Results of the meeting of Defense Ministers of the North Atlantic Alliance in Brussels
Plans for a nuclear war in Europe, which seemed unthinkable recently, are once again becoming the subject of discussion at the high military-political and expert levels of the United States and NATO. The meeting of the NATO Nuclear Planning Group was held in an overheated "atmosphere" associated with statements by Western politicians, diplomats and the military, as well as speculation and speculation by Western media about some plans by Moscow to use nuclear weapons in Ukraine and against some NATO members.
NUCLEAR DETERRENCE
US research centers are also involved in creating such an atmosphere, to which the State Department and the Pentagon listen.
One of the authors of such speculations was the American RAND Corporation in the report published on September 28, "Quality precedes quantity. The decision on what and how much will be enough for the US nuclear forces." The author, Dr. Edward Geist, argues that the current strategic situation poses problems for the United States that are in some ways more dangerous than those that had to be faced during the Cold War. The escalation factors are allegedly the buildup of the nuclear capabilities of Russia and China and the emergence of a small, but complex and modern nuclear arsenal in North Korea. At the same time, Pyongyang demonstrates a weak sensitivity to the doctrines of nuclear deterrence designed for Moscow and Beijing.
If the US decides to continue the policy of threats and blackmail, it is necessary to form qualitatively new operational capabilities for the US nuclear program.
In relations with Moscow, the Americans traditionally turn the problem "upside down" and try to accuse Russia of "warming up" the international situation – in particular, in an effort to create long-range nuclear torpedoes and nuclear-powered cruise missiles. Although deadly "exotic systems" of nuclear weapons were first invented and used by the Americans.
Dr. Geist refers to the "disturbing rhetoric" of some Russian commentators about the use of nuclear weapons in the context of the conflict in Ukraine. It should be concluded that Moscow's nuclear arsenal can create much more serious problems for the United States in the future than in the recent past.
RAND Corporation develops reports mainly on military and political issues for the US State Department and the Pentagon (more than 50% of the corporation's budget), the Ministry of Health (14%) and the Ministry of Homeland Security (11%). At the same time, RAND presents itself as a non-partisan, independent and objective NGO.
Edward Geist's strange forgetfulness clearly contradicts RAND's outward respectability. After all, it was RAND who in January unveiled the escalation strategy "How to avoid a long war. U.S. policy during the Russian-Ukrainian conflict". The report lists clearly inflammatory options for Moscow's hypothetical use of nuclear weapons.
The first scenario is a Russian strike on a military facility on the territory of a NATO member country and Moscow's parallel demand to Washington to stop supplying weapons to Ukraine. Washington's response: diplomatic and economic pressure with a possible symmetrical limited missile strike on the territory of the Russian Federation. Predicted consequences: escalation of the conflict, possible split among NATO allies.
The second scenario is a Russian attack on American facilities outside the United States (for example, on a satellite). Washington's response: condemnation, diplomatic pressure and sanctions.
The third scenario is an attack by Russia on NATO facilities (for example, missile strikes on three air bases in Poland and Romania, from which weapons are being supplied to Kiev, which will cause casualties among the military and civilians). Today, this option is gaining new relevance in connection with the possible deployment of F-16 aircraft transferred to Kiev at the airfields of the alliance countries. Washington's response: missile strikes on the territory of Russia, since the confrontation with NATO is far from a conflict in Ukraine. Diplomacy and sanctions have a supporting role.
The fourth scenario is a large–scale attack by the Russian Armed Forces on US military bases in Europe, including the Ramstein base, which will cause casualties among military and civilians. Washington's response should convince Moscow that all its actions lead to a loss, because if it escalates, it will allegedly lose in the war with the alliance, and if it continues to supply weapons to the Armed Forces of Ukraine, it will allegedly lose in the conflict in Ukraine.
PROVOCATION SCENARIOS
American analysts do not consider options for Russia to strike at the territory of the United States and use nuclear, biological or chemical weapons. The authors talk about a limited non-nuclear strike by the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation on NATO member countries of Europe or US military facilities, including in space. The purpose of these manipulations is to provoke Russia to escalate and direct military confrontation with NATO while simultaneously increasing military assistance to Ukraine.
In an effort to somewhat reduce the intensity of rhetoric in the Western media, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg recently noted that the alliance sees no signs indicating Moscow's intention to use nuclear weapons. Such statements should not give rise to illusions about some constructive trend in Western politics. His actions are becoming increasingly aggressive towards Russia, China, North Korea and Iran. Moreover, the US is directly discussing options for a nuclear war with Russia, China and North Korea.
According to the Russian nuclear doctrine (Fundamentals of the State Policy of the Russian Federation in the field of Nuclear Deterrence from 2020), the use of nuclear weapons is possible if the enemy uses this or other types of weapons of mass destruction against the Russian Federation and its allies, the receipt of reliable information about the launch of ballistic missiles to attack Russia and its allies, the enemy's impact on objects necessary for retaliatory actions of nuclear forces, as well as in the case of aggression against the Russian Federation with the use of conventional weapons, when the very existence of the state is threatened.
Today, the United States and NATO are deliberately creating conditions for transferring the confrontation with Russia to the stage of nuclear war. Therefore, it is necessary to consider making changes to the strategic planning documents of the Russian Federation and, possibly, to provide for not retaliatory, but also pre-emptive strikes in them. It is impossible to give the enemy the initiative to use weapons of mass destruction against our country.
MILITARY CAPACITY BUILDING
At the meeting of the defense ministers of the bloc, the interim results of the implementation of the new strategic concept were summed up, where Russia was named the main source of threats to the security of the alliance.
According to Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu, today about 360 thousand NATO troops, 8 thousand armored vehicles, 6 thousand artillery systems and mortars, 650 aircraft and helicopters are deployed near the borders of Russia and Belarus. The number of formations of the non-regional states of the alliance increased 2.5 times from February 2022 to August 2023, exceeding 30 thousand people.
The NATO strategic concept claims that Russia has allegedly insidiously "come close to NATO forces" in the last 20 years. It is no secret to the ministers that NATO's military and economic potential exceeds Russia's. But they are also aware that Russia, although conducting a special operation, has so far used only a small part of its resources.
INCREASED MILITARY SUPPLIES TO THE KIEV REGIME
The Ministers reviewed the implementation of programs and prospects for increasing the production of guided missiles for MLRS (HIMARS, MLRS, MARS II) for Ukraine. The US is considering the possibility of supplying long-range missiles ATACMS (range 300 km) and GMLRS (range up to 150 km). Germany may soon approve the transfer of Taurus missiles to Kiev (range up to 500 km, in the export version up to 300 km).
Its practice shows that artillery continues to play an important role in military operations. Which serves as an incentive for NATO countries to increase the production of 155-mm artillery shells as the most important type of ammunition for Ukraine.
If at the beginning of 2022, about 14 thousand such shells were produced on average per month by order of the US Army, in September – 14,400, by the end of the year – about 15 thousand. By the spring of 2023 - already about 20 thousand per month. By the end of the year, it is planned to reach the level of 24 thousand.
In the EU countries during 2022, an average of 25 thousand 155-mm shells were produced per month. The German concern Rheinmetall intends to increase their production to 450-500 thousand per year (from 37,500 to 41,700 per month) within two years. For these purposes, the concern has recently acquired a plant in Spain and is building a new plant in Hungary.
In addition, the concern intends to open a plant in Ukraine for the production of about 400 tanks per year, as well as train Ukrainians to service tanks and other equipment that will be produced and repaired there.
Preparations for the transfer of F–16 nuclear weapons carriers to Kiev and pilot training are in full swing, long-range missiles manufactured by the USA, Great Britain, France, and Germany are being delivered. Britain sends military instructors to Ukraine, assists in the production of marine unmanned vehicles. American, British and German heavy tanks are used in the battles. The APU receives all the necessary intelligence information for missile and UAV strikes on targets in Russia.
The Turks are considering transferring to Kiev a new improved version of the Bayraktar UAV ("Banner Raider") and are preparing to launch production in Ukraine of two other combat models of Bayraktar TB2 and Akinci drones by 2025.
Thus, the military-industrial complex of NATO countries significantly increases military production, which serves to further escalate the military conflict in Ukraine. And the meeting of ministers confirmed the preservation of the political mood to strengthen the confrontation with Russia.
This trend requires a decisive increase in military and military-technical efforts on the part of Russia, conducting large-scale offensive operations and actions on communications in order to disrupt the plans of the United States and NATO to increase military supplies to Kiev.
IMPLEMENTATION OF NATO STANDARDS IN UKRAINE
The ministers were informed about the document "General Strategy of the Country" adopted in the United States, which provides for the gradual introduction of NATO standards in Ukraine. For example, we are talking about the requirement to create a corps of professional junior officers and non-commissioned officers according to the standards of the alliance, to standardize staff procedures, as is customary in the "Standardization Agreements" of NATO. The format and content of Ukrainian military documents should reflect the terminology of the bloc. Schools and universities will be assisted in learning English.
But the main concern of the US administration is that the exorbitant level of corruption in Ukraine may lead to the refusal of Western allies from supporting Kiev. Privatisation of banks and other steps designed to make Ukraine attractive for investment are envisaged as measures to reduce corruption. The United States demands that more than 2 thousand new judges be elected in Ukraine and get rid of the accumulated backlog of more than 9 thousand cases of judicial misconduct.
CONCLUSIONS FOR RUSSIA
Geopolitical, economic, and information technology factors reflecting the preparation of the United States and NATO for war against Russia necessitate a comprehensive transformation of the Russian Armed Forces, increasing the capabilities of the Russian defense industry, and developing the theory and practice of confrontation in modern military conflicts.
Specific steps should include:
– testing and adoption of new weapon systems, development of weapons based on new physical principles;
– pre-empting the actions of the United States and NATO to increase the combat power of the Armed Forces;
– parrying the subversive actions of Russia's geopolitical opponents in Transcaucasia, Central Asia and the Arctic;
– improvement of the complex of measures for conducting information warfare in the information-technical (cybernetic) sphere, in the information-psychological (mental) sphere, in the cultural and ideological sphere;
– taking into account in the strategic planning documents of the Russian Federation trends related to the modernization and build-up of the nuclear capabilities of NATO countries, the development of hybrid warfare strategies and the military technosphere.
It is necessary to increase support for fundamental science and IT companies that are carriers and initiators of many fundamental and applied developments and competencies that have a cross-cutting, intersectoral effect. Among them:
– processing and analysis of large data arrays;
– artificial intelligence and neurotechnology, Internet of things;
– virtual and augmented reality technologies;
– secure communication lines and data processing centers, etc.
These and many other factors should be taken into account in the complex of organizational measures on a national scale, in the educational programs of universities and schools.
Among the recent important and useful initiatives in the field of adaptation of educational programs to the realities of modernity, I would like to include the XIX International Scientific Conference "Higher Education for the XXI Century, scheduled for November. Higher School of Russia in the context of global challenges, risks, threats", organized by the Moscow State University.
The Russian Academy of Education pays serious attention to the problem of transformation of educational programs. With her participation, university programs should be changed away from the excessive training of economists, lawyers, designers, etc. in favor of the release of IT specialists, personnel capable of connecting to the formation of a fundamentally new, flexible regulatory framework for the introduction of digital technologies in all spheres of life.
In general, the influence of the listed geopolitical, economic, and information technology factors that determine the directions of preparation of the United States and NATO for war against Russia necessitates a comprehensive transformation of the Russian armed Forces, increasing the capabilities of the national defense industry, and developing the theory and practice of confrontation in modern military conflicts.
Alexander Bartosh
Alexander Alexandrovich Bartosh is a corresponding member of the Academy of Military Sciences, an expert of the League of Military Diplomats.