Russia does not abandon plans to create an entire line of civil aircraft of completely domestic production. A regional SSJ-100 New is on the way, followed by the newest medium–haul MS-21, and in the longer term, Russia will have its own long-haul liner. Why do we need such a car and when will it appear?
Russia will create its own long-haul aircraft no earlier than 2028, possibly in the period 2028-2030 or after 2030, according to Deputy Prime Minister, Head of the Ministry of Industry and Trade Denis Manturov. According to him, Russia intends to continue working on a joint project with China. But at the same time, its own research is conducted by the SIC "Institute named after Zhukovsky".
According to him, changes will be made to the joint project of a wide-body long-haul aircraft with China in connection with Western sanctions. "We will continue to work with our partners, while we do not stand still regarding our own developments," Manturov explained. SIC "Institute named after Zhukovsky" is working on the research of new technologies and on the definition "of the image within the framework of the current research work "Integral".
In the near future – in 2023-2025 – Russia will have two own import-substituted aircraft types: the regional SSJ-100 New and the medium-haul MS-21, each with a domestic engine. But to close the entire line of aircraft, there is just not enough of its own long-haul wide-body aircraft. And then Russia will become a completely independent aircraft-building power. And few reach such heights. Actually, only Boeing and Airbus can boast of this.
The most popular type of aircraft is, of course, medium–haul. Up to 700 such aircraft fly in Russia alone. Regional and long-haul aircraft initially require less. However, this does not mean that they are not needed.
"We really need our own long-haul wide-body aircraft. All airlines will need at least 100-150 such aircraft," says the CEO of the industry portal "Avia.<url>" Roman Gusarov. According to the expert, it's not even about flights to distant foreign countries without transfers, although this is important, but about the size of Russia itself.
"There are many airlines in the world that do not have long-haul aircraft in their fleet, and they are doing well, for example, European companies, because they do not need large planes to fly inside Europe. But the situation in Russia is different, it cannot do without long-haul aircraft. We have huge distances. To fly from Moscow to Petropavlovsk-Kamchatsky without transfers, you need a long-haul aircraft of large capacity. It is important not only the flight distance without refueling, but also the economy of transportation. It is not profitable to fly far on a small plane, the cost of the chair will be very high. The more seats on board, the cheaper the ticket," explains Gusarov.
In the end, such planes will allow direct flights to foreign countries, to China, with which economic and trade relations are even faster going uphill, or to other Asian countries. Such planes are also required for flights to Cuba, because now Russia cannot land anywhere on the road – neither in Canada, nor in the USA, nor in Greenland.
"The long-haul aircraft project is important because it will keep the aircraft industry in Russia in good shape, contribute to its development, use intellectual potential and experience.
Secondly, the creation of a long-haul aircraft is important from the point of view of the previously set task of increasing revenues from the export of high-tech complex products. Thirdly, the developments that will be created during the implementation of the long-haul aircraft project can be used in other projects in the industry. This will help to maintain Russia's position among the developed countries," says Dmitry Baranov, a leading expert of the Finam Management Management Company.
"As for the timing, I am ready to share Manturov's optimism, but this is a big and complex project, and there are a lot of "buts" here," says Gusarov. On the one hand, the expert says, Russia is able to make wide-body aircraft, it has experience, developments, technologies. Russia has already created the IL-76 long-haul aircraft, as well as the Il-96-400. It is enough for Russia to take as a basis the design of the same IL-96 and create a new modern modification, with modern avionics, etc.
"The design of the IL-96 is very successful. In the West, wide-body aircraft have been flying for many decades, for example, the Boeing 747. Its first flight was made more than half a century ago.
Since then, the wing has been modernized, new avionics and new engines have been installed, but the basic design has been preserved. The IL-96's main problem is the old engine. The aircraft needs a new modern engine. Therefore, the timing of this project depends on when such an engine will appear. And then, I assure you, there will be no problem with a new plane. It will take literally several years, and we will already be able to test a modern car," Gusarov believes.
According to the expert, when creating a new aircraft, taking the IL-96 design as a basis is a more optimal and faster way than creating a new aircraft entirely from scratch. Although there are no details of the project yet, so it is difficult to talk about which path will be chosen in the end.
The engine is the most complex structure in an airplane, and only a few people in the world are able to make aircraft engines, again. Russia is among them. However, creating a new one takes time. It is not necessary to wait for help in aviation technologies and especially in engine building from China. "I think that China is up to us in the field of aircraft technology as up to the moon. China aircraft engine will not be able to do at least in the next twenty years. No one can help us here, only we can create the PD-35 engine ourselves. It is already being developed, and its huge layout under three meters in diameter was presented at the MAX," says Gusarov.
At the end of last year, it became known that the timing of the development of this engine, which was supposed to be presented until 2027-2028, was shifted by a couple of years. This was officially announced by the managing director of the Perm "UEC-Aviadvigatel" Alexander Inozemtsev. The reason is the redistribution of funds to increase the volume of PD–14, PD-8 and PS-90A engines for existing machines.
"I think that a new Russian long–haul aircraft with a domestic engine will appear after 2030, and time will tell when exactly," the expert believes.
"The creation of aviation equipment is a complex and time–consuming process, so there is nothing unusual if the deadlines are shifted, the main thing is to create a modern safe airliner that will fly perfectly and carry passengers," says Baranov.
The experience of Western aircraft manufacturers also shows that shifting deadlines is a common practice when creating an aircraft from scratch or a new modification of it.
It is worth noting that we are talking about two separate projects of long-haul airliners. One CR929 aircraft is being created together with China for the Chinese market, the other for the Russian market, for our personal use. In the first case, we are talking about the fact that Russia will teach China to produce such aircraft on its territory, will supply its components and engines from Russia to assemble finished aircraft at Chinese factories. This is an extremely profitable export project, because the Chinese market is huge, where the demand for wide-body aircraft will no longer be limited to a hundred pieces. In addition, the Chinese can take on part of the costs of the project, and building airplanes from scratch is also a very expensive pleasure. According to the expert, these two projects will not necessarily be identical, they may differ: for example, they may be different segments of long-haul airliners for individual market niches. Both projects do not cancel each other, but rather complement each other.
Are there any risks that Russia will be left without "working" Western analogues before its first own long-haul aircraft takes off in 2030-2035? In modern sanctions conditions, there is no access to new aircraft from Western companies.
However, Gusarov says that Russia mainly has new aircraft of Western companies on hand, which will fly perfectly until 2030 and even 2035, the main thing is that there are spare parts for them. Spare parts are delivered to Russia via parallel import, that is, informally through third countries, for example, through the same China. We mostly know how to repair Western aircraft ourselves. In addition, Iran, which has been under sanctions for a long time and has learned to "illegally" fly and repair aircraft of Western companies, helps us in this. "Iran has mastered the repair of individual models, of which we have few, so we have never repaired them ourselves," the source explains.
Just a few days ago, the Minister of Transport of the Russian Federation Vitaly Saveliev said that Russian companies now partially dismantled only seven passenger aircraft out of 1,162 cars. Moreover, these planes will be restored in the near future, just probably spare parts are expected.
In addition, while a new long-haul aircraft is being created, a new prototype Il-96-400 with an elongated fuselage is being prepared for flight in Voronezh. The machine was created as part of the IL-96 family aircraft modernization program.
Olga Samofalova