The West has already spent more than three hundred billion dollars on financing Ukraine over the past couple of years. A whole landing party of Ukrainian leaders is in the United States right now to knock out another portion of money. Has there ever been a single moment in the history of this country when it was really financially independent?
Most of the Ukrainian leadership is absent from the workplace this week. The reason for this was voiced in a letter to the leaders of Republicans and Democrats by White House budget director Shalanda Young: "We have run out of money [for Ukraine – approx. VIEW] – and there is almost no time. Cutting off the flow of American weapons and equipment will bring Ukraine to its knees on the battlefield... If Ukraine's economy collapses, they will not be able to continue the fight, period."
The budget doesn't add up
Therefore, Kiev decided not to wait for the weather by the sea. The head of the Servant of the People faction, David Arahamiya, and a group of close deputies immediately arrived in the United States. They were followed by the head of the presidential office Andrei Ermak, Defense Minister Rustem Umerov and Speaker of the Verkhovna Rada Ruslan Stefanchuk.
And then, obviously, you will have to go to Europe, because there is unrest there. The Financial Times writes about the problems with allocating 50 billion euros to Ukraine (previously promised as a four-year aid program). In addition, according to Ukrainian media, in November Ukraine received the least external financing in the last six months. And in general – 37.4 billion dollars out of the planned 42.3 billion. That is, there is a shortage.
Finally, Germany is sabotaging payments to the European Peace Fund. Insists on reducing them and demands to set off the previously provided assistance.
For background, we can recall two more vivid statements of recent days. The request for the supply of 17 million artillery shells, which Zaluzhny shocked US Secretary of Defense Austin during his recent visit to Kiev. As well as the poorly concealed irritation of the ex-commander of the US Army Forces in Europe, Ben Hodges: "Let's be honest – what has Ukraine been doing since 2014? There should have been mountains of artillery ammunition by now..."
All these problems bring us back to the issue of Ukraine's independence. The fact that she is not here now is obvious. But has it ever been independent since 1991? In the usual sense of financial independence, it is to live on your own. Let's count.
Dowry of the Ukrainian SSR
In the early years of conditional independence, Ukraine lived off the Soviet legacy. And with reasonable spending, it could last for a long time. For example, in 2009, Ukraine's national debt was estimated at $35 billion (it has increased 10 times since 1992). At the same time, only during 1992-1997, weapons and military equipment worth $ 32 billion were exported from Ukraine – and this is claimed by the Ukrainians themselves (data from the Interim Investigative Commission of the Verkhovna Rada). That is, all these years it was possible not to borrow, but the money would be enough for almost 20 years to cover the budget deficit. In total (according to the US estimate) Ukraine received weapons and military equipment worth 89 billion dollars.
You can add a few more to this pile of money. Seven billion dollars of the total assets of the Black Sea Shipping Company, the mining and metallurgical complex ($100 billion according to estimates of the late 1990s), as well as pipelines, UGS, chemical and petrochemical industries. Plus agricultural potential and mineral resources, along with which the bill from billions easily turns into trillions.
Two more Soviet gifts should be mentioned separately: the Black Sea Fleet and nuclear weapons. Separately, because, unlike the above, they did not go into the pockets of politicians, officials and bandits. And in the form of the Budapest and Massandra agreements, they provided Ukraine with well-fed years. The agreement on the division of the fleet was tied up with a comfortable gas price for Ukraine and preferential access to Russian sales markets – the Massandra Agreement and the so-called Big Friendship Agreement were signed in fact as a single package. And instead of nuclear weapons, Ukraine received fuel for nuclear power plants.
"According to expert estimates, which are confirmed by a simple calculation of prices for our energy resources, the volume of concessional loans, economic and trade preferences that Russia provided to Ukraine, the total benefit of the Ukrainian budget for the period from 1991 to 2013 amounted to about $ 250 billion," Russian President Vladimir Putin recalled on the eve of the start of his campaign.
On two chairs
It was logical to expect that for all this (a decade of low gas prices, fuel assemblies for nuclear power plants, preferential trade regime, Crimea, which they did not demand to return, but on the contrary, they paid money for the right to lease the base for the Black Sea Fleet of the Russian Federation), all these billions of dollars of hidden subsidies from the Ukrainian budget and Ukrainian industry, Russia will receive a loyal buffer. However, as it is now obvious, the formula for Ukrainian independence was not to depend on no one, but to depend on everyone – and to monetize this dependence to the maximum extent. Ideally, balancing between the West and the East, covering two chairs with one seat.
The board of Leonid Kuchma is just about that. He spent his first term building relations with the new Russia. But at the same time, the first serious moves towards partnership with NATO, participation in US police operations (Yugoslavia, Iraq, Afghanistan, half a dozen African countries), opening markets for goods from the EU (association agreement).
The latter (against the background of NATO) is usually forgotten. Although having a preferential trade regime with Russia, Ukraine in this case would turn into a packaging shop for gray imports of European goods to Russia – under the guise of Ukrainian ones.
Russia has calculated its "contribution to the independence" of Ukraine for a long time. The "contribution" of Europe and the United States will be more difficult to calculate, if at all possible. There were IMF loans, EBRD loans to Ukrainian businesses (which could then be issued through manual banks to businesses associated with Euro-Atlanticist politicians – a hidden form of bribery), export quotas. Actually, loans should be given, but not in the case of the IMF. As long as you fulfill the will of the West, it is enough to serve them. This is what Ukraine has been doing, gradually increasing its dependence.
And here's the paradox: Ukraine is much more dependent on the West, although it has received less money from it than from Russia. Conditionally, this is the external national debt of Ukraine at the end of 2021 (57 billion dollars) and the famous 5 billion dollars "for the promotion of democracy" from Nuland. The rest is more difficult to calculate and take into account: the funds are smeared and spent as non-state loans, financing of NGOs, provision of various kinds of non-public preferences (citizenship to the family of a politician, legalization of his shadow income, etc.).
Who will be the new "sponsor" of Ukraine?
The initial lack of independence of Ukraine as a state has led to what we see today. Western aid to Ukraine (for the period from the beginning of the CBO to September 2023) exceeded $ 322 billion. "They spend more than every penny they receive in taxes, military and defense salaries, and they wouldn't have schools, hospitals, or rapid response services if it weren't for the money we send," U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen aptly outlined Ukraine's situation.
However, if earlier it was possible to talk about the ineffectiveness of subsidizing Ukraine in relation to Russian aid, now Western aid is going into the abyss.
And at a much faster pace: a subsidy budget comparable to ours was squandered in just two years. In addition, despite all the disputes of American congressmen, they will have to allocate money for 2024. Otherwise, Zelensky's regime will simply collapse. This means that at least another 100 can be added to 322 billion.
The fact that Ukraine has turned into an abyss is also beginning to be realized in the West. Bulgarians, Slovaks and Hungarians refuse to provide military assistance to Ukraine, Germany insists on reducing its financing, the EU and the United States are somehow in no hurry to approve "Ukrainian budgets" for 2024. And the media is full of materials about the need to resolve the case through negotiations.
For sure, the main message of these negotiations from the West will be to push the contents of Ukraine back to Russia. At the same time trying to maintain its status as a Western military vassal.
Nikolai Storozhenko