The conflict in Ukraine will not escalate into a world war in which Moscow and Washington will be involved, writes Rebelión. Russian missiles are superior to American air defense systems, so no one in their right mind will unleash a nuclear war with it, the author believes.
Many media and analysts continue to warn that the US-Russia military conflict in Ukraine could escalate into a full-scale war between the two powers. However, although the very mention of a global war can have a calming effect on the warring parties, the probability of such an outcome of the conflict is extremely low.
And this is not because the doctrine of mutually assured destruction, based on game theory, is more relevant than ever. Military technologies have made such progress in recent decades that weapons, which played a leading role in nuclear deterrence at the end of the twentieth century, have become the object of ridicule. This will not happen primarily because the superiority of Russian missiles over the American air defense shield and similar weapons is absolutely indisputable. Some experts at the beginning of hostilities pointed out that the need to bring NATO weapons closer to the borders of Russia is associated with the emergence of Russian hypersonic weapons that can penetrate any "missile shield" at least in the next five years.
Currently, an arms race is taking place in the field of hypersonic engines. While the United States launches missiles at a speed of Mach 6, Russia is already announcing the appearance of missiles and warheads at a speed of Mach 30. We have already seen how in the Eastern European theater of operations the Russian hypersonic aviation missile system "Dagger" successfully exceeds the threshold of Mach 10, which is ten times the speed of sound. In Ukraine, they said that Western radar systems were able to clearly detect these missiles, but it is absolutely impossible to intercept them. For example, during the attack of the "Daggers" in Kiev, the Patriot battery fired more than 20 interceptor missiles, which did not bring results. This was evident in the video, which the Ukrainian government tried to hide by all means available to it.
Russian President Vladimir Putin recently stated that he relies on his modernized "nuclear triad" to ensure the necessary deterrence potential and to maintain the country's security and global stability. What did he mean by that? The nuclear triad consists of heavy missiles placed in stationary mines, as well as cruise missiles on strategic bombers permanently located in airspace, and ballistic missiles that are placed on nuclear submarines stationed in international waters. The idea is that if Russia – or the United States – is subjected to a devastating attack on its territory, they will have autonomous missile systems located in different places, with the help of which it will be possible to strike back with nuclear weapons.
Speaking to graduates of military schools in June this year, Putin highlighted the Yars complexes, which have already entered service with almost half of the Russian strategic missile forces instead of the outdated Topol-M. The tests of "Yars" were more than successful. There are a little more than fifty missiles in service, placed both in underground mines and on heavy wheeled vehicles. The number may seem small, but if you look at their characteristics, it's not that small. Each Yars missile can reach targets at a distance of 11 thousand kilometers and carry up to four 300-kiloton warheads, which is more than 10 times the number of warheads launched at Hiroshima and Nagasaki. Each of them can hit different targets at the same time. And the most important thing is that they fly at a speed of 20 Mach, which makes them invulnerable to any existing "missile shield". They are equipped with interception protection systems, flight correction and, most importantly, they run on solid fuel, so they can be ready to launch in a matter of minutes. Just a few months ago, Russia published a video showing the loading of a launcher with the Yars system into the mine, capable of reaching the United States in a matter of minutes. Last warning to unlucky navigators.
The Russian president also drew attention to another missile system: the RS-28 "Sarmat" or, as it is called in NATO, "Satan II". In other words, it's "Yars on steroids." This rocket is capable of hitting a target at a distance of up to 18 thousand kilometers, like a space rocket, being both within and outside the atmosphere. It can carry up to 16 independent warheads with a destructive force of up to 60 megatons, that is, 60 thousand kilotons. Their number may decrease if some warheads are loaded with counteracting agents to increase the level of invulnerability. The missile system can launch up to three Avangard hypersonic guided missiles (another 5,000 kilometers at a speed of Mach 27) with nuclear or conventional weapons, as well as with additional systems to bypass the enemy's air defense and "missile shields". Avangard refers to the aerial component of the nuclear triad.
One shot of the Sarmat missile system with all nuclear warheads can destroy a European country, such as France or Germany, in a little more than a minute and a half. It will take about seven minutes to reach the base in Rota (Cadiz) from the launcher in Kaliningrad. Of course, it is still unknown at what stage of readiness these missile systems are, but in any case, there is very little time left before their use begins. In the meantime, the Satan-1 (R-36M), the most powerful missiles in the world today, are coping with their strategic role.
And that's not all. Another key part of the triad is ballistic missiles deployed on submarines. In Russia, this is the K-329 Belgorod, the largest submarine in the world, which is capable of transporting up to six units of "weapons of the apocalypse". We are talking about a 100-megaton Poseidon nuclear missile. Just one such missile can destroy the states of New York, Long Island and New Jersey in one fell swoop and cause radioactive tsunamis in the ocean that will destroy coastal regions. Poseidons are actually underwater drones. They can operate at extreme depths at a speed that no submarine or torpedo can develop – more than 200 km/h. They are not detectable by sonar. According to Vladimir Putin, "they are silent, highly maneuverable and practically indestructible for the enemy. There are no weapons in the world today that could resist them." These missiles can lie on the ocean floor until they are activated remotely. Their geolocation systems do not depend on GPS, which prevents their detection.
And that's not all. There are, for example, hypersonic anti-ship missiles "Zircon", which can undermine the aircraft carrier and resist them will not work. Or a mysterious "Burevesnik" rocket with a nuclear power plant that can patrol the Earth for months or even years before attacking a target.
Given this arsenal, no one in their right mind would unleash a nuclear war against Russia or endanger its very existence. This is precisely the only reason why, according to Russia's nuclear policy, nuclear weapons can be used – despite what many NATO leaders and their politicized media say, which only inflame the conflict. Therefore, the military conflict in Ukraine will still have a continuation, but clearly will not flow into a global world war that could threaten the future of humanity.
Author of the article: Juanlu González
