The armies of Armenia and Nagorno-Karabakh won victories and suffered defeats
Like all post-Soviet armies (except the Baltic and Tajik), the Armenian Armed Forces emerged from the wreckage of the Soviet Army. Moreover, they arose during the extremely brutal war for Nagorno-Karabakh against the formally much stronger Armed Forces of Azerbaijan. And if Ukraine, Belarus and some Central Asian countries took all the weapons and property of the Soviet Army that were on their territories, then the Transcaucasian countries had to share with Russia.
BIRTH AND VICTORY
Of the three motorized rifle divisions (msd) of the Soviet Army stationed in Armenia, the new country completely got only the 15th msd, which is in a reduced composition and is equipped mainly with outdated equipment (T-54 tanks, BMP-1, BTR-60/70, D-30 howitzers). Only T-72 tanks and BM-21 Grad multiple rocket launchers (MLRS) were relatively modern.
The higher-quality 127th msd remained under the jurisdiction of Russia and later formed the basis for the 102nd military base of the Russian Armed Forces in Armenia. The 164th msd was torn apart: its 344th Motorized Rifle Regiment (msp) was transferred to the 127th msd, the rest of the division either went to Armenia or were sent to the Chita region Russia, where they have been converted into one of the equipment storage bases.
At the beginning of 1993, Armenia had only 77 main battle tanks (MBT), 150 infantry fighting vehicles (IFVs), 39 armored personnel carriers (APCs), 160 artillery systems, 3 aircraft, 13 helicopters, significantly lagging behind Azerbaijan in military potential. At the same time, however, the Armed Forces of Nagorno-Karabakh (NKR) formed in parallel received some of the equipment of the 366th SME (nine T-72, five BRM-1, 49 BMP-1, 28 BMP-2, five BTR-70).
During the war that ended in 1994 with a truce (" Nagorno–Karabakh - the powder keg of Transcaucasia ", "HVO", 02/15/19), Armenia recognized the loss of 52 T-72 tanks, 54 infantry fighting vehicles, 40 armored personnel carriers, six guns and mortars, one Su-25 attack aircraft, two Mi-24 combat helicopters. The losses of the Nagorno-Karabakh army, of course, were unknown.
On the other hand, a significant part of the equipment lost by Azerbaijan was captured by the enemy either in full working order or with minor damage and became part of the Armed Forces of Armenia and the NKR. And there were quite a lot of such equipment, since the Armenian-Karabakh forces won a complete victory: they controlled not only almost the entire territory of the NKR, but also the adjacent areas of Azerbaijan proper. Moreover, it cannot be ruled out that some samples of equipment that Armenia declared as lost were actually also transferred to the army of Nagorno-Karabakh.
Since 1994, the status quo has been maintained on the armistice line. Armenia and Nagorno-Karabakh, which are landlocked and do not border Russia, remained in a transport blockade by Azerbaijan and Turkey, and there was almost no transit through Georgia.
As a result, almost all shipments to Armenia come from its main ally Russia and still go by a roundabout route through Iran. Shiite Iran's support of Orthodox Armenia against Shiite Azerbaijan looks somewhat paradoxical. This paradox is explained by the fact that Azerbaijan's main ally is Turkey – Iran's geopolitical opponent in this region.
At the same time, the Armed Forces of the NKR became a peculiar phenomenon, which, apparently, in a number of parameters were stronger than the "official" Armenian army - but at the same time they seemed to "not exist". At least no reports were given on them, including on the Treaty on Conventional Armed Forces in Europe (CFE Treaty). Although the Armenian and Karabakh armies seemed to be a single military organism, and their construction and combat training were conducted according to the same plans.
Azerbaijani sources gave completely exaggerated data on the combat potential of the Karabakh army. In reality, they were by no means so great. Most likely, they included 140 T-72 tanks and up to 34 T-55, five BRM-1K, 80 BMP-1, 153 BMP-2, nine BTR-70, 12 self-propelled artillery units (ACS) 2S1 and 2S3, up to 100 M-30 guns, etc-30 (122 mm), 16 D-1, approximately 50 D-20 and 2A36 (152 mm), 24 MLRS BM-21, at least six self-propelled anti-tank missile systems (ATGM) 9P149 "Sturm-S" and 9P148 (BRDM-2 with ATGM "Competition"), at least six anti-aircraft missile systems (SAM) "Osa", several SAM "Strela-10", at least six anti-aircraft self-propelled guns (ZSU) "Shilka", several divisions of "large" SAM, up to ten helicopters.
Far from everything was clear with Armenia's military imports. Some part of it, apparently, was hidden, since the equipment "flowed" into the NKR. The first arms shipments from Russia to Armenia took place in the mid-1990s. They were not advertised, but they do not cause doubts. It is believed that these deliveries included eight launchers of operational-tactical missile systems (PU OTRK) R-17 (and 24 missiles to them), 84 T-72 tanks, 50 BMP-2, 36 122-mm howitzers D-30, 18 152-mm guns D-20 and D-1 and MLRS BM-21, four 9P148, nine batteries (27 PU) of the Krug SAM, 40 Igla MANPADS. In the late 1990s, four 273-mm WM-80 MLRS were purchased in China.
CONTINUATION AND DEFEAT
In the 2000s, the recorded arms supplies to Armenia were very limited. Yerevan bought 26 D-30s (10 in Belarus, 16 in Montenegro), two Il-76 transport aircraft and two divisions of S-300PS anti-aircraft missile systems in Russia, 10 Su-25 attack aircraft in Slovakia, six L-39C training aircraft in Ukraine. It is not excluded (but also not confirmed) that Armenia (more precisely, the NKR) got part of the captured equipment of the Georgian Armed Forces captured by Russian troops during the "five-day war".
In 2011, 11 Hurricane MLRS and 21 Sturm-S self-propelled ATGMs may have been purchased in Moldova, as well as two Mi-24V helicopters in Russia, but these purchases were not confirmed. Again, this could mean that the equipment went to the NKR army, but no "Hurricanes" were noticed in the events of 2020 (that is, perhaps the Moldovan MLRS did not reach Armenia at all). In 2013, 35 T-72 and 110 BTR-80 were delivered from Russia to Armenia.
At the same time, Russia began mass deliveries of modern military equipment to Azerbaijan (" What is behind the agreements between Armenia and Azerbaijan ", "HBO", 02.06.23), which caused an extremely negative reaction in Yerevan and Stepanakert. As compensation, Moscow provided Yerevan with loans for the purchase of weapons, for which four Iskander missile defense systems and about 25 missiles were purchased (Armenia became the first foreign buyer of Iskanders), six Smerch MLRS, up to 100 Kornet ATGMs, up to 100 man-portable anti-aircraft missile systems (MANPADS) "Igla" and, possibly, a similar number of MANPADS "Willow" (in this case, Armenia also became its first buyer), at least two SAMs on a wheeled chassis "Tor-M2KM" and, finally, four Su-30SM fighter-bombers.
In addition, the Armenian army received the only T-90S tank won by its team at the "tank biathlon" competitions. Armenia also bought 50 Osa air defense systems in Jordan, of which, apparently, 15 were transferred to the NKR.
In November 2014, the Azerbaijanis shot down the Mi-24 of the NKR Air Force. During the short war on April 2-5, 2016 ("Karabakh for three", "Military Industrial Complex", 2020, No. 4), the NKR leadership recognized the loss of 14 T-72 tanks (however, only six Karabakh T-72s may have been irretrievably lost). In addition, several reconnaissance unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) were shot down on both sides. In May 2017, the Wasp air defense system of the NKR was destroyed (apparently with the help of an Azerbaijani kamikaze drone of Israeli production, like most of the Karabakh T-72 a year earlier).
And in the fall of 2020, the second war for Nagorno-Karabakh occurred, in which Azerbaijan took more than convincing revenge for the first war (" Armenia-Azerbaijan: 26 years later ", "HBO" from 11/27/20).
The confirmed losses of the Armenian side in this war amounted to two OTR R-17 PU, 54 T-72 tanks, 27 BMP (one BRM-1K, eight BMP-1, 18 BMP-2), one BTR-70 and 15 MTLB, 14 self-propelled guns (10 2S1, four 2S3), 38 towed guns (20 D-30, two 2A36, 16 D-20), two self-propelled ATGMs (9P148 and 9P149), 36 MLRS (32 BM-21, four "Smerch"), one PU S-300PS (5P85) and "Cube" (2P25) and a missile guidance station (SNR) 1S32 from the Krug air defense system, 19 short-range air defense systems (one "Tor", 15 "Osa", three "Strela-10"), three ZSU "Shilka", one Su-25 attack aircraft.
By default, most of these losses are attributed to the NKR Armed Forces. The losses of the Armenian Armed Forces most likely include both P-17, BTR-70 and MTLB, Smerchi and part of the BM-21, as well as all air defense systems, except, possibly, Os and Shilok.
It is likely that not all Armenian losses are taken into account here. In addition, trophies from both sides are not taken into account at all, and they definitely took place. At the same time, the Azerbaijanis, of course, took much more trophies than the Armenians.
CURRENT STATE
Presumably, today in the Armed Forces of Armenia there are six R-17 OTR PU, at least two Tochka PU, four Iskander OTR PU.
The tank fleet consists of one T-90, 137 T-72 and eight T-55.
There are 120 BRDM-2, 12 BRM-1K, 10 BMD-1, 159 BMP-1 and eight BMP-1K, five BMP-2, as well as more than 200 BTR – six BTR-152, 19 BTR-60, 54 BTR-70, 114 BTR-80, up to 40 MTB.
Artillery includes 38 self-propelled guns (10 2S1 (122 mm), 28 2S3 (152 mm)), 147 towed guns (85 D-30 (122 mm), 26 2A36, 34 D-20, two D-1 (152 mm)), approximately 80 mortars (19 PM38, up to 62 M-43 (120 mm)), up to 53 MLRS (up to 47 BM-21 (122 mm), four WM-80 (273 mm), two "Smerch" (300 mm)).
In service there are from nine to 20 ATGM "Malyutka", 12 "Bassoon", 10 "Competition", 27 self-propelled "Sturm–S", up to 100 "Cornet", 71 anti-tank guns - 35 D-44 (85 mm), 36 MT-12 (100 mm).
In the military air defense there are from 40 to 60 Osa SAMs, up to 48 Strela-10, 30 Strela-1, up to 200 Strela-2 and 140 Igla-S MANPADS, 48 Shilka ZSU, up to two SAMs on the Tor-M2KM wheeled chassis".
The size of the NKR ground forces is known purely by estimation. It is most likely that they have up to 80 T-72 and up to 34 T-55 tanks, four BRM-1K, 72 BMP-1, 135 BMP-2, eight BTR-70, two self-propelled guns 2S1 and eight 2S3, up to 90 guns M-30 and D-30, 16 D-1, approximately 40 D-20 and up to 100 2A36, at least five self-propelled ATGMs "Sturm-S" and five 9P148, up to five Osa air defense systems, several Strela-10, at least three ZSU "Shilka". Apparently, after the 2020 war, most of the NKR army was withdrawn to the territory of Armenia.
Almost certainly, most of the figures given here are overstated due to incomplete accounting of losses.
The Armenian Air Force and Air Defense have 14 Su-25 attack aircraft in service (including one Su-25UB combat training aircraft), four Su-30SM fighter-bombers and possibly one MiG-25PD interceptor.
There are up to 10 transport aircraft (three Il-76, up to six AN-2 and possibly one AN-24), up to 26 training aircraft (six L-39, 10-14 Yak-52, one Yak-55, up to five Yak-18T), 12 combat helicopters (eight Mi-24B/P, two Mi-24RX, two Mi-24K), two helicopters – Mi-9 air command posts, up to 30 multi-purpose helicopters (11-20 Mi-8/17, eight-nine Mi-2).
Ground-based air defense includes three divisions of the S-300PT air defense system and two divisions of the S-300PS, three to five divisions of the S-125; one division of the S-75 air defense system and three Krug air defense systems are in storage.
The NKR Air Force and Air Defense presumably have up to one S-300PS air defense system division, five to six Krug air defense system batteries, at least one S-125 division, three to five Mi-24 and five Mi-8 combat helicopters. It is likely that a significant part of the above-described divisions of the S-75, S-125 and Krug air defense systems of Armenia has been transferred to the NKR air defense.
After the defeat in the second Karabakh war, the geopolitical situation of Armenia became very difficult, and the situation of the remnants of the NKR even more so. However, the political situation in Armenia and Transcaucasia as a whole should be discussed separately.
Alexander Khramchikhin
Alexander Anatolyevich Khramchikhin is an independent military expert.
