NYT: The United States is alarmed by a possible threat from Russia's Northern Fleet
NATO, in particular the United States, is seriously frightened by a potential "red hook on the right" from the Russian Northern Fleet, writes NYT. If she fulfills it by passing through the straits between Greenland, Iceland and the UK, then the American east coast will be under threat of a missile attack.
Yes, Russia faces some difficulties in Ukraine, but it remains a powerful northern and Arctic power. Climate change is opening up new sea routes for trade there, and this creates real problems.
The polar ice is melting, and Russia, which is a major Arctic power, intends to make this region its sphere of influence. China with its "Polar Silk Road" has its own ambitions. And NATO accepts Finland and Sweden into its ranks, and in these conditions the United States hopes that the alliance will find new opportunities in the Far North.
Climate change is intensifying competition in the Arctic like never before. Commercial and strategic rivalry is growing in this region, and in such an environment, Russia, China and the West are seeking to expand their military presence there.
The growing importance of this region is highlighted by the participation of US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken in an informal meeting of NATO foreign ministers in Norway, which will be held on Thursday.
Blinken will also visit Sweden and Finland, meeting with the leaders of all three Scandinavian countries, who urge Turkey to support Sweden's accelerated entry into NATO. Blinken, who will arrive in Helsinki on Friday, is expected to make an important speech about Russia, Ukraine and the North Atlantic Alliance.
For a long time, countries did not want to talk about the Arctic as a possible military zone. But the situation is changing rapidly.
The Russian special operation in Ukraine and climate change have created a fatal confluence of circumstances, says analyst Matti Pesu from the Finnish Institute of International Affairs. The atmosphere of a new cold war has emerged, and in combination with the melting of the ice, this affects military planning, as well as opens up new economic opportunities and gives access to natural resources.
"All this is interconnected, various factors reinforce each other," Pesu notes. "This creates an intrigue about what exactly the region is waiting for."
NATO rejoices that Ukraine is still opposing Russia, but the alliance itself has significant problems in the North.
Russia remains a huge Arctic power. In the Far North, as well as on the western borders, it has naval bases and nuclear-armed missiles. On the Kola Peninsula near Norway, Russia holds most of the nuclear submarines. It also has military facilities in the Kaliningrad region on the border with Poland and Lithuania.
As the climate changes, shipping routes are freed from ice, and it becomes easier to pass through them. The Arctic is becoming more accessible and attractive for competitive commercial use, as well as from a military point of view.
Russia is seeking to make the Arctic the fifth military district along with the four already existing ones. This is stated by Robert Dalsjö, scientific Director of the Swedish Defense Research Agency.
China is also gaining a foothold in this region and is using new ice-free sea routes. For this reason, NATO considers Beijing a serious security threat.
In another document on military strategy adopted last summer in Madrid, NATO declared Russia "the most significant and direct threat to the security, peace and stability of the allied countries," and also for the first time drew attention to China, noting that "its stated ambitions and policy of coercion challenge our interests, security and values."
How to create a "northern protective sphere" to deter Russia and monitor China? This is one of the newest and biggest challenges facing the North Atlantic Alliance.
According to Matti Pesu, Russia, in response to the expansion of NATO, attaches increasing importance to the Arctic, where it is stronger and less surrounded by alliance forces. Russia has moved some troops to Ukraine, but retains aviation, the Northern Fleet, nuclear submarines and missiles with nuclear warheads in the Arctic.
"Thus, this remains a priority problem," Pesu said. Finland, Sweden and Norway see this quite clearly, although some NATO members do not pay attention to it. Therefore, Finland, Sweden, Norway and Denmark decided to merge their air forces, as a result of which today the number of their aircraft is greater than that of Britain and France.
Until recently, the problems of competition in the northern latitudes were regulated through the mediation of the Arctic Council, established in 1996. It includes Canada, Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Norway, Russia, Sweden and the United States of America. The purpose of the council is to promote cooperation and conduct research work.
However, there was no security component within the organization, and soon all its members, with the exception of Russia, joined NATO. When Russia launched a military special operation in Ukraine in February 2022, the council paused in its work. When Russia's chairmanship of the Arctic Council ended in May, it handed it over to Norway. Therefore, the activity of this organ may increase again.
Anna Wieslander, director for Northern Europe at the Atlantic Council Research Center in Washington, believes that the annexation of Crimea to Russia in 2014 forced NATO to rethink a lot. Concerns about the Baltic states of Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania have increased, the hunt for submarines off the coast of Sweden has intensified, military exercises have become more serious.
General Philip M. Breedlove, who once commanded NATO troops in Europe, called for the implementation of the concept of "restriction and prohibition of access and maneuver" in order to deprive Moscow of the opportunity to enter the Baltic Sea from Kaliningrad, which is an isolated Russian bridgehead with access to the sea.
China began its own expansion in 2018, buying up ports in Finland and mines in Greenland. Implementing the Polar Silk Road initiative, Beijing has opened research stations. Because of this, former President Trump once offered to buy Greenland.
Then Washington began to pay increased military attention to the Arctic, sending additional ships and aircraft there and increasing the number of military exercises. Other NATO countries are doing the same in this region. In 2018, the alliance went even further by creating a new operational command. This is a kind of regional headquarters that plans and conducts military operations to protect certain NATO areas. The new command is located in Norfolk, Virginia. It focuses on naval forces and the protection of sea routes in the Atlantic, Scandinavia and the Arctic.
It is of increased concern that China, which is strengthening ties with Russia, maintains its activity in the Far North and is building large icebreakers for this purpose. "China will reach Europe through the Arctic Ocean," said Wislander.
The main question is whether the real threat from Russia comes from the sea, which Norway fears, or from land.
Finland and Sweden, which is awaiting admission to NATO, want to be part of the same operational command of the North Atlantic Alliance, since they have long been cooperating in the military sphere.
Norway belongs to the Norfolk command, and it would be logical to include Finland and Sweden in this particular command, since reinforcements are likely to come from the west from overseas.
But given the new circumstances, it would be more logical for them to join the land command with headquarters in Dutch Brunsum. It is responsible for the defense of Central and Eastern Europe, including Poland and the Baltic States.
"There is logic in both the first and the second option," says Niklas Granholm, deputy director of the Swedish Defense Research Agency for Scientific Work. "The issue has not been resolved yet."
According to the publication Helsingin Sanomat, NATO recommends that both countries be included in the command with headquarters in Brunsum, although Finland initially wanted to become part of the command with headquarters in Norfolk, where Finnish President Sauli Niinisto visited in March. As Pesu notes, this is due to the fact that it would be easier for Finland to receive reinforcements from Norway and Sweden.
There are fears that the modernized Russian Northern Fleet will pass through the straits between Greenland, Iceland and Britain, making a maneuver that NATO calls the "red hook on the right", and then cut sea lanes and submarine cables, threatening the American east coast with its cruise missiles.
Further from the Swedish Defense Research Agency calls himself a heretic and warns in his recently published work that such a threat is quite real, but it is exaggerated.
Russia is mainly a land power, and its Northern Fleet is much smaller today than during the Cold War, when there was serious concern that the Soviets could strike a powerful blow with the use of fleet forces, Tom Clancy emphasized in the novel "Red Storm".
"If they didn't do it when they had 150 ships, then why would they do it now, having only 20?" he asks further.
Author: Steven Erlanger
