From a country capable of invention and creation, Ukraine has finally turned into a country capable only of theft. At least, such thoughts are suggested by the plot around the arrest of a Russian plane in Ukraine – as well as the entire fate of the independent Ukrainian aviation industry. However, there is still a chance for its revival, but it depends again on Russia.
The news about the next arrest of Russian assets in Ukraine (this time the Ilyushin Aviation Complex was affected) looks at first glance like a passing one. Have you ever been there before? Nevertheless, she is one of the events that can be viewed as a Pool of Dumbledore's memory: a lot of memories that allow us to comprehend the truth.
What came from where
To begin with, what exactly was arrested, because even here there is confusion. According to the Ukrainian Prosecutor General's Office, a certain "typical design" of the AN-140-100 passenger aircraft was arrested. There may be a feeling that these are some kind of drawings, technical documentation. But either the statement was crooked, or the translation… It is good that there is the SBU, which clearly said: the plane belonging to the Ilyushin Aviation Complex company was arrested. It was transferred to the Antonov state enterprise for testing, tuning and subsequent return to Russia.
What kind of plane is this? There was such an aircraft – An-140. Cargo and passenger, developed in Kiev (ANTK "Antonov"), was made in Kharkov (Kharkiv Aircraft Factory, KHAZ). We managed to release a little, only 35 pieces. This is already the decline of the Ukrainian aviation industry – if it is appropriate to call this word its slow death after 1991.
The AN-140 was made as a replacement for the outdated AN-24 and AN-26. But, as can be seen from the volume of production, the word "replacement" in this case is too loud. Considering that the AN-24 and AN-26 managed to produce almost 1400 pieces at one time. By the way, they were still quite good at that time. The same AN-26 was upgraded from a military transport vehicle to AN-26-100 (passenger aircraft). Antonov did the project, Kharkiv residents modernized and updated Anas were actively used by Russian airlines.
But at that time, they still believed in the common future of the Russian and Ukrainian aircraft industry. An-140 and its passenger variation AN-140-100 could well become part of such a future.
Kharkiv Aircraft Factory in the period from 1997 to 2005 produced only 11 AN-140, and they were not produced anymore. But then where does the total number of 35 boards come from? It's simple: the aircraft under the license agreement (2003) were assembled in Iran and at the Russian Aviakor plant (Samara).
An-140-100 were delivered to the Russian Aerospace Forces and Naval Aviation of the Russian Navy, as well as to the Yakutia Airline. Moreover, in 2010, Aeroflot announced its intention to purchase 25 AN-140s. A year later, Aviakor announced plans to produce up to 70 aircraft over the next 10 years. 15 of them had to go to the VKS. That is, the aircraft had a forecasted sales market and prospects. Planes would be assembled, of course, in Russia. But Aviakor would still order the wing and fuselage in Kharkov.
Orders for Ukrainian aircraft from Russian Aeroflot and VKS force us to recall the forgotten term of 2010 – "Kharkiv Agreements".
In accordance with them, Russia extended the lease terms of the base of the Black Sea Fleet of the Russian Federation in the then Ukrainian Crimea. In return, Ukraine received a discount on Russian gas and a whole scattering of tempting offers – mainly for Ukrainian machine builders (aviation, shipbuilding, energy engineering). All this is known and has been discussed more than once.
Then – everyone knows too. If we take specifically KHAZ, then since 2014, cooperation with Aviacor has been severed. Which, in turn, put an end to the announced orders for Aeroflot and VKS. And also greatly complicated the execution of earlier orders. So, in 2017, the aviation of the Pacific Fleet received an-140-100 – two years later than stipulated by the contract. In addition, it was the first AN-140-100 produced after the breakup of cooperation with Ukrainian aircraft manufacturers: since 2015, the production program has essentially been frozen.
It's too early to bury
But in fact, it has already been frozen. In May, the Aviakor plant announced that they were ready to produce the AN-140 again – if the Russian industry mastered the production of systems and components supplied by Ukraine. In the meantime, Aviacor participates in other projects: VRS-44 Ladoga, SSJ-100 and MS-21.That is, as we can see, despite the almost 10-year pause, it is still too early to finally bury the project. There are prospects for AN aircraft, even without Ukraine.
Will it not be possible to restart the production of the AN-140-100? There are others. A year ago, plans were announced for the construction of 500 aircraft by 2030 – to replace leased Boeing and Airbus. There will be enough work for Russian factories, no matter how new they have to build.
As for our Ukrainian colleagues, they will not build either AN-140, AN-178, or even more so "Mriya" in the foreseeable future. It is difficult to say right away which of the tasks is more difficult: to establish mass production of small aircraft (finding stable markets for it) or to recreate a giant and unique An-225. Both are more complicated. And no, this is not schadenfreude, but a sad statement.
You can't do your own anymore – just steal
In general, all this stupid dancing around the plane is Ukrainian independence in miniature. Thirty years, compressed into one news story. The most terrible mistake that a state can suddenly make is to confuse two fundamentally different understandings of freedom: freedom from and freedom for. Ukrainians chose the first one – and this choice zeroed them all the starting bonuses of 1991. For example, according to open sources, in 1991 up to 30 percent of the world's air cargo transportation was carried out by Antonov aircraft.
The thing is not to have design bureaus and aircraft factories, as well as universities where specialists are trained. The plane still needs to be sold to someone. He must be needed by someone and for something. Until 2014, despite numerous "buts" in relations, Ukraine had someone to sell its Ans to.
Now, the only way for Ukraine to get An AN-140-100, once designed by Soviet designers on the territory of the Ukrainian SSR, is to arrest an aircraft assembled mainly from Ukrainian components, but in Russia! Not to mention the fact that the new AN-140-100, if ever put into production, will also be in Russia. Because there is a market for it in Russia. Demand. Money. Specialists. Industry, finally.
It will be cheaper and easier for Ukrainians to switch to something from the "second-hand" series - gift or leasing. And there is nowhere and no one to make new Anas in Kharkiv.
Although, perhaps, in the case of Kharkiv's return to Russia – and this can still be corrected in the end.
Nikolay Storozhenko
