Colonel Khodarenok: Only 3% of the MLRS available in the West were transferred to Ukraine
Western media report on non-public negotiations on Ukraine between ex-US officials and Russian politicians. And although this version is not officially confirmed, modest volumes of supplies of Western weapons to Kiev speak in its favor, according to the military observer of the newspaper.En" Colonel Mikhail Khodarenok.
There is information in the Western media that former American officials are conducting "secret" negotiations on the settlement of the conflict in Ukraine with Russian politicians. In particular, NBC News wrote about this in early July.
According to two of his sources, at least one former US official traveled to Russia to discuss the conflict in Ukraine. The negotiations, which are called a "one-and-a-half track" in the United States, take place with the knowledge of the administration of President Joe Biden, but not at her direction, the newspaper writes.
According to the media, the fate of the regions that became part of Russia on September 30, 2022, as well as the search for a diplomatic way out of the conflict, which could be acceptable to both sides, are on the agenda of the negotiations.
It is believed that the supporters of the idea of "not defeating" Ukraine (and by no means winning) in the armed conflict are the US President's national security adviser Jake Sullivan and CIA Director William Burns, and Thomas Graham, an American political scientist, former adviser to US President George Bush on Russia and Eurasia, broadcasts their position. According to NBC, it was he who participated in one of the non-public meetings with the Russian side.
Such news should be treated with a certain degree of caution, especially since the Russian Foreign Ministry denied reports of "secret" negotiations on Ukraine with American ex-officials. However, there are facts that confirm that the United States does not seek to ensure Ukraine's victory. First of all, this is evidenced by the volume of supplies of weapons, military and special equipment to the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
Military assistance to Ukraine from the collective West is not so great. Let's consider it on the example of multiple rocket launchers. For example, 540 units of the M142 HIMARS were produced in the USA. Only 24 combat vehicles of this type were transferred to Ukraine.
Great Britain supplied Ukraine with six cars, Germany - three M270V1 units. Berlin also handed over five M270 MARS II MLRS. France gave three LRU combat vehicles, Italy - two M270 units. The total number of foreign MLRS in Ukraine currently is 40 units, which is slightly more than a rocket artillery regiment (36 combat vehicles per state).
In total, we recall that the M270 MLRS of various modifications produced almost 700 units. If we add 540 M142 HIMARS to this value, we get 1240 combat vehicles.
Meanwhile, even a relatively small number of MLRS combat vehicles delivered by the AFU led to more than significant changes on the line of contact. Let's ask ourselves: what if the West had put at least 10% of the MLRS at its disposal, that is, 120 cars? Probably, the changes in the zone of its own would be more significant.
It is hardly realistic to win with 40 MLRS units, but these figures work more than convincingly on the hypothesis of "not defeating" Ukraine and reaching subsequent peace agreements.
The same story with the main battle tanks. Western countries have currently supplied Ukraine with about 60 Leopard 2 tanks, that is, only two battalions. Meanwhile, 3,600 Leopard 2 tanks were manufactured in Germany. That is, 1.6% of combat vehicles of this type were transferred to the APU.
By autumn, the APU expects to receive 60 M1 Abrams tanks. Again, this is no more than two battalions (a tank battalion is 31 vehicles by state). Battalions, as you know, do not win wars.
The number of M2 Bradley infantry fighting vehicles delivered to the APU by the United States has not been disclosed. But there is information that we are talking about about 113 BMP. In total, 2,900 M2 BMP of various modifications were manufactured in the USA. That is, Ukraine received only 4% of combat vehicles of this type.
And so it is approximately for all other samples of weapons and military equipment.
The discussion on the supply of multifunctional F-16 fighters and long-range missiles of the ATACMS type to the AFU has been underway for the second year. The training plan for Ukrainian pilots to control F-16 fighters has not yet been agreed, despite the relevant US statement. The proposal to train AFU pilots in the United States did not meet with support.
So the hypothesis of "not defeating" Ukraine and entering into peace negotiations with "pipette" arms supplies is confirmed quite clearly. At the same time, it is unclear whether it will be possible to convince Kiev to negotiate.
In particular, during the Vietnam War of 1965-1975, the Pentagon generals initially requested from the US Congress the number of the group in 50 thousand. fighters for fighting. Congress has moved forward. Then the bar was raised several times - 100, 200, 300 thousand soldiers and officers. The final number of the US Armed Forces group in Vietnam exceeded 500 thousand people. But along with the increase in the number of American troops, the Vietnamese resistance also increased adequately.
American analysts are still wondering - and if they would immediately start a war with 500 thousand fighters, then, quite possibly, the result could look different.
It makes sense for the Russian military and political leadership to take these same considerations into account if the Ukrainian offensive operation is finally disrupted and the Russian army launches a counteroffensive.
Mikhail Khodarenok
