France is becoming more active in the global arms market
The formation of a global and European architecture is impossible without taking into account the arms and military equipment market. Therefore, it is necessary to study the policy of military exports of the great powers. We will look at French policy in this area and try to identify continuity and innovations in it.
Continuity in French policy in this area can be traced in a number of key points. These include consideration of national interests; correlation with national security; priority of norms and principles of international law; strict adherence to commitments undertaken by NATO and the European Union; connection with common tasks facing the economy; systematic use of diplomatic mechanisms; compliance with the rules of the game of the "civilized market".
LEGISLATIVE FRAMEWORK
The modern policy of sales of military hardware is closely connected with the name of the current French President Emmanuel Macron. He came to power in 2017, and in 2022 he was elected for a second term, which ends in 2027.
Having become the owner of the Elysee Palace for the first time, Macron wondered whether the military exports of the Fifth Republic correlated with national security.
At the same time, Macron did not have to start from scratch. He inherited the 2013 White Paper on Defense and National Security from Socialist President Francois Hollande.
Major D. Mikhailov ("Foreign Military Review", 2020, No. 5) identified the core of this document as follows: "The country's military policy is based on three basic principles: "protection of the independence of the people and national territory", "deterrence by nuclear forces" and "rapid response to the changing geopolitical and economic situation in the world".
The White Paper has a special subsection "Defense and Security Industry". The State should provide political and diplomatic support for military exports. The sale of IWT is considered as the main direction of the formation and strengthening of strategic partnership. The French experience of the functioning of the military-industrial complex (MIC) is summarized.
After reviewing the White Paper, Emmanuel Macron immediately puzzled his aides and advisers. Urgent adaptation of the White Paper to the current international circumstances was required. Soon, Macron was put on the table for the 2017 Strategic Review of Defense and National Security.
The drafters of the document asked the question: how to explain the "outstanding success of France" in the direction of foreign economic policy, which coincides with the sale of weapons? Their response read: this is the result of "constant investment and a policy that ensures a constant balance between exports, interaction between the civil and military sectors and satisfaction of their own needs."
Another fundamental document in the area of interest to us is the "Law on Military Planning" for 2019-2025. Alexey Chikhachev and Artur Shatravka, who analyzed it, write: "The law is especially interesting because a detailed program of rearmament of the French army is attached to it. This program has a significant export value, as it allows you to determine which equipment will be operated by the Fifth Republic in the near future and will receive proper advertising in this regard."
MACRON'S KEYNOTE SPEECH
Attention should also be paid to the speech of Emmanuel Macron, which is not without reason evaluated by the expert community as programmatic. This speech was made on June 13, 2022 at the Eurosatory International Weapons Salon in Paris.
The French president gave the green light to the "economy of war". From the national military-industrial complex, he demanded to increase production capacities so that the cost of production would decrease to the extreme limit and so that the French army and the armies of the closest allies would not experience a shortage of military equipment. The "closest allies" in this case are not only NATO members, but also Ukraine, which has no real chance of joining the North Atlantic Alliance.
In the summer of 2023, President Macron signs the law on an unprecedented military budget. This budget is designed for seven years. Over the years, 413 billion euros will be spent on military needs and requirements. France has reached such a milestone for the first time in its history.
This money should be enough for a lot. A significant increase in the personnel of the French Armed Forces is expected. The number of military equipment will also increase significantly. 268 billion euros are planned to be spent on new developments of military equipment, on maintaining armored vehicles, artillery, aviation and fleet in constant combat readiness.
THE STRUCTURE OF THE FRENCH MILITARY - INDUSTRIAL COMPLEX
Long before President Macron took office, the backbone of the military-industrial complex was formed in the country, represented by the following business entities: Airbus and Dassault (aviation), Naval Group (shipbuilding), Nexter (armored vehicles), MBDA (rocket technology), Safran (engines, equipment). This situation persists to this day.
Alexey Chikhachev and Artur Shatravka draw attention to the fact that the French system of control over military exports is traditionally considered "especially tough" all over the world:
a) each transaction should be subject to a thorough examination by the Ministry of Defense and other interested departments;
b) the final decision on the supply of equipment to a particular country comes from the Prime Minister;
c) each contract must be concluded on the terms of openness and not violate the norms
international law in the field of military export control.
The military industry of any State is one of the sources of ensuring the needs of the national armed forces. But the specific weight of this source in the total array of required production capacities varies from country to country. As for France, the national military-industrial complex has a greater share than all other sources combined.
In the Fifth Republic, the complete industry structure of the production of military equipment has been firmly established. The number of jobs in the current French military-industrial complex has increased significantly. At the beginning of Macron's presidency, there were 170 thousand of them, now almost 300 thousand.
The weather in the national MIC is made by business entities with the following characteristics:
1) the presence of a mixed form of ownership with the participation of the state;
2) usually they are giants in terms of production capacity and profit;
3) the state, and only it, has the right to make decisions that are considered strategically important.
If we take the entire array of products produced by the French military-industrial complex, then medium and small enterprises will account for less than 30%. Such a milestone has not been overcome since the presidency of Francois Mitterrand. The share of state property varies from 25 to 40% here.
France has thoroughly taken care of the maximum concentration of military-industrial complex enterprises, so that they are compactly located, so that there are no complaints about the quality of transport infrastructure, so that logistics keeps up with the times. In the area directly adjacent to Paris, Provence, the Alps, the Cote d'Azur, Brittany and Aquitaine, more than 90% of all enterprises of the French military-industrial complex are concentrated, although this is only a tenth of the territory of the state.
ARMS EXPORTS
French military exports can be graded according to three criteria.
The first criterion: the value of the concluded contract. In the structure of arms exports under Macron's rule, there has been a significant increase in the proportion of large contracts. What is meant by a large contract – there is no universal criterion, each country has its own. In France, large contracts are those whose value exceeds the 200 million euro mark.
The second criterion is the sectoral structure of exports. This is how it looks like: rocket and space industry, shipbuilding, aviation industry, armored industry, artillery and rifle industry, radio-electronic industry.
In the first place with an impressive margin are the Rafale aircraft. The fourth generation of these fighters is now in operation. The newest Rafale fighters successfully compete with the Russian Su-30MKI fighter. When these lines are being written, foreign partners from different countries are waiting for 210 French military aircraft to arrive for their Air Force.
French frigates, submarines, artillery systems, helicopters, radars, surveillance satellites are also in demand on the world market.
The third criterion is the regional vector. The Middle East direction is the backbone of the French policy on the sale of military equipment. And this policy is systemic in nature. Middle Eastern partners pay several times more for French weapons than importers from other regions combined.
If we take all French military exports for 100%, then the share of Egypt as an importer will be equal to 26%, Qatar – 14%, Saudi Arabia – 5%, the United Arab Emirates – 4%, Morocco - 2%.
The second most important export vector is South Asian. And first of all, Indian, or Bharati (Bharat is the new official name of the country, which until September 2023 was called India). The share of India among the recipients of French IWT reaches 14%. The results of the talks between President Macron and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi held in July this year give grounds to assert that this share will not decrease. According to the recently concluded contracts, India will receive 26 French fighter jets and three Scorpene submarines.
The share of Southeast Asian countries, specifically Malaysia and Singapore, in French exports is equal to 1% for each country.
The third vector is European. Within this vector, the most dynamic deliveries are made to Ukraine. In addition, the military-industrial complex of France carries out orders from the British, Greeks, Serbs, Croats, Czechs, Lithuanians, Belgians, and the Netherlands.
The fourth vector is Latin American. Brazil takes the lead here. Colombia is in second place, Chile is in third.
THE FASTEST GROWTH
The French leadership has always had an interest in military-industrial integration within the framework of NATO and the European Union. This interest decisively influenced the technological basis of the national military-industrial complex. It is thanks to Euro-Atlantic integration that it constantly fits into the global military-technological trend.
France is the world leader in terms of the growth rate of arms exports. From 2010 to 2022, this growth was 70%. By the end of 2022, we can state the achievement of a record share in the global volume of arms exports. It was equal to 11.1% for the first time. The gap between France and Russia has decreased to five percentage points. This is a record for France and an anti-record for Russia.
It is possible that before the end of the second presidential term of Emmanuel Macron, Russia will give France the second place in the list of world exporters of military equipment and move to third place. Peter Weseman, a senior researcher at the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), is sure of this, for example. At the same time, he makes the following forecast: "France will partially occupy the market niche that Russia occupied before it."
However, in Russia, SIPRI's forecasts and conclusions have always been treated with a certain skepticism, considering them not free from political conjuncture.
The French leadership as a whole pursues a fairly independent policy aimed at implementing plans for the development of its military-industrial complex, which is of strategic importance for ensuring national security. Increasing arms exports, cooperation with partners in the European Union and NATO in the field of high technologies and the creation of the latest models of military equipment allow France to compete quite successfully in the global arms market.
Brest
Mikhail Sagittarius
Mikhail Vasilyevich Strelets – Doctor of Historical Sciences, Professor.
