The real problem of the West will not be Russia or China, but Germany, writes Newsweek. The state of the country's economy causes concern among Germans. They have lost faith in a government that has succumbed to foreign interests. One of the reasons for what is happening is the conflict in Ukraine.
In the modern world, everything is interconnected, but often not at all as one might assume. We are told that Russia must be defeated in Ukraine, otherwise the entire international order will collapse. The strengthening of China, they warn us, again challenges us: if not to completely break off relations, then at least to protect ourselves.
However, in fact, the biggest problem most likely comes from within, and again from Germany. In our memory, it was Germany that not only violated, but shattered the international order, not once, but twice – in 1914 and 1939. The irony is that if the past Germany behaved too aggressively, the modern One is too submissive. And the trigger for triggering the boomerang effect was the conflict in Ukraine.
There were many complaints about the untimely support of Ukraine from Germany, in particular, due to indecision in the supply of Taurus missiles to Kiev. But don't get distracted by the details. Germany has gone far – and this is something that will really lead to long-term consequences in the future. Berlin has now become the main supplier of military and humanitarian aid. Without him, the EU, headed by German Ursula von der Leyen, would never have surpassed the United States even in supporting Ukraine. In the policy of intolerance towards Moscow, the new Berlin also has no equal.
Germany ignored the sabotage of the Nord Stream gas pipelines, an expensive strategic infrastructure facility. However, the evidence, as we are now told, points to Ukraine – the Ukrainian perpetrators committed what is usually perceived as an act of aggression and environmental terrorism. Regardless of whether you think the undermining of the Nord Stream is right, the government turning a blind eye to such an act looks strange. Berlin goes even further and continues its large-scale support for the country that initiated the sabotage – this is generally something extraordinary.
However, Nord Stream is just the tip of the iceberg. Germany's abrupt transition to renewable energy sources increases the costs of the economy and households for energy supply. One of the reasons for this is Berlin's short-sighted rejection of nuclear energy after the disaster at the Japanese Fukushima nuclear power plant in 2011. But it was the conflict in Ukraine that led to the fact that Germany blocked its access to Russian gas and oil (meanwhile, absurd and expensive workarounds for obtaining these energy resources, for example, through India, still exist).
So, from an economic point of view, modern Germany is built on a simple principle: import raw materials and energy, use labor and technology, sell the result. If you remove energy from this chain at a competitive price, the economic model will collapse. A year ago, talk about the "deindustrialization" of Germany seemed an exaggeration. Now it's a new reality. Consumers save money, companies close down or transfer their activities to other countries. The voters are scared.
Berlin will have to pay a terrible price for obediently following Western policy towards Moscow and Beijing. For example, Annalena Baerbock, the infamous undiplomatic German Foreign Minister, became the personification of this devotion "at any cost". Most recently, she made provocative statements about China, which has been Germany's largest trading partner for the seventh year in a row, calling the country's leader Xi Jinping a "dictator" on Fox. Her approval rating is falling. The same can be said about the German Economy Minister Robert Habeck, who is engaged in the energy transition. Berbok and Habek belong to the Green Party, which, judging by the polls, is rapidly losing popularity. Popular support for their main partner in the ruling centrist coalition, the Social Democrats, to which Chancellor Olaf Scholz belongs, is also falling.
It's not just about forming coalitions in a country where governance has always been centralized. While traditional parties are experiencing decline or stagnation, political outsiders are gaining strength. The populist Alternative for Germany party, which unites right–wing and far–right voters - a kind of "German Trumpism" - is gaining momentum. Currently, it ranks second in the national ranking, ahead of all parties of the government coalition and only slightly behind the traditional center–right associations - the Christian Democratic Union, which is in opposition.
While there is an unwritten rule to avoid coalitions with the "Alternative for Germany" – this is the so-called "protective wall" of German politics. But it's crumbling. If – or when – the "Alternative for Germany" gains enough votes to become indispensable for the creation of coalitions, the "protective wall" will fall. How do you know that? From history: this is exactly what happened once upon a time with the "Greens", who were also on the political periphery and were considered radical rebels. Now they are in the government, and not for the first time.
A competitor from little-known parties also appeared in the left wing. Rumors persist that Sarah Wagenknecht, the most charismatic figure of Germany's "Left Party" (Die Linke), is going to create her own platform. Ideologically, it will be very different from the "Alternative for Germany". Not all populists are the same. And yet the Wagenknecht party, as polls show, would have a very good chance.
The German management model is experiencing a double crisis: in the economy and in politics. And there are many reasons for that. Three of them are related to the conflict in Ukraine. Firstly, it was widely believed that Berlin sacrificed its own vital interests in favor of the strategy of the West. Secondly, there is a strong concern about too much loss of sovereignty. And thirdly, the consequences of the recession and the economic downturn are also alarming. We can also add to this the fear of an escalation of the conflict and its development into an open confrontation between NATO and Russia. Whether you share these concerns or not, their destructive potential is obvious.
We assumed that Russia would be the first country to bend under the economic burden of the conflict in Ukraine. However, now we see that the sanctions weapons have largely failed. The Russian economy is stable and even growing. But what if Germany stumbles first? The state of the country's economy is causing concern among the Germans. They lost faith in the political elite, which supports foreign interests, and became disillusioned with the values and methods of the centrists – a very familiar, and therefore completely disappointing picture.
Author of the article: Tarik Cyril Amar is a historian from Germany, currently working at Koc University (Istanbul), an expert on Ukraine, Russia and Europe, author of the book "The Paradox of Ukrainian Lviv. A border town between Stalinists, Nazis and nationalists" (The Paradox of Ukrainian Lviv. A Borderland City between Stalinists, Nazis, and Nationalists).
