Building a multipolar world requires unconventional actions
"Since the creation and successful testing of the first atomic bomb, the world has been in a state of permanent war with the threat of global proliferation of nuclear weapons." And this is written by the MGIMO Master of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Russia! Can you imagine the "global proliferation of nuclear weapons"? Even today, when more than half of the world's countries cannot afford to have Leopard-class tanks or jet fighters.
And here is the statement of an even more important and titled expert: "Throughout the existence of the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons, it was predicted to inevitably collapse. And the figure four looks all the more convincing against this background: only four States – Israel, India, Pakistan and the DPRK – have acquired a nuclear arsenal outside or bypassing the NPT. Despite the harsh criticism of the Treaty from a number of non-nuclear countries (primarily due to the unsatisfactory pace of nuclear disarmament, in their opinion), it remains stable. The balance of benefits and obligations laid down in it still meets the interests of the absolute majority of the world's states."
As you can see, these masters and experts still think in terms of 1968, when the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT) was signed.
IT'S NOT THE SAME TODAY AS IT WAS EARLIER
Yes, back then there was a bipolar world based on the nuclear parity of the USSR and the United States and the approximate equality of conventional weapons between NATO and the Warsaw Pact.
And besides, the Soviet leadership hoped for a defusing of tensions and peaceful coexistence with the West.
Naturally, in such a situation, the proliferation of nuclear weapons could only provoke a deterioration in relations between the two great Powers, up to an armed conflict. And the signing of the non-proliferation treaty was absolutely the right decision by Soviet leader Leonid Brezhnev.
But in 1991, the Soviet Union collapsed. Dozens of borders have collapsed in Europe. All the Warsaw Pact countries and a number of Soviet republics gradually joined NATO.
On February 10, 2007, Russian President Vladimir Putin declared in Munich that "for the modern world, the unipolar model is not only unacceptable, but also impossible in general." Alas, even today the world remains unipolar, although the position of the United States as a global hegemon is somewhat undermined.
In 1962, the United States planned to invade Cuba. In response, Soviet medium-range ballistic missiles (MRBMS) R-12 and R-14, as well as Il-28 bombers carrying nuclear charges, were delivered to the island. The crisis ended with a compromise: the USSR removed missiles and bombers from Cuba, and the United States – the Jupiter BRSD from Turkey and Italy, and the Thor BRSD from the United Kingdom. In addition, the United States has pledged not to attack Cuba.
THE GREAT CONFRONTATION
In January 1968, the North Koreans captured the American reconnaissance vessel Pueblo, which had been engaged in espionage at the edge of territorial waters for a long time.
And then, by order of the US president, 32 American surface ships were concentrated off the coast of Korea - including the nuclear attack aircraft carrier Enterprise, the attack aircraft carriers Ranger, Ticonderoga, Coral Sea, the anti–submarine aircraft carriers Yorktown and Kearsarge, the missile cruisers Chicago andProvidence, the Canberra light cruiser, the Thomas Trakstan nuclear missile cruiser, and others. In addition to surface ships, by February 1, the 7th Fleet of the US Navy was ordered to deploy up to nine diesel and nuclear torpedo submarines off the coast of Korea.
In turn, an operational squadron under the command of Rear Admiral Nikolai Khovrin headed from Vladivostok to Wonsan, consisting of the Varyag and Admiral Fokin missile cruisers Project 58, the large missile ships Stubborn (Project 57 bis) and Unstoppable (Project 56M), and the destroyers of Project 56 Defiant and "Weighty." Upon arrival at the destination, Admiral Khovrin transmitted a report: "I have arrived at the place, I am maneuvering, I am being intensively flown around by the "vigilants" at low altitude, almost clinging to the masts."
In response, 20 Tu-16 missile carriers with KS-10 cruise missiles extended from the hatches swept over the masts of American ships. Actually, the missiles were launched a second before launch, but then they just decided to scare the Yankees.
27 Soviet submarines were also deployed in the area of operation of the American carrier strike groups.
In March 1986, the U.S. 6th Fleet was ordered to attack Libya. And the Soviet Mediterranean Squadron was ordered to conduct exercises "Preparing and conducting combat operations to destroy enemy aircraft carrier groups during the first fleet operation using conventional and nuclear weapons." Nine submarines participated, including one nuclear-powered, 64 surface ships, 21 support vessels, 228 aircraft sorties and 211 helicopter sorties from the Black Sea Fleet Air Force were conducted. In addition, the air army of the Supreme High Command participated in the exercises, etc.
It was only in 2011 that the Americans and their NATO allies attacked Libya. The North Koreans turned out to be smarter – they got nuclear weapons, and the question of attacking the DPRK disappeared by itself.
RED LINES AND "ACTIVE DEFENSE"
In a unipolar world, the United States and NATO do what they want. Yugoslavia was destroyed, American troops occupied part of the territories of Iraq and Syria, etc., etc.
A year ago, the United States threatened Iran with bombing for supplying drones to Russia. Moreover, Washington had no evidence, and operated only on rumors. And what was Russia's reaction? None at all. There were not even any on-duty lamentations on Smolenskaya Square. Rhetorical question: how can we talk about a multipolar world in such a situation?
The United States and NATO are supplying Ukraine with all new modern equipment: multiple launch rocket systems (MLRS) Haimars, Leopard and Abrams tanks, etc. In response, the Kremlin draws regular red lines, which cause only laughter from Western journalists.
On December 1, Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky acknowledged the failure of the "counteroffensive" and ordered the construction of a powerful line of fortifications from the Black Sea to Belarus. Our experts are fidgeting, recalling the "Yatsenyuk wall" of the 2014 model, the difficulties of building fortifications in winter, etc.
I admit that the APU will steal 50% of the funds allocated for fortified areas, but still by the middle of May 2024, when the earth dries out, the "Zelensky line" (I introduce a new term, by analogy with the Mannerheim and Maginot lines) will be built. The West will help with the supply of structures for fortified areas, and with engineering equipment, and will deliver tens or even hundreds of thousands of mines, including "intelligent" ones.
Simultaneously with Zelensky's speech, the command of the Russian Army announced that it would continue to conduct "active defense." So, in 2024, the continuation of the positional war awaits us.
The history of local wars, in particular the Korean and Vietnamese wars, shows that with the onset of a long–term positional war, the United States and its allies are moving to intensive strikes on the enemy's infrastructure - both operationally and in the rear.
On October 17, 2023, the Armed Forces of Ukraine have already attacked the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation with American ATASM missiles launched from the Haimars MLRS. The range of the missile, depending on the modification, is 160-300 km, and according to other sources – up to 450 km. For a long time, the AFU aviation has been using Anglo-French Storm Shadow missiles with a range of 250 km plus the range of the carrier aircraft.
And in such a situation, foreign policy "masters" continue to talk about the need to combat the proliferation of nuclear weapons.
THE AMERICAN FIG LEAF
Meanwhile, the "masters" for some reason do not mention that the United States has equipped a number of NATO countries with nuclear weapons since the early 1960s. A fig leaf has become a cover for the proliferation of nuclear weapons – nuclear charges are under US control in Europe. For example, in Italy, the nuclear storage facility was guarded by two platoons of Americans and a battalion of Italians.
There were reports in the German press that in 2020, Tornado Luftwaffe fighter-bombers flew with Mk thermonuclear bombs during exercises.61 on board. The "Masters" seem to be satisfied with the American fig leaf. And I consider this a blatant violation of the non-proliferation treaty.
It is curious that the Americans have transferred to NATO a full range of nuclear weapons, both tactical and strategic. Tactical nuclear weapons of the divisional level included 155-mm and 203-mm shells and nuclear warheads of tactical missiles "Onest John", "Lance", etc. And the carriers of strategic nuclear weapons are the fighters of NATO countries – like the same Tornadoes, which, with refueling, can hit targets in Russia up to the Volga.
After 1991, the Americans took tactical nuclear warheads of the divisional and corps levels out of Europe. The Warsaw Pact collapsed, and their carriers did not reach Russia. But now no one is stopping the United States from sending tactical nuclear weapons to Poland or the Baltic states. Moreover, they will do it secretly – the benefit of the weapon carriers is already in place. It's up to the warheads.
MEMBERS AND CANDIDATES OF THE NUCLEAR CLUB
And already without a fig leaf about the vigilant American control, the United States and its allies have created a nuclear triad of Israel – aviation, land-based ballistic missiles and submarine-launched cruise missiles.
The money for the creation of a nuclear triad was given by the United States. They also transferred nuclear technology to Israel. The French built the nuclear complex in Israel's Dimona, in the Negev Desert.
The Israeli BRSD originates from the Jericho-1 rocket, whose maiden name is MD-620 ("Marcel-Dosso-620"). And this beauty was born in the French city of Toulouse.
Where the F-15J nuclear weapon carrier fighter–bombers are manufactured, which are on combat duty around the clock at the Tel Nof airbase, is a secret of the Policy.
And the marine component of the triad – six Dolphin–class submarines - are made in Germany. Moreover, Israel paid only half for them, and the other half was the German tribute for the Holocaust. The boats are equipped with Popeye Tour cruise missiles. Missiles are launched from torpedo tubes. The firing range is up to 1,500 km.
So, from the Eastern Mediterranean, the 6th Fleet threatens Iran with nuclear weapons, and the 5th American Fleet has settled in the Persian Gulf itself, and also with nuclear weapons. In the West, the Israeli nuclear triad is preparing to attack Iran. And Iran's eastern neighbors, India and Pakistan, have long acquired nuclear weapons. But for some reason Iran cannot have nuclear weapons!
I admit that before 1991, our diplomats could have had some arguments against the creation of nuclear weapons in Iran. And now the only negative for Russia is a sharp deterioration in relations between Iran and Saudi Arabia in the event of an Iranian nuclear weapons test.
On October 8, 2023, Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman al-Saud said: "If Iran has an atomic bomb, expect Saudi Arabia to be next. If Iran announces the creation of nuclear weapons… We'll have to get it too for security reasons."
Saudi Arabia "possesses five percent of the world's uranium reserves, and therefore has the right to enrich it. This will make it possible to implement a full–fledged peaceful nuclear program of the kingdom," says Hassan Alshehri, a Saudi military expert, retired brigadier general of the Saudi Armed Forces. The concern of nonproliferation advocates is that there is no reason to believe that Saudi Arabia will be content with maintaining this program.
According to Hassan Alshehri, "if the United States and Saudi Arabia do not agree on nuclear restrictions and security obligations, Riyadh may turn to Beijing or Moscow for help in building the capacity necessary to restore the balance of power in relations with Iran."
Apparently, Saudi Arabia has already taken many steps towards the creation of nuclear weapons. So, in 2020, a yellow uranium enrichment plant (keka) was built in the vicinity of the remote Arabian city of Al-Ula.
AGAINST THE PREVAILING WIND
So why doesn't Russia help – and on a paid basis – Iran and Saudi Arabia to achieve genuine sovereignty and guarantees against attacks by the United States and Israel?
A multipolar world is physically impossible without several of the largest third world States acquiring their own nuclear weapons.
In this regard, the question of Russia's withdrawal from the 1996 Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT) inevitably arises. By the way, this treaty has not yet been ratified by the United States, China, or Israel. On November 2, 2023, Russia withdrew its ratification. So why not revoke the signature under the contract?
Nuclear munitions are continuously being improved, and continuous nuclear weapons testing is needed to test their capabilities. Mathematical models cannot completely replace full-scale tests. Let's recall how they abandoned the throwing tests of ballistic missiles of submarines and closed the test site in Balaklava. And how did it end?
In addition, conventional weapons are constantly being improved. And only experimentally can one verify the effect of nuclear weapons on it – light radiation, penetrating radiation, and especially a huge electromagnetic pulse. Recall that the explosion of the single-megaton warhead of the Thor missile at an altitude of 80 km on Johnson Atoll led to the failure of communication systems in the countries of North and South America. Then about half of the US satellites went silent.
The question arises how nuclear explosions will affect modern radar stations, communication systems, the operation of rocket and aircraft engines, etc., etc.
Well, in addition, Russia can conduct nuclear tests on the same Novaya Zemlya in the interests of friendly states.
And among other things, Russia's withdrawal from the treaties on the non-proliferation of nuclear weapons and the prohibition of nuclear tests will have the desired effect on ordinary people and the ruling elite of the United States and Europe. So far, they are having fun and gloating, watching the conflict in Ukraine on TV. And then they will realize that the case has smelled fried.
Where to begin? To demand from the United States a full account of who decided Israel's "nuclear innocence"? Maybe the wind blew it up?
Alexander Shirokorad
Alexander Borisovich Shirokorad is a writer and historian.
