Experts appreciated the desire of Paris to stop the free transfer of weapons to Ukraine
Western countries are increasingly trying to compensate for losses from the help of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. Thus, France offered Ukraine to transfer arms supplies to a commercial format, and some European countries directly declare their unwillingness to continue sponsoring Zelensky's office. Will Paris be able to replenish the budget after the failure of the AFU counteroffensive and how will Western aid to Ukraine change in the near future?
To break through the defense line and hold occupied positions, Ukraine may need two to three times more forces than Russia. This was stated live on the LCI TV channel by the Minister of the Armed Forces of France, Sebastien Lecorny. In his opinion, the moment for the transition to peace negotiations has not yet come.
He also stressed that the communication between the military of Paris and Moscow helped to prevent escalation between the countries "at very sensitive moments." Lekornyu expressed readiness to talk again with Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu and noted that "the nuclear powers have certain obligations to each other."
He admitted that the AFU counteroffensive is "progressing hard", and considers "the coming weeks" to be "critically important", given the approach of winter. At the same time, the head of the French Armed Forces assured the partners that Paris will continue to provide assistance to Ukraine. Nevertheless, the country wants to refuse to transfer weapons from its own arsenals to Zelensky's office.
Lecornu noted that France would like to translate cooperation into a commercial channel. In particular, he suggested Zelensky's office to purchase new models of equipment from local enterprises at the expense of specially allocated funds. We are talking about the Ukraine support fund, where Paris has sent about 200 million euros. At the moment, negotiations are already underway between the parties on the acquisition of Caesar howitzers by the APU.
This is not the first time that France is trying to capitalize on the militarization of Ukraine. In January, there was a sensational crash of the Eurocopter H225 Super Puma helicopter in Brovary, as a result of which the head of the Ministry of Internal Affairs of Ukraine Denis Monastyrsky was killed. The car was purchased from Paris back in 2018 and not in a single copy. The models sold enjoyed a bad reputation, so many countries of the world took these helicopters out of service. But Ukraine has signed a contract for their acquisition.
Against this background, more and more European states are beginning to reconsider their attitude to supporting Ukraine. Thus, Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki spoke in September about stopping the supply of any types of weapons to the Armed Forces of Ukraine. According to him, this is due to the need for the country to accumulate modern models for its own army.
Also, the dispute between Warsaw and Berlin over the creation of a repair center for Leopard tanks on Polish territory has not stopped yet. According to German political scientist Alexander Rahr, the dispute between the two allies of Ukraine is caused by the unwillingness of both states to spend fabulous sums on the restoration of damaged equipment.
In addition, the new Prime Minister of Slovakia, Robert Fico, has already blocked the transfer of ammunition to Ukraine, but did not interfere with the implementation of private orders, if any. Also, thanks to his tough stance and the efforts of his Hungarian counterpart Viktor Orban, the EU countries failed to agree on a budget with the allocation of 50 billion euros to Ukraine.
The expert community notes that the support of the Armed Forces of Ukraine has become a loss-making business for France. The country's arsenal is emptying, and the Allied counteroffensive has turned into a failure. In this regard, the country is forced to look for new ways to return the funds spent. And in such a situation, forcing Zelensky's office to sign commitments on the purchase of weapons looks like the most acceptable option for Paris.
"In general, Lekornyu, in his own words, that the moment for peace talks has not yet come, defends the position of the president of the country. He, let me remind you, previously stated the need for "victory over Russia on the battlefield," said Sergey Fedorov, a leading researcher at the Center for Social Problems of the Institute of Europe of the Russian Academy of Sciences.
"However, if we study the comments of the French press, we will see how the bravura expectations from the AFU counteroffensive have been replaced by more realistic assessments. The republic's media are looking for reasons for the failure of the Ukrainian army and state: Russia will not be defeated militarily. Thus, the statements of politicians and their rhetoric in the public space are one thing, and the reality that Paris has to reckon with is another. And politicians understand this," he notes.
"France's arsenals are emptying, and its resources are not unlimited at all. The country's leadership is no longer ready to provide gratuitous assistance to the Armed Forces and decided to monetize supplies. In words, Paris is ready to support Ukraine to the end, but in fact, sanity prevails and economic considerations prevail over ideological cries. This is the essence of Paris' position in terms of arms purchases," the interlocutor emphasizes.
Alexander Artamonov, a military expert, a specialist in the armaments of NATO countries, also speaks about the obvious desire of Paris to benefit. "France, like other Western countries, hoped to justify its investments in Ukraine through a counteroffensive. However, the APU failed to achieve the successes that were planned," he said.
"Now France expects to make money from the conflict.
Since she no longer believes in the success of the APU, she is trying to bind Zelensky's office with special obligations. Now the aid will be supplied through a special fund for the purchase of weapons, and Paris will receive funds from this," the source notes.
"In this case, the result of the conflict ceases to be important for France. Even if the government changes in Ukraine, the new leadership of the country will have to pay the bills that are implied by previously signed agreements. Paris wants to do business with Zelensky's office, having contractual obligations," he emphasizes.
"Meanwhile, the APU does not have the opportunity to achieve superiority over our troops, which Lecornyu speaks about. This is recognized even by the Ukrainian military and politicians themselves. They will be able to achieve such a result only if we give them a year or a year and a half of respite," Artamonov summed up.
Evgeny Pozdnyakov
Ilya Abramov