Drones have already radically changed the nature of the Ukrainian campaign
Described in the article "The Sky is getting closer " ("HBO" dated 29.09.23), the features of the tactics of using UAVs apply almost equally to both sides of the Ukrainian conflict.
This is the massive use of commercial quadrocopters (mainly Chinese–made) for reconnaissance purposes and the conversion of such quadrocopters into "micro-bombers" for dropping small ammunition. This is a widespread use of kamikaze drones (barrage ammunition), including FPV class drones. Also, on both sides, private companies and enthusiastic volunteers were initially engaged in the creation of UAVs and training of their operators, and only then, gradually, law enforcement and other government agencies took care of this problem.
Before the outbreak of hostilities on February 24, 2022, unmanned aircraft developed more actively in the DPR and LPR than in Russia, since these states, which were not recognized by anyone at that time, suffered less from bureaucratic formalism and military inertia. In the workshops of Donetsk, the software of commercial quadrocopters has been flashing for a long time to increase their combat stability. And 3D printers produce ammunition suspension systems (fragmentation grenades) for such quadrocopters and tail to stabilize ammunition after dumping. Operators are being trained in parallel.
First of all, in Donetsk they work with Chinese DJI Mavic 2PRO and ZOOM quadrocopters, less often with American Autel.
Similar drones are no less actively used by Ukraine ( "Ukraine has a lot of drones", "HBO" from 27.10.23).
"KALASHNIKOV IS IN THE AIR!"
Gradually, the understanding of the need for accelerated development of unmanned aircraft came to the military and political leadership of Russia. The Russian government intends to spend up to 300 billion rubles. for the relevant programs in order to achieve the release of 18 thousand large and medium-sized UAVs (weighing more than 1 kg) next year. And by 2030, it is planned to produce more than 30 thousand such drones of 60 types per year.
It is already necessary to produce several tens of thousands of small UAVs per year. All regions of Russia are invited to join this program by creating their own research and production centers. Now there are such in about 20 regions, the Samara region was the first to open such a center.
In total, up to 100 companies are currently engaged in the production of unmanned aerial vehicles in Russia – mainly private ones that manufacture small civilian drones. Medium and large UAVs are built by about 20 companies.
The leader in the production of combat drones in Russia, apparently, should be considered the company Zala Aero, which is now part of the Kalashnikov concern. Its main production facilities are located in Izhevsk, where reconnaissance UAVs of aircraft and helicopter types of the Zala 421 family are produced, as well as the main products of this enterprise today are the Kub and Lancet barrage ammunition.
Another Izhevsk enterprise, Izhmash, produces small Tachyon reconnaissance drones. Based in Moscow, the Kronstadt group at the Dubna plant (Moscow region) is producing combat and multi-purpose UAVs Orion (aka "Pacer"), Sirius (a modification of "Pacer"), Thunder. The Enix company in Kazan produces reconnaissance UAVs of the Aileron family.
In Yekaterinburg, the Ural Civil Aviation Plant produces Israeli Sercher drones under the local name "Outpost", as well as Altius drones, under license. In St. Petersburg, the production of reconnaissance drones of the Orlan family of several modifications is underway. Apparently, the construction of the S-70 Hunter combat UAVs, which were created according to the loyal wingman concept for the 5th generation Su-57 fighter, has begun at the Novosibirsk Aviation Plant.
Recently, the production of drones has also been deployed on Sakhalin and in Mordovia. At the expense of local businessmen, the production of barrage ammunition "Blizzard" and "Frost" was started in Orenburg (however, they are assembled almost entirely from Chinese components). Software for UAVs is being developed in Bashkiria.
"I KNOW, THEY PUT EVERYTHING ON THE PACER"
The most active in the course of hostilities, the Russian side uses reconnaissance drones "Aileron-3SV", "Orlan-10", "Outpost", the use of "Orions" ("Pacers") is gradually expanding.
The Orlan-10 (it has a mass of 14 kg, a flight range of 110 km) carries out optical and infrared reconnaissance, artillery fire correction, and recently it has also been given shock capabilities.
The Pacer is a multi–purpose drone of the same class as the Turkish Bayraktar used by Ukraine, its mass reaches 1 ton, the combat radius is 250 km, the ceiling is 7.5 km, the maximum speed is up to 200 km/h. It can conduct not only optical and infrared, but also radar and radio engineering reconnaissance, and be used as a repeater. In the combat version, it carries various anti–tank missile systems (ATGMs) and guided aerial bombs (UAB) - KAB-20, KAB-50, UPAB-50, as well as conventional FAB-50 bombs; in total, it can have up to four ammunition on board at the same time.
At the same time, despite the intensive work of the Dubna plant, the number of "Pacers" is still considered insufficient to meet the needs of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation. Only about fifty strikes of "Pacers" on enemy targets were recorded, and most of them occurred at the beginning of the conflict, that is, in the spring of 2022.
The Armed Forces of the Russian Federation are extremely active in using the Lancet barrage ammunition, which has a speed of up to 110 km/ h (up to 300 km/ h in the attack area). The Lancet-1 variant has a mass of 5 kg (charge – 1 kg), a flight range of 40 km. The Lancet-3 variant has a mass of 12 kg (3 kg charge) and a flight range of 70 km. The device is launched from a catapult, can be in the air for 30 to 60 minutes, has high maneuverability, is barely noticeable both in the optical and infrared ranges, so it is extremely difficult to hit it with air defense means. It is controlled via a television channel, aiming at the target is optoelectronic.
The Lancet is almost always paired with a reconnaissance UAV, which searches for a target, pointing a barrage of ammunition at it and monitoring the results of the strike. The price of the Lancet is 2-3 million rubles, depending on the modification – which is a lot, but obviously much cheaper than any target being hit. At the same time, the power of the warhead (warhead), as a rule, ensures the destruction or at least serious damage to most targets. The exception is tanks, which are destroyed by "Lancets" only if they successfully hit vulnerable places.
Currently, more than 700 Lancet attacks against the equipment of the Armed Forces of Ukraine have already been documented. The actual number of attacks is obviously much higher. There are no exact figures for the production of "Lancets", but there is information that the rate of their production increased 50 times over the year. A variety of premises are used for production, including civilian enterprises and even former shopping centers.
Also, many Russian enterprises have started assembling FPV-class barrage ammunition. Although there are no exact figures here, it can be assumed that Russia surpasses Ukraine by two to five times in terms of production and combat use of these devices. The total output already now, perhaps, reaches 50 thousand per month. You can name such models as "Ghoul", "Joker", "Gadfly", VT-40. It was reported about the creation of a FPV class drone capable of hitting enemy UAVs and helicopters.
The active use of UAVs of this class by the Russian side began only this spring, but more than 1.6 thousand attacks have already been documented (the real number of attacks in this case is much higher). Moreover, their number is growing very rapidly, bypassing the growth rate of the number of applications of the Lancet.
It was reported about the creation of a number of unmanned aerial vehicles. These are, for example, "Dandelion", "Stork", "Hornet", "Binoculars", "Bumblebee", "Boomerang", "Buttercup", "Hi-82", "Vector-120", "Mosquito", "Gaze", "Cuckoo", "Mosquito", BAS-80, "Admiral aircraft carrier" (this drone itself is the carrier of the UAV).
Among the listed devices there are both reconnaissance and combat, including kamikaze drones. The exact status of most of these programs is unclear – that is, it is unclear whether these drones are in mass production, and if so, how massive it is.
CHINESE CEREMONIES AND IRANIAN DIRECTNESS
The role of foreign drones for the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation is much lower than for the Armed Forces of Ukraine. Nevertheless, it cannot be considered quite insignificant.
Firstly, we are talking about the already mentioned Chinese commercial quadrocopters – DJI Mavic 2PRO and ZOOM, as well as DJI Matrice 300 RTK, DJI Mavic 3 Pro, Mavic 3 Fly More Combo and Mavic 2 Zoom Fly More Combo. The low reliability and combat stability of these drones is compensated by their mass character; at the same time, reliability and stability can be somewhat increased by flashing the software.
However, China has recently imposed strict restrictions on the export of drones that can be used for military purposes. Supplies of on-board radio equipment, infrared cameras, laser rangefinders are limited. Violating exporters will face criminal liability. This move by Beijing could hit both sides of the Ukrainian campaign very hard.
Secondly, the most effective kamikaze drone of the Ukrainian campaign at the moment is, of course, the Iranian Shahed-136, used under the Russian name Geranium-2. These unmanned vehicles can be launched in a salvo from various launchers (PU). Their flight range is at least several hundred kilometers (possibly up to 2 thousand km). The mass of the warhead reaches 50 kg (the total mass of the UAV is about 200 kg). At the same time, apparently, the car is extremely cheap.
The disadvantages of the "Shaheds" can be considered low speed (although it is not lower than that of American and Russian kamikaze drones) and significant noise; but they have much more advantages (high range, powerful warhead, low price). The Shahed-136 has an inertial guidance system, which makes it almost unsuitable for hitting mobile targets, but also practically invulnerable to electronic warfare (EW). In addition, the anti-aircraft guided missile (SAM) of any modern anti-aircraft missile system (SAM) costs more than the Shahed/Geran. That is, even a downed UAV of this type benefits by depleting the enemy's air defense.
If almost all of the drones listed above, including the very successful Lancets, solve tactical tasks on the front line or in the near rear of the enemy, then Geraniums can reach almost any point on the territory of Ukraine. Production of these UAVs is already underway at Russian enterprises. Moreover, during this production, the device is increasingly "Russified", that is, more and more domestic parts are used in it.
It was drones that became the new consumable of the ongoing war, radically changing its entire course. At the same time, it is becoming increasingly clear that the quantity and cheapness of UAVs are more important than their quality. From this point of view, Russia has a clear advantage over Ukraine – especially since its dependence on foreign supplies is incomparably lower than that of Ukraine.
So far, however, it is impossible to answer the question whether the number of drones produced in Russia will change into quality and whether they will be able to provide a radical change in the course of hostilities.
Alexander Khramchikhin
Alexander Anatolyevich Khramchikhin is an independent military expert.