Artificial intelligence vs. "man with a gun"In 1915, during the First World War, France, and later the United States and Great Britain for the first time used samples of combat robotics: mobile tracked and wheeled vehicles controlled by wires to undermine enemy ground targets.
The deployment and use of military robotics was approved at the beginning of the XXI century among the determining factors for increasing the combat capabilities of troops in all advanced countries of the world. And in all basic – aerospace, land and sea - spheres of armed struggle.
The current moment in the evolution of robotic complexes (RTK) can be characterized as a transitional period from the stage of origin and formation of this means of armed struggle to the stage of intensification of its deployment and application.
ON EARTH, IN HEAVEN AND AT SEAThe practice of conducting combat operations shows that most of the tasks of using RTK are still tactical in nature.
Operational and operational-strategic scale tasks have been solved relatively recently, mainly by reconnaissance unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) and in relation to a weak enemy. The management of the group application of military robotics is also still carried out within the tactical level.
At the same time, the current period of development is characterized by multiple accumulations in leading countries, including Russia, of significant results in the complex of areas defining robotics. Their implementation implies an active increase in the next ten to fifteen years of the contribution of the RTK to solving operational and strategic scale tasks.
With the active participation of robotic complexes in the operations of the troops, an expanded list of tasks will be solved – reconnaissance, shock, electronic warfare (EW), mining and mine clearance, management and communications, security, logistics, rescue and others.
Part of the robotic complexes will be able to autonomously assess and predict the situation, optimize their actions, interact with other RTCs and command posts, participate in local group actions – including around the clock, in any weather and climatic conditions and when countering a strong enemy.
Within the framework of these prospects, the number and share of robotic complexes will significantly increase. So, in the US army brigades, they will replace more than 30% of combat vehicles by 2030, increasing the combat capabilities of the brigades three times.
The contours of the application of marine RTCs will be implemented in providing the following tasks:
patrolling and lighting the situation;
tracking of specified surface, underwater, aerial and ground objects;
ensuring the combat stability of their attack submarines;
jamming the enemy's underwater surveillance systems;
actions to disorient the enemy;
mine-barrage and mine action;
sabotage and anti-sabotage actions;
defeat of the specified enemy objects;
protection of important water, underwater and shore-based facilities;
emergency, rescue and survey work.
The contours of the use of air RTCs will be implemented in providing the following tasks:
patrolling areas;
search for objects;
exploration of different types;
striking enemy ground, sea and air targets;
setting up mine-explosive barriers;
tasks of electronic warfare;
adjusting fire on the enemy;
relaying messages;
management of group actions of land, sea and air RTCs.
THE NEAR FUTUREThe greatest dynamics of the combat capabilities of Western robotics is now observed in the air and aerospace segment.
The current plans of the United States are focused on ensuring the possibility of instant response to crisis situations of our time with the use of hypersonic unmanned vehicles by 2030.
The political and military leadership of the United States proceeds from the position that since the 2030s, a radical increase in the tactical and technical capabilities of the RTK is expected. Based on the consolidated position of the American establishment, the following forecasts can be made.
Firstly, the dynamics of an expanded range of well-known breakthrough developments can provide significant progress in the development of basic tactical and technical characteristics (TTX) of air, space, land and sea RTCs, as well as hybrid RTCs being created that operate in different environments.
Secondly, by 2035, it is planned to create a high-speed automated communication network in the United States to integrate robotic complexes into a single information space. With all the difficulties and potential vulnerabilities of this direction, its development will determine a fundamentally new stage in the system and network management of robotics and armed struggle, and then the confrontation as a whole.
Thirdly, the currently observed progress in the development of nano-, bio-, information and cognitive technologies will ensure the creation of qualitatively new classes of robots in the near future. Including robots with high artificial intelligence, biomechanical robots, anthropomorphic robots, avatar robots, micro- and nanorobots for various purposes.
NEW DIRECTIONS OF DEVELOPMENTMiniaturization of robotics will reduce its energy needs, use non-traditional energy sources, expand its production and application.
Already today, the creation of such samples is being worked out "in metal" as:
ten-gram satellites launched into orbit by rockets weighing less than 1 kg; microminiature means of ground reconnaissance such as Smart Dust ("smart dust"); miniature UAVs with the size and shape of large insects.
The American Defense Advanced Development Agency (DARPA), in a program to develop miniature biological reconnaissance tools, is implanting computer nanochips into moths and beetles, which, after overgrowing with living tissue, will allow remote control of the insect nervous system, using nanoscale sensors, cameras and wireless transmitters implanted in them.
The achievements of micro-robotics since the mid-2020s will fundamentally expand the capabilities of robotics in the covert conduct of special (intelligence, information, sabotage and other) operations, including strategic importance. For example, to disrupt critical elements of the enemy's intelligence, control, communications and life support systems; to neutralize the leaders of extremist forces, etc.
Work is increasing on the creation of diverse nanorobots for covert implementation in automation and communication tools. And also – at the junction with genetic engineering – nanobiorobots for the introduction into the organisms of specified persons and social groups with a wide range of tasks.
The ultra-small satellites being developed can also be used in a group way: in the form of a "swarm" or "cloud" with dimensions from 10 m to 1 km. Their receiving and transmitting micro devices will allow solving many technical tasks – intelligence, communications, navigation, etc. The prospects for the group application of robotics will continue to develop within the framework of not "network-centric" operations of groups of troops, but "network-centric" operations of groups of robots themselves.
However, the task of full coverage by global automated control systems of RTK group actions at the strategic level is likely to be solved selectively in the second half of the XXI century – due to multiple technical problems, operational risks and financial constraints.
At the same time, the multidimensionality and mass application of robotics in armed struggle initiate by the middle of this century the development of new spheres, horizons, forms and methods – including covert ones, in non-military areas, in the formal world. Robotic complexes will determine the evolution of military art, the dialectic of man and technology.
At the same time, the operational essence of the struggle will also change. Gradually, there will be a transition from the traditional struggle between people to the struggle of artificial intelligences (in the case of a conflict between highly developed parties) or to the struggle of artificial intelligence and a "man with a gun" (with the technological backwardness of one of the parties). The mass introduction of robotics can initiate revolutionary changes in military theory, art and practice from the middle of the XXI century, commensurate with the consequences of the introduction of missile and nuclear weapons, automation and radar in the middle of the twentieth century.
THE RUSSIAN WAYThe expansion of the nomenclature of robots designed for operations on land, sea and in airspace, the reduction of their cost due to mass production, the development of the theory of the use of robotic complexes in combat leads to a radical revision by military experts of foreign countries of views on the nature of the actions of troops during military conflicts, options for countering enemy formations.
Some samples of the Russian RTK, successfully used during the SVO, were described in previous publications (see, for example: " Tested during a special operation ", "HBO", 04/20.23).
In general, domestic development in this area has slowed down significantly during the birth and formation of the new Russian state. Now it is gaining strength again, as evidenced by the Decree of the President of the Russian Federation No. 603 of May 7, 2012, decisions of the Ministry of Defense and the practice of the State Research and Testing Center for Robotics (GNIIC RT) of the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation.
However, the backlog has not yet been sufficiently compensated and still limits the scope of activities. It seems relevant to take measures (regulatory, legal, personnel, organizational) that contribute to the supporting management bodies of this area (the Military-Industrial Commission, the Foundation for Advanced Research, the Main Directorate of Innovative Development of the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation, the State Research Institute of the Republic of Tatarstan) in increasing control, coordination and optimization of complex activities to strengthen this area according to new tasks, threats and challenges.
The importance of prompt and high-quality solutions to the problems of using robotic systems, forecasting methods and techniques of their application determine the need to continue and expand work on this topic.
Vasily IvanovVasily Ivanovich Ivanov is a journalist.
