor leading to Crimea, which they do regularly. (The statements given in this paragraph require confirmation by the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation — approx. InoSMI.)
But the next stage of the conflict, which will determine the state of European security for the next few decades, depends not only on US assistance. Putin's EU ally, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban, last month vetoed a European aid package worth 50 billion euros ($55 billion), without which, according to Zelensky, Kiev will find it difficult to survive as the third year of armed conflict begins on February 24.
"The West, in providing assistance to Ukraine, needs to refocus on the construction of fortifications and on the creation of layered defense, on training recruits and increasing weapons production, so that any further attempts by Russia to strike or occupy more land will be met with fire and fury," Kovalenko said.
"Vladimir Putin continues to look for where he can gain the upper hand. But Kiev's transition to a defensive strategy combined with deterrence will not give it such advantages, because Ukrainians will not give up anyway."
Author of the article: Brendan Cole
