How the Ukrainian crisis affects the most stable country in North Africa
The People's Democratic Republic of Algeria is not directly involved in the Russian-Ukrainian conflict. But its consequences for this North African country are significant on many levels. The most important factor to consider is the ambiguous impact that Russia's special military operation in Ukraine may have on the domestic political and economic dynamics in Algeria.
EXPENSIVE, BUT NOT ENOUGH
On the one hand, the unfolding crisis, which has taken on a global character, has pushed world prices for hydrocarbons to a level not seen since the beginning of the 2010s. Algeria is benefiting significantly from this trend. The years of declining oil prices that preceded this upswing, combined with the country's internal problems, reduced Algeria's ability to use public resources to reduce social tensions.
But while rising commodity prices increase revenues from the volumes of oil and gas that the country is able to sell in the short term, Algeria has limited reserve energy capacity to extract enough benefits from the current situation.
The country really planned to increase oil production to about 1 million barrels. per day in April in accordance with the decision of OPEC+. However, years of mismanagement, management problems, legal issues and strict contractual conditions have not yet allowed Algeria to steadily increase production volumes. Moreover, even if the national oil company Sonatrach manages to solve all its problems, the country will take years to tap most of its potential. The growth of domestic consumption reduces the share of hydrocarbons exported. And this means that in the short term Algeria will not be able to significantly increase production and maximize the current global situation in its favor.
OIL AND GAS DIPLOMACY
As the Russian special operation continues, Algeria is facing a kind of diplomatic paradox.
The country abstained from voting at the UN General Assembly, without openly condemning Moscow's actions. In general, Algeria remained neutral regarding the conflict, which both corresponds to the country's historical approach to global politics and reflects the close political, economic and military ties that exist between Algeria and Russia.
European countries have so far avoided putting too much pressure on Algeria due to the lack of such condemnation and are unlikely to do so in the foreseeable future. On the contrary, after the start of the Russian special operation, Italian Foreign Minister Luigi Di Maio visited Algeria together with Claudio de Scalzi, CEO of Ente Nazionale Idrocarburi (ENI), an Italian oil company and a major player in the global energy market. On behalf of the European Union, they sought to negotiate an increase in the supply of Algerian oil and gas to Europe in order to partially compensate for the reduction in imports from Russia. This was a clear indication of the increasing attention of Europeans to Algeria.
Algeria can use the current diplomatic situation in much the same way as it has done in other cases. For example, in the early 2000s, after the events of September 11 in the United States, Algeria turned from an international outcast into a reliable ally of Americans and Europeans in the fight against terrorism.
Today Algeria can sell its potential energy capacity in order to partially reduce Europe's dependence on Russia in exchange for political and diplomatic freedom of action. In other words, Algeria will be able to avoid persecution due to its proximity to Russia, as well as reduce pressure from European countries against the backdrop of growing internal protests and general social discontent.
Thus, the main paradox is that, despite close ties with Russia, Algeria is likely to be able to avoid diplomatic and political isolation. Especially from European countries, as they are in dire need of alternative Russian energy sources.
FOOD ISSUE
However, there is a third element in this chain that significantly worries Algeria and is also related to the current crisis in Ukraine. Namely, the issue of food security and, in particular, food prices. This is a common problem for many African and Middle Eastern countries, although Algeria is not in such a difficult situation as other States in the region. Nevertheless, Algeria is the second largest wheat consumer in Africa and the fifth largest grain importer in the world.
Historically, Algeria's main partner in the food market is France, but the authorities of the North African country have repeatedly discussed the diversification of export sources and considered Russia as a potential alternative. At the same time, it should be remembered that Algerian history is full of examples of social and domestic political crises caused by rising bread prices.
The most memorable are the riots in October 1988, which became the main cause and trigger of the civil war of the 1990s.
Thus, negative developments in the food market may negate the positive impact of income growth on strengthening public sentiment and force the authorities to allocate even more resources to strengthen social stability within the country. Roughly speaking, oil and gas revenues will have to be eaten away, and not turned to development and other urgent needs.
Oddly enough, against this background, a recent video released by the AXIME group (Al-Qaeda in the Arab Maghreb, banned in the Russian Federation) demonstrates that this group has become perceived in Algerian society as a completely marginal formation that failed attempts to recruit even a small part of the protesters.
MILITARY COOPERATION
Two countries in the Middle East and North Africa region have consistently remained the closest allies of the Soviet Union – Syria and Algeria. And the Russian Federation, surprisingly enough, managed to "inherit" both of these allies, at least in terms of military-technical cooperation.
However, the very existence of Syria now largely depends on Russia.
Algeria has a slightly different situation. In fact, it turned out to be almost the only Arab republic that was able to completely avoid the chain of catastrophes of the Arab Spring of 2011-2012. Therefore, in political terms, Algeria's orientation towards Moscow is not, as with the current Damascus, unambiguous and absolute.
But in terms of arms purchases, a client like Algeria is of considerable interest to the Russian defense industry. This is also greatly facilitated by the presence of Algeria's significant oil and gas reserves.
As for Russia, Algeria has confidently entered the top five major buyers of its weapons. Algeria has acquired from Moscow a wide range of the most modern equipment, and in very significant quantities.
At first, Algeria bought used aircraft from Russia – 25 Su-24 bombers, six MiG-29 fighters, six Il-78 tankers. Later, all Algerian BMP-1s were upgraded to the BMP-2 level by installing the Berezhok combat module. Also, all frigates of 1159 Ave. and small missile ships (MRCS) of 1234 Ave. were modernized (in particular, anti-ship missiles X-35 "Uranus" were installed on them).
Since the mid-noughties, Algeria has bought from Russia 12 Iskander tactical missile systems and at least 75 missiles for them, more than 500 T-90S tanks, 120 Terminator tank support vehicles (BMPT) (on the T-72 chassis), four jet systems multiple launch rocket (MLRS) TOS-1A, 11 self-propelled anti-tank missile systems (ATGM) "Kornet" on armored vehicles "Tiger", three regiments (eight divisions) of anti-aircraft missile systems (SAM) S-300PMU2, at least one division of SAM "Buk-M2", 38 anti-aircraft missile and gun systems (ZRPC) "Pantsir-C1". Negotiations were also held on the supply of S-300VM "Antey-2500" and S-400 "Triumph" long-range air defense systems.
In the same period (2008-2017), Russia delivered 52 Su-30 fighter-bombers, 16 Yak-130 training aircraft, up to 42 Mi-28N attack helicopters and 14 Mi-26 heavy transport helicopters, four 636 pr submarines, a significant number of missiles for various purposes and naval weapons to Algeria.
Algeria refused the MiG-29SMT fighters ordered earlier (after which they were adopted by the Russian Air Force itself), which caused a small Russian-Algerian scandal. Which, however, was quickly extinguished by the acquisition of the Su-30.
There are persistent rumors about Algeria's purchases of Su-34 bombers from Russia and even 5th-generation fighters (either Su-57 or Su-75).
MULTILATERAL PARTNERSHIP
It seems possible to consider factors that will positively affect the development of Russian-Algerian military-technical cooperation in the near future:
1. Algeria is a time–tested partner of Russia, which is not subject to political conjuncture; at the same time, the countries are not friends "against someone". Algeria is committed to active cooperation with Moscow in both bilateral and multilateral formats.
2. Algeria has expressed a desire to join the BRICS integration format. As it became known, Russia will support this intention and will contribute to it in every possible way.
3. Please note that Russian-Algerian relations are important for the stability of the gas market. The countries successfully cooperate in the formats of OPEC+ and the Forum of gas exporting states.
4. Algeria was the first State in the Arab world with which Russia signed a Declaration on Strategic Partnership in 2001. An updated document will be prepared in the near future.
5. Algeria positively assesses the patience of the Russians and the economic policy of the Russian authorities in the fight against unfair Western sanctions.
In conclusion, we note that fruitful military-technical cooperation continues between the two countries.
So, on June 27, 2023, Algeria received Russian-made Tor-M2K short-range anti-aircraft missile systems. This is reported by Armyrecognition.com with reference to a photo posted on the Twitter account "kimo dial" with the construction of equipment before the start of military exercises of the Armed Forces of Algeria. The number of delivered sams is not called.
"Tor-M2K" is an export version of the domestic air defense system "Tor–M2" with a combat vehicle on the Belarusian high-terrain wheeled chassis MZKT-6922 with a 6x6 wheel formula developed by JSC "Minsk Wheel Tractor Plant". The combat assets of the complex include: the 9A331MK combat vehicle, two 9M334 anti-aircraft missile modules with eight 9M331 anti-aircraft missiles controlled via four channels.
It can be confidently assumed that the military-technical aspect of relations between Algeria and Russia will be further developed.
Vasily Ivanov
Vasily Ivanovich Ivanov is a journalist.
