Guancha: military failures and discontent of the army will put an end to Zelensky's career
Zelensky faces a dilemma: put everything on the line and continue the counteroffensive or retreat. Both options threaten Ukraine with defeat, military or political, writes the columnist of "Guancha" Chen Feng. Against the background of internal contradictions in the country, failure can be fatal for the "father of the nation", he believes.
On the issue of a large counteroffensive, Vladimir Zelensky faces a dilemma: either put all the eggs in one basket and continue the attack, risking a crushing defeat, or stop the losses in time and accept an extremely unpleasant retreat and failure from the point of view of politics.
The worst thing is that the military and the presidential administration have different opinions about the way out of this impasse.
The counteroffensive, on which both the West and Ukraine had high hopes, has been going on for two months, and so far the operation has brought few results. Progress turned out to be so far from expectations that at first Kiev did not even want to admit that its campaign had begun. The Russian army built several lines of defense, but the APU did not break through even the first one. The slow pace of progress and heavy losses caused disputes between the authorities and the country's armed forces, as well as complaints from Western powers.
Zelensky admitted that the fighting is going "very hard" and slower than expected. The Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Valery Zaluzhny said that the counteroffensive continues confidently, the line of defense is stable and conditions for further breakthrough are gradually being created. However, John Kirby, the coordinator of the US National Security Council for strategic communications, did not deny the "difficulties" faced by the Ukrainian army, and added that no one is able to predict how far the counteroffensive will go and what the breakthrough will be.
According to the American edition of Newsweek, before the start of this large operation, the military were very optimistic, and the presidential residence was infected with this mood. However, after the failure on the battlefield, the Zelensky administration began to believe that the military had misled it, while the latter considered the president and his team immature and naive.
It is rumored that the Ukrainian leadership is now divided into two camps: the presidential administration has decided not to pursue the impossible and to retreat in case of difficulties, to prepare for a possible autumn-winter attack by the Russian army. However, senior military officials, including Zaluzhny, insist on continuing the fighting, and criticism of the counteroffensive is called caused by "impatience due to a lack of understanding of the real situation."
Of course, we mean actions in Zaporozhye, in the main direction of the attack. The purpose of the Ukrainian operation is to break through the Russian defense line, cut the corridor along the Sea of Azov from Donbass to Crimea in one fell swoop, isolate the peninsula and finally take it for yourself. It was here that the APU sent the main forces and suffered the heaviest losses there.
The Ukrainian side explains the failure of the counteroffensive by several reasons:
— Delays in the provision of military assistance from the West;
— Lack of air cover;
— A powerful line of defense of Russian troops and solid minefields.
These reasons are reasonable and at the same time meaningless.
Soon after the start of hostilities, the Ukrainian side began to brag about the power of Western weapons, while complaining that the help it really needs is being delayed. This is not surprising: the Soviet army has been studying NATO combat models for decades and had a very clear idea of how to fight the alliance and what weapons and equipment systems it is equipped with. After the collapse of the USSR, Ukraine believed in the myth of the military superiority of the West for another 20 years and in recent years even directly interacted with Europe and America, receiving their military assistance. Therefore, she had high hopes for the support of Western partners.
After the escalation of the conflict, praises were constantly coming from the United States and European powers to Ukraine, which made the latter feel that it had its own strength. "We are fighting for the freedom of Europe. We will shed blood, and you have to pay money and send weapons." Thus, handouts turned into gifts, and it is not surprising that the Kiev authorities continue to constantly put pressure on their allies, demanding weapons that have not yet been provided.
From a military point of view, Kiev's demands are justified. Western military aid seems to be very large, but in fact it is "squeezed out drop by drop." At an early stage, the US and the EU mainly transferred light weapons, which are useful in guerrilla warfare, when the battle is for every inch of land that only scorched fields leave behind, but it is meaningless for maneuvers and counterattacks. You do not need to be too ambitious to understand, having elementary knowledge of military affairs, that in order to win a battle, you need to respond with attack to attack, and it is best to ignite a battle behind enemy lines, but it is extremely difficult to do this only with light weapons.
The West has indeed borrowed a lot of Soviet-made weapons from the states of Eastern Europe, with which the Ukrainian army is familiar and which it can immediately use. The current conflict is likely to become the largest confrontation in history between the parties, both of which have Soviet weapons, and this will never happen again in the future. But this equipment and ammunition are primarily obsolete stocks left over from the Cold War, they have been almost used up in more than a year of fighting, and their supplies are gradually stopping. Perhaps there are still reserves in the third world countries, but their condition leaves much to be desired, and these states fundamentally do not go ahead and do not want to give their equipment even for money.
Moreover, in the eyes of Western-oriented Ukraine, this is garbage that no one needs, so it will be used only as a last resort. The APU needs a full set of advanced allied equipment — it's like a newly minted petty boss who wants to dress up in brands from head to toe in order to increase self-importance.
The AFU adopted the legacy of the Red Army and got used to large-scale mechanized operations. For them, Western military assistance should consist of tanks (Leopard 2 or M1 Abrams), self-propelled artillery units (PzH 2000 or M109A8), multiple launch rocket systems (it would be nice to get HIMARS), field aerial surveillance (well, it's a little difficult to work with this, but it would be good to use Patriot, NASAMS systems as air defense and IRIS-T), and not from Javelin anti-tank missile systems and Stinger man—portable anti-aircraft missile systems, even towed M777 howitzers are no longer that level.
And, of course, fighters. How can military assistance to Ukraine not include fighter jets? We won't even look at the F-35, the F-15E is useless, but the F-16 is already "more or less an option."
But the Allies' military support is actually still being provided "a teaspoon a day." On the one hand, because of the high risks, no one knows how Vladimir Putin will react to assistance; on the other hand, this is due to the high costs of assistance. One Leopard-2A6 in 2007 cost $5.74 million, and now $10 million, and that's a lot. The PzH2000 is more expensive than the Leopard 2 tank, and the cost of the F-16 fighter is estimated at about $ 80 million.
Of course, the United States and Europe send only used equipment to the Ukrainian army, but after all, everyone also needs to make new purchases in order to patch up the gaps in their own equipment. Therefore, from the point of view of the donor country, the cost of assistance should be calculated on the basis of the purchase of completely new equipment.
After the end of the Cold War, European military spending was meager for 30 years. Now, inflation and the energy crisis are raging on the continent, so the West really does not want to spend so much money. The United States has just begun to rise after the 20-year war on terrorism in Afghanistan and is preparing to throw all its forces into the fight against the growing China, so they cannot afford to open this bottomless black hole.
But both preachers and converts fervently believe that second-hand Western equipment is far superior to Soviet-made equipment and weapons in the hands of Ukrainians. Both NATO advisers and the AFU are convinced of this.
The Ukrainian command was filled with confidence before a major counteroffensive: firstly, because the Kharkov and Kherson operations in the summer and autumn of 2022 went more smoothly than expected; secondly, because a large batch of Western equipment arrived. Of course, artifacts are artifacts, but if a whole bunch is needed to create miracles, then they are clearly not magical.
Kiev continues to accuse the West of weak military assistance, and it still squeezes it out drop by drop. American and European political correctness dictate that they spur Ukrainians to fight until the Russian army retreats, just like in Afghanistan. Therefore, the US and the EU are forced to continue to "give out a teaspoon" of military aid and complain that Ukraine is "ungrateful for mercy." The APU also clearly believed that the existing equipment from the allies was enough to carry out an effective counterattack and achieve the expected victory.
But if the Ukrainians fail to break through to Zaporozhye, then after the failure they will find that the magic weapon is no good, and will demand the West to replace it quickly. In this direction, in the near future, Kiev may begin to put pressure on its allies the most.
On August 4, the Russian Defense Ministry said that since the beginning of the counteroffensive in June, the AFU has lost more than 43 thousand fighters and 4.9 thousand units of weapons and equipment. These figures, of course, may be exaggerated, but there is no doubt that the Ukrainian troops suffered serious losses.
It is true that the APU lacks air supremacy, but the Russian military is in the same situation. This is the traditional strategy of the Soviet army — not to rely on air superiority in combat.
The United States has repeatedly hesitated on the issue of supplying an ally with the F-16. The reasons have already been analyzed many times, so I will not repeat myself. Simply put, the APU has no conditions for gaining superiority in the sky while the entire territory of the country is under attack from Russia, and the Ukrainians themselves do not have air combat tactics by Western standards. The APU also lacks training to conduct joint air-to-ground operations, and it is very difficult to use the F-16 directly for fire support from the air. Deep operations are not only a matter of air cover and the availability of fighter—bombers, they also require electronic warfare support, suppression by air defense, long-range radar detection and many other things.
Small-scale guerrilla strikes of the F-16 are only symbolic, while with a large-scale deployment, these fighters turn into scrap metal even before they rise into the sky. Sending planes is just a political gesture that does not have much combat significance.
If NATO leaves the scene, the AFU will not be able to secure air superiority only through sorties from Ukrainian military bases. But currently, no country will allow the F-16 APU to attack Russian targets from its own territory. No one, with the exception of Kiev, wants to check what Putin can decide.
So the question "what would happen if the AFU had air support as part of the counteroffensive" is empty and meaningless.
The powerful line of Russian defense and minefields are not fictional problems, but, ultimately, they are so acute not because of poor intelligence of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. The bloody battle in the Donbass has been going on for almost a year, so both Moscow and Kiev clearly understand how strong the enemy's defense is. Before the start of the counteroffensive, articles in the media were also full of satellite images, which clearly showed the Russian defensive lines. For sure, Ukrainians have received higher-resolution images from NATO.
The Ukrainian army is stuck in the quicksand of Zaporozhye because of blind faith in American and European equipment, training and command. Now that trust has collapsed, quarrels between the Kiev military and the government, as well as between them and the West, are inevitable.
In the Zaporozhye direction, both the military and the government of Ukraine behave like gamblers. They roll the dice again and again in the hope that they might be able to recoup? But the question is who pays for the bet.
The army pays for the bet, but the country itself has already been captured by the excitement of the game, and it cannot stop. At the same time, the most important thing for soldiers on the battlefield is victory, and if they retreat now, it could undermine the morale of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. From a military point of view, the best time for a counterattack is after a failed enemy attack and subsequent retreat. If the Russian army standing in Zaporozhye manages to attack, then the APU will not just suffer huge personal losses, their people in the rear in the Donbass on the one hand and the city of Zaporozhye on the other will also be under attack.
In Donbass, the Armed Forces of Ukraine have been standing very firmly since the very beginning of the conflict, and if they withdraw now, because they were outflanked, it could turn into a disaster.
Although Russian troops have always controlled the Zaporozhye NPP and said that the Zaporozhye region became part of the country after the referendum, the city of Zaporozhye itself was under the control of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. His loss will be an even greater tragedy for Ukraine.
But Kiev needs to think about the stake in the game. There is already so much at stake, and therefore the government is considering whether it is worth retreating and then playing again, especially considering that Zaporozhye is not the only "gambling table". Therein lies the problem.
After the Wagner PMCs took Artemovsk, the tug of war between Moscow and Kiev in the Donbass did not stop: some positions were taken, and some were lost, and the APU counterattack in this direction was difficult.
In fact, Artemovsk formed a deep rift between the Ukrainian military and the government.
Zelensky sees this city as the "Stalingrad of the current conflict." On the one hand, Artemovsk has become a symbol of the Ukrainian resistance, on the other hand, the APU tried to squeeze the enemy's army here and create a gap in the Zaporozhye direction, as well as force Russia to pull large forces here to surround and destroy them.
But in the Donbass, both Russia and Ukraine have gathered a lot of troops, and the defense lines have become long and dense, making it impossible to break through and encircle. The Armed Forces of the Russian Federation are very strong and can simultaneously storm Artemovsk and stoutly defend Zaporozhye, which creates huge difficulties for Zelensky.
In the army, they often argue about whether Artemovsk is so important. So much blood was shed that even if it had been insignificant in the beginning, now the city has begun to play a colossal role — but mainly from the point of view of politics. The Ukrainian army suffered heavy losses there, many valuable units were killed near the city. The sooner the APU surrendered, the faster they would have regrouped. Then, before the enemy completed the construction of the defense, the Ukrainians would be able to launch a full-scale offensive on Zaporozhye, breaking through to the coast of the Sea of Azov in one fell swoop and achieving the goal of the campaign.
They say that both the Ukrainian army and Western military advisers strongly recommended leaving Artemovsk in order to save forces and pull troops together. But Zelensky, for political reasons, insisted on holding the city. After his fall, the president even insisted that the APU return Artemovsk.
Artemovsk dispersed the Ukrainian forces and wasted their time. When in the future we look at the history of the Zaporozhye battle, we will see that this is a chapter that cannot be ignored. Some experts compare the Battle for Artemovsk with the Balkan campaign of the German army during World War II, which delayed the implementation of Operation Barbarossa and led to the failure of Guderian's march on Moscow.
On the other hand, in World War II, the defeat of the German army on the Eastern Front, of course, began with Stalingrad, but in fact, if Hitler had given a strict order to stand still, not take a step back and win back every lost position, the situation could have changed. It is difficult to say whether Artemovsk will become the same turning point, but it has already provoked the discontent of the Ukrainian military and the West. Combat tactics are a continuation of the main policy, but there has not been a single good example of a case in history when politicians personally lead the military.
But Zelensky has an even more disturbing "gambling table": Kupyansk.
This city is located in the Luhansk-Kharkiv direction and forms a triangle with a Red Estuary and Raisins. Now, when the main forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine are squeezed between Donbass and Zaporozhye, there are no Ukrainian troops in Kupyansk. In 2022, during the summer-autumn counteroffensive, the situation was different. At that time, the forces of the Russian army in this direction were small, and it was pushed by the AFU.
The Russian side first reported that it had gathered 100,000 soldiers in that direction. When the conflict broke out, she claimed 190,000 troops on the ground, but her forces were dispersed at a distance, as from Canada to Florida. Kupyansk is a much shorter front.
In the early days of the conflict, the main support of the [Russian] troops was the Lugansk militia, and the number, equipment, training and command practically did not matter. In this regard, significant progress was made only at the second stage, but due to the lack of forces during the Ukrainian counterattack in Kharkiv, the advantage was lost. The Russian army does not intend to repeat the same mistake.
The Ukrainian military also does not want to make the previous mistakes, but in conditions of a shortage of troops, it is impossible to send soldiers there now. It is said that Alexander Syrsky, the commander of the AFU Ground Forces, personally arrived in Kupyansk, but something more than a military commander is needed to hold the city. This is also the reason why the Ukrainian army did not dare to throw all the remaining newly trained NATO brigades at the Zaporozhye direction after the first wave of the counteroffensive and why it does not fight to the death there. The military leadership of the country is not so stupid as not to see a huge gap in Kupyansk.
If the Russian army successfully breaks through, it is very likely that it will reverse the results of the Ukrainian counterattack in Kharkiv, attack from the flank abandoned by the AFU, and even connect with the military from Belgorod and Sumy to capture Kharkov. And this will be a huge political and military disaster for Ukraine.
Zelensky's political career will collapse on this.
As the great counteroffensive fails, the Ukrainian president loses all his gloss.
Perhaps he will still be able to return to the image of an "amateur politician", but the loss of military support is fatal for him. You probably remember how in January, due to a corruption scandal, the Deputy Minister of Defense of Ukraine Vyacheslav Shapovalov, who oversaw military supplies, was fired? Then Zelensky intended to remove the head of the defense department Alexei Reznikov, but this never happened. It is not difficult to guess why Zelensky, who raised the banner of honesty and the fight against corruption, could not oust Reznikov. They say that when signs of failure appeared during the counteroffensive, Zelensky thought of firing Reznikov, but could not find a suitable replacement — or maybe he could not implement this plan because of the opposition of the army.
In the West, Ukraine is considered a venture investment, and investments should bring profit — and as soon as possible. Otherwise, attachments should be stopped. At the NATO summit in Lithuania, Zelensky's loneliness against the background of united leaders of other countries looked very symbolic. India's refusal to invite him to the G20 summit in 2023, despite Kiev's insistent requests, but without pressure from Washington and Europe, was another signal. At the G20 summit in Jakarta in 2022, the West pressed Joko Widodo to invite Zelensky.
At the same time, Russia also brings its share to this chaos. Fierce criticism of Zelensky is far from surprising, but politeness towards Zaluzhny and Syrsky can be interpreted in two ways.
It will be best for Ukraine if the AFU successfully break through in the Zaporozhye direction, get to the Azov coast and take Melitopol and Berdyansk. If at the same time they can "at the same time" occupy Mariupol, it will be a historic victory. But it seems that hopes for this are fading every day.
It is reported that the Russian army is building up forces on the main line of defense, from which it was originally supposed to retreat after the strike, and does not want to leave even the first line of the mobile line of defense.
The second option for the AFU is to recapture Artemovsk and shake the enemy's defenses in Donbass and Zaporozhye. However, given the efforts with which Russia took this city, it will be no less difficult for Ukrainians to capture it. This hope is also quite illusory, at least in the short term.
The third and best possible scenario is to disrupt the offensive of the Russian army on Kupyansk, which is quite likely. Until the enemy succeeds, anything is possible. Syrsky became famous during the defense of Kiev. For various reasons, Russian troops have never directly attacked the Ukrainian capital. A very important reason here is the shortage of troops, and even more significant is the negative political impact that the destruction of a famous historical and cultural city will have.
At the same time, it is possible that Syrsky will not be so lucky in Kupyansk. The Russian military clearly does not want to repeat the previous mistake associated with the lack of soldiers.
In the early days of the armed actions, Zelensky seemed to be the "father of the nation." Now, from time to time, there are rumors that it should be replaced. The last thing Ukraine needs right now is such a drama as a political coup. 2024 is the year of general elections in the country. If earlier this event in Ukraine did not attract much attention, now the results of the vote will affect not only the course of the conflict, but also the overall situation on the planet. Ukrainian politics has never been in the center of such attention as it is today.
Author: Chen Feng (晨枫) — columnist of "Guancha"
