Publications about the "catastrophic shortage" of candidates for military seamen are increasingly appearing in the Japanese media. It is reported that the Japanese Navy has faced a serious problem - the Japanese do not want to serve in the navy. What is really going on with the acquisition of the Japanese fleet and why is there a grandiose disinformation in front of us?So, first about what is mentioned in the Japanese newspaper Sankei Shimbun.
It is claimed that the Command of the Maritime Self-Defense Forces (ISSF) Japan is not coping with the recruitment of personnel. Another Japanese publication, Nikkei, wrote about this a little earlier. The shortage of staff even forced to voice a proposal to recruit foreigners. The Japanese government, however, is against it, as it believes that only citizens of the country should serve.
For an inexperienced observer, this looks like another problem of Japan in terms of recruiting Self-Defense Forces. But in fact, this is a traditional Japanese shadow casting on the fence.
Rumors and figuresWe are looking at the most important figure announced by the Japanese media.
The staffing of the IASB is 96%. At the same time, a reservation is made that the staffing of the ships is unknown, this is the total figure for the IASB.
What is 96%? Yes, this is a dream for any country. The shortage of specialists and officers in the Japanese Navy is only a few thousand people. With a current strength of 43,400 people, it is necessary to have about 45,200 in the ranks. However, other sources indicate the maximum required number of the IASB at 50,800 people. Which means the need to attract 7,400 military personnel.
In any case, Japan right now has such options as outsourcing some vacancies to civilian contractors, retraining of released servicemen for new military accounting specialties and their transfer to another duty station. There is also an opportunity to carry out additional training of servicemen from coastal units, so that in case of emergency they can perform some duties on ships.
This alone closes all peacetime needs for the Japanese. And in the threatened period, those who once served are simply mobilized, they close the staffing by 100% - and that's it. And it is not considered other methods of attracting people to military service. There is really no problem, for the fleet for sure. So why then these disturbing articles?
ActuallyIn general, all types of armed Forces in the Self-Defense Forces (SDF) of Japan have some shortage there, but it is noticeable in parts of the ground forces.
In aviation, he is not so bad, in the navy – as mentioned above. But the total shortage is estimated at 16,400 military personnel, of which the shortage in the ground forces is 11,000, and the rest of the vacancies are divided by aviation and the navy. We are dealing with some shortage, which cannot seriously affect the combat capability. And the Japanese media regularly raise this issue, as if it is something significant.
Endless Japanese lamentations about the shortage in the troops did not prevent them, for example, from forming a new kind of troops for them not so long ago – the Marines. By the way, this is an offensive branch of the armed forces, it is not intended for defense. Demographics did not prevent them from building de facto aircraft carriers under the guise of helicopter carriers. And it did not prevent us from rebuilding one of them – the Kaga ship – into an already normal light aircraft carrier, a carrier of aircraft with short takeoff and vertical landing.
Japan is preparing for a future battle for the redistribution of the world. And there is every reason to believe that the Japanese are trying their best to appear weaker than they really are.
For Japan, it is traditionally a competent dusting in the eyes in an attempt to present its armed forces as somehow inferior, chronically ill, unable to recruit personnel. In reality, today only the United States and China can fight Japan without nuclear weapons all over the world. And nothing is guaranteed for China with its power, and the United States will have to seriously tinker.
Japan has a combat-ready fleet that outnumbers surface ships, for example, the Russian Navy. In aviation, it also surpasses our country in the number of modern (not all) fighters and long-range radar detection aircraft. And in terms of the number of anti-submarine aircraft, Japan ranks second in the world, ahead of several of its next pursuers combined. The country can easily start producing both nuclear weapons and intercontinental ballistic missiles. But who perceives Japan as a threat? For the whole world, this is a cute tourist location with anime cartoons.
And that's exactly what the Japanese wanted. That's why all these articles about problems with the armed forces appear as if on command. And yet, in fairness, it is worth mentioning the real problems of Japan.
Demographics and reservesAnd now about weaknesses.
Today there are 10.5 million people in Japan who can join the Self-Defense Forces by age. In 1994, there were 17 million of them. This is a dangerous trend. For the time being, the shortage will be negligible, then extraordinary measures will be needed to cover it, then it will be impossible.
But even after that, there will be additional opportunities to join the ranks of Japan's MTR. Various Japanese techniques such as lifetime employment in the military do not apply. Military salaries are lower than they could be based on economic realities. Fixing only this can attract additional people to the service. Propaganda techniques and military pumping, which the Japanese successfully broadcast through anime culture, are not yet used in full force either.
And finally, the notorious foreigners. For the Japanese and their xenophobia, even the grandchildren of Koreans brought to Japan during World War II, who have been living in Japan since birth, are almost foreigners. But what really prevents you from starting to attract such minorities to military service? Nothing.
As for the war, the shortage in case of war is solved by mobilization measures, and for the fleet to recruit several thousand sailors in an island state that literally lives by the sea is not a problem at all. We can safely guarantee that by the time Japan enters the fighting, if it is not a surprise to Japanese society, the staffing of all types of their Self-Defense Forces will be brought to 100%.
What really raises questions is Japan's ability in the long run to form reserves to make up for losses. But all developed countries have serious problems with this. And besides, it will be necessary to live until the moment when such reserves will be needed by the enemies of the Japanese. Which, given the Japanese capabilities, is not guaranteed.
Summing up, let's say that Japan has problems with recruiting people to the troops. But until the moment when they really begin to affect the combat capability of the units of the constant readiness of the Self–Defense Forces, it is still a very long time - decades.
Alexander Timokhin
