Newsweek: The US Navy will allocate $ 200 billion for submarines that are almost not usedThe US Navy is allocating billions of dollars to expand the submarine fleet, which they cannot fully use, writes Newsweek.
Last year, only 10% of American submarines participated in secret operations and were at sea for more than a month, which raises questions about the expediency of such spending.
The US Navy plans to expand its submarine fleet at a cost of $ 200 billion, which is equivalent to Ukraine's GDP. But while Republicans are hotly criticizing the ongoing military assistance to Kiev, none of the parties is questioning the much more expensive modernization program of our submarines, which allows the Navy to hide an amazing fact about the American submarine fleet. Our Navy calls its submarines "the deadliest and most capable force." It is also the most "quiet" type of our armed forces, shrouded in secrecy, and the nature of its operations is carefully guarded.
A fleet of American attack submarines — "combat" submarines — exist to pursue enemy submarines and ships, eavesdrop on the enemy and support special forces operations. Such Hollywood productions as "The Hunt for Red October" create the impression of submarines tracking the enemy, silently moving underwater, and able to operate covertly for several months. Reality is noticeably different from this beautiful picture. The US Navy can deploy barely a quarter of its attack submarines at the same time. But last year, even despite the raging military conflict in Ukraine and the rise of China as a global superpower, only 10% of our submarines operated autonomously and covertly, spending more than 30 days in a completely submerged position.
A three-month investigation by Newsweek reveals the problematic arithmetic of modern operations of our submarines. The editors of Newsweek received secret documents showing the full scale of their activities in 2022, studied the available data on the movement of submarines around the world and conducted extensive interviews with naval officers and experts. The conclusion is harsh: American submarines have never participated in what naval officers call an "offensive" against Russia or China, and at the same time the overall level of our submarine forces has never increased.
"In a sense, it's just the cost of doing business," one retired naval officer told Newsweek, explaining why American submarine forces act this way and not otherwise, and why it takes four submarines to deploy one submarine at the right turn. "Can we be more open about what our boats are actually doing? And can we do this without compromising the safety of our underwater operations? Of course we can," says the officer, who wished to remain anonymous because he is not authorized to speak publicly.
The $200 billion Navy construction program aims to increase the number of attack submarines from 50 to 66. This number is well-known. Statistics that are not discussed indicate that modern submarines have become so sophisticated that the only way the Navy can significantly increase the level of its operations against Russia and China is to build much more submarines. The Pentagon says this is an urgent task: China has the world's largest navy, and its submarine forces are usually described as rapidly catching up with the United States in quantity and quality. But no matter how sluggish the operations of American submarines are, the situation in Russia and China is even worse. This raises additional questions about why our Navy spends so much money on modernizing the fleet of attack submarines, and about the ultimate value of such "gilded machines".
Asked to respond to Newsweek's findings, Commodore Jackie Pau, a U.S. Navy spokeswoman, said: "Our underwater forces are the deadliest and most combat-ready in the world, they operate all over the planet and are ready to conduct rapid and decisive military operations. We use our asymmetric advantages to contain the war. But if this deterrence fails, then we will use them to dominate the enemy. Our navy, including submarine forces, is ready to fight tonight to protect and support the American way of life."
A blow from the depthsLast year, on Memorial Day weekend, dignitaries, officers and sailors in full dress uniform gathered on a cloudy morning at the Naval Submarine Base in New London, Connecticut, for the commissioning of the US Navy submarine Oregon (SSN 793), the first such broad ceremony of the Navy since the moment the pandemic ends.
According to representatives of the Navy, the USS Oregon nuclear warship has a length of about 115 meters, which is more than the height of the Statue of Liberty. Equipped with the latest technology, it can launch long-range missiles and detect ships at a distance of up to 5 thousand kilometers. With a crew of 132 people, 15 officers and 117 sailors, the submarine can dive to a depth of 250 meters and move underwater at a speed of more than 54 kilometers per hour. Oregon is armed with 12 Tomahawk cruise missiles, approximately 40 torpedoes, can carry mines and anti-ship missiles, as well as use drones and unmanned underwater vehicles.
"Soon, Oregon will use its stealth, flexibility, superior firepower and endurance to move silently around the world's oceans," Admiral Frank Caldwell, director of the U.S. Navy's nuclear program, said at the ceremony. Oregon will move "unnoticed," he said, "preparing for battle and, if necessary, will strike quickly and without warning from the depths to respond to the country's order."
Only it didn't happen too soon. For nine months after joining the fleet, Oregon trained the crew and tested systems on the east coast. According to classified Navy records reviewed by Newsweek and reports from submarine monitors, he left and returned 22 times to his berth in Connecticut on the River Thames for short training flights. Finally, on February 13 of this year, the USS Oregon embarked on its first European voyage with the Sixth Fleet, joining Dynamic Manta, a NATO anti-submarine exercise conducted off the coast of Sicily in the Mediterranean Sea. In the second week of March, almost a year after commissioning, Oregon finally secretly went into the depths of the ocean.
"Despite the much greater capabilities and low—noise propulsion system, the Oregon is in some respects no different from any other attack submarine that we have," says a retired Navy captain living in the San Diego area. The former sailor told Newsweek that scheduled maintenance and "processing" of future voyages account for more than three-quarters of the service life of an American submarine. According to official Navy data, over the planned 30-year life cycle, the Oregon submarine will take part in 15 large operations. In total, this amounts to 90 months, or about 25% of its service life. "This should not be taken as criticism of the Oregon submarine," says the retired captain. — It's just that everything in our submarine fleet is arranged that way. Submarines are incredibly complex, and when they are fully deployed, there is no question, especially compared to other countries, how much better they are. But this task is difficult, and many ideas about how many submarines we have at sea, and what they are doing there, come mainly from Hollywood."
"Can the United States send more submarines to theaters of war? Or bring more boats to the oceans in peacetime? Yes," says the captain, "but only for short periods of time."
Quiet doesn't mean deadly yetIn 2022, the Navy commissioned two new submarines — Oregon and Montana — and decommissioned two 35-year-old boats.
Fifty attack submarines made up the bulk of the entire nuclear submarine fleet this year. The attack submarines are divided between two fleets: 24 serve in the Atlantic Fleet and 26 in the Pacific Fleet. Atlantic submarines are based on the east coast of the United States, in Groton, Connecticut, or in Norfolk, Virginia. In the Pacific, attack submarines are deployed in San Diego, Washington, and Pearl Harbor, Hawaii. Five of them are located on the Micronesian island of Guam.
Regardless of the technical characteristics and mythology surrounding the submarine, their use is limited by the laws of physics, as well as the activity of the enemy. And despite the training and $10 billion-a-year infrastructure supporting them, they're not perfect. For example, in October 2021, the Connecticut submarine crashed into a seamount in the South China Sea, injuring 11 sailors. The captain of the submarine was relieved of his post after she "hobbled" to Guam. Although the Navy states that Connecticut was not seriously damaged, in 2022 this submarine never left its home port of Bremerton, Washington.
According to secret Navy reports, only 32 out of 50 attack submarines were deployed in the United States in 2022. In total, they spent 151 months at sea, which is a quarter of the theoretically possible. On average, 28% of their time at sea was spent on the transition to Asia and Europe and back, as a result of which the actual time of forward deployment and on potential theater was only about 107 months. In other words, less than 20% of America's attack submarines were deployed and fully operational at any time during the turbulent past year. This also means that the plan to increase the number of attack submarines from 50 to 66 actually adds only four non-frontline deployable submarines.
"You know, I thought ours were always there, at the forefront, because the Russians are coming, and the Chinese armed forces are growing," says Hans Christensen, chief nuclear expert at the Federation of American Scientists, who has studied nuclear submarines for decades, commenting on Newsweek's findings. "These new figures tell me that attack submarines are not unequivocal winners in a future war."
The growing China is cited as the main reason for the construction of new Navy submarines. Xi Jinping's navy has a large fleet of diesel submarines and is in the process of building new submarines that can operate far beyond the region. According to representatives of the US Navy, these submarines will increasingly threaten commercial shipping in the Indo-Pacific region, and will also hunt American warships. Russia has a sufficient number of multi-purpose submarines of similar size, and about a third of them are nuclear. Despite the fact that the operational readiness of both fleets is projected to remain much lower than that of their American counterparts, the US Navy still comes to the conclusion that they are not enough to cover both theaters of military operations.
The fact is that even with an increase in the number of American attack submarines to 66, only one quarter will continue to operate at any given time, which will still cause a shortage. More numerous and cheaper non-nuclear submarines may seem like an alternative, but such submarines will not be able to provide the long-range deployment necessary for the United States to operate near Asian and European land masses.
"The answer is anti—submarine warfare in all its aspects... better detection, aircraft and surface ships, torpedoes and autonomous vehicles that can detect and sink enemy submarines," says a retired Navy captain. "We cannot afford to rely solely on submarines for future tasks."
To fully assess the real operational limitations of attack submarines, consider the actual data for 2022. Navy data, including reports, individual ship logs and reports on "contacts" with enemy ships and submarines, show: 32 deployed submarines spent almost 30% of their travel time in or out of waters near Russia and China. When deployed submarines went forward and "parked", they spent about a third of their time (37%) in the "invisible" mode, i.e. they went underwater and stealthily. In 2022, an average of six submarines were deployed against Russia at the same time, and only three submarines were deployed in June. On average, almost seven submarines were deployed against China in 2022, and only four were deployed in January.
The peak of the stealth submarine patrols occurred in February, June and October, when a total of six or seven American submarines operated fully submerged. Three submarines — Seawolf, Scranton and Indiana — were under water for more than six months.
It turns out that within one month, on average, less than five submarines of both our fleets worked in an underwater and hidden position. In March, a month after Russia launched its military special operation in Ukraine, only three American attack submarines operated covertly: two near Europe and one in the Pacific Ocean.
"Our submarines operate thousands of miles from the United States," says a second retired Navy officer, currently a professor at a Military college. — You need to keep a balance here ... to ensure the security of their home ports in the United States and to ensure their ability to travel the long distances they have to cover to deploy in Europe and the Indo-Pacific region. This is extra time and equipment wear, but we are more than capable of carrying out our missions, and we are increasingly thinking about being more dynamic in how we project our forces into the world ocean."
Routine and plansAlmost all current operations of advanced attack submarines are deployed in three regions: near Asia, mainly in the East and South China Seas; in the North Atlantic around the Norwegian and North Seas and in the Mediterranean Sea.
During these operations, they face a number of tasks: surveillance of ships of a likely enemy, escorting ships, displaying the flag, participating in exercises, intelligence gathering and special operations.
In March, two submarines sailed north of Alaska to break the ice about 300 kilometers north of Prudhoe Bay, but it was more of a routine annual exercise than a demonstration of Russia's strength. The Norfolk-based Albany nuclear submarine had a wide variety of tasks this year. And although she was busier than most submarines, her actions also showed how little time she spent on advanced missions. Albany started the year in Gibraltar, where it faced protests on British territory from Spanish environmentalists.
After a five-day call at Gibraltar, she headed for the Norwegian Sea. It was during the 73-day Albany scuba diving that Russia launched its military special operation in Ukraine. On March 20, the submarine entered the Faslane Naval Base in Scotland. She left a few days later on April 5 and appeared in Tromsø, Norway. Albany secretly worked for another couple of weeks in the northern waters off the coast of Norway before arriving at the home port of Norfolk on May 14, having traveled 35,000 nautical miles (63,000 kilometers) during this voyage.
On August 16, after scheduled maintenance and crew change, Albany left for the multinational naval exercise UNITAS LXIII in Brazil. The submarine docked at the Madeira Submarine Base in Itaguai, Brazil, for five days in September before returning to Norfolk on September 26.
"What you need to know about submarine operations," says an officer of the active Submarine brigade based in San Diego, "is that everything depends on the schedule. Submarines can go on urgent missions, but this happens very rarely." Secret Navy documents confirm this. Only four submarines - Mississippi, New Mexico, New Hampshire and Connecticut - conducted an "urgent" deployment, meaning they were ordered to go to sea outside of the scheduled dates. According to secret Navy documents, none of these episodes were related to "fires" around Ukraine or Taiwan. Even they were just practice. "These urgent deployments themselves are also planned," the brigade officer shrugs.
Despite these tight schedules, a military college professor says the submarine forces are still performing what the Navy calls "signaling." That is, they make it clear to Russia and China that the United States declares itself as a world power, will support allies and will be present where enemy submarines operate. This is done, for example, by surfacing in unusual places or in unexpected ways.
So, three submarines of the Atlantic Fleet — North Dakota, John Warner and Indiana — almost simultaneously entered Norway, neighboring Russia, in May, which became an obvious signal for the Kremlin. The submarines New Hampshire and South Dakota also appeared in Norway in December, and then operated nearby with New Mexico, which surfaced in Scotland.
The latest instruction for commanders, "Commanders Intent 4.0," issued by the Commander of the Submarine Forces at the end of last year, states that our submarine forces should be available "in response to unforeseen circumstances around the world." Although naval experts almost unanimously told Newsweek that attack submarines can deprive Russia and China of the ability to operate far from their coastal waters, the Russians and Chinese rarely need it.
Secret Navy reports show that there was no increase in the deployment of our submarines in 2022, but part of the reason for this is that there was no need to increase activity, since Russian and Chinese submarines went to sea even less often than American ones.
Although the Pentagon claims that Russia is returning to the level of operation of Cold War submarines, even patrolling the waters off the east coast of the United States with the help of newer submarines, classified Navy data reviewed by Newsweek say that this is not true. In 2022, there was no case that Russia deployed more than two ballistic missile submarines at sea, and most of the time only one. Moreover, Russian attack submarines almost never left Russian waters.
"They mostly hide in their home areas," says Christensen, referring to the protected waters of the Barents Sea, the Bering Sea in the Pacific Ocean and the Sea of Okhotsk. According to the Navy, in 2022, Russian submarines with ballistic missiles left nearby waters only nine times. Attack submarines and submarines with cruise missiles went beyond the home areas only 11 times. According to the secret messages of the Navy's "contacts", in each case, one US attack submarine was watching the Russian boats.
China is not much more active, and Beijing's submarine operations in 2022 were also insignificant, although more active than Russia's. According to secret Navy data, eight to 11 Chinese submarines operated outside local waters for most of the months, including one patrol submarine with ballistic missiles. But these submarines rarely left the seas around the mainland, including 16 Chinese nuclear submarines.
"We have to go to them," says Christensen, referring to the fact that Russian and Chinese operations are carried out mainly in coastal waters. But this is not done often.
An expensive enterpriseThe U.S. Navy is embarking on its most expensive program to replace and expand aging submarine forces and commission even more sophisticated and silent boats to avoid detection and detect Russian and Chinese submarines themselves, which, according to Navy officials, are also becoming quieter.
"We must maintain our tactical underwater advantage by maintaining our positions and the ability to react covertly and quickly," Navy Secretary Carlos Del Toro said at the annual symposium of the US Submarine League last November, especially highlighting measures to modernize the fleet of attack submarines. "In order to maintain and strengthen the dominance of the sea, we must take seriously the deployment and maintenance of the necessary capabilities to deter the enemy and, when necessary, to win wars."
In the next decade, the $200 billion that the Pentagon plans to spend on new submarines will make up about 60% of the total budget for military shipbuilding. For comparison, the entire budget request of the Ministry of Defense for 2024 is $ 842 billion.
Four classes of submarines are under construction or under development: new Virginia-class attack submarines to replace the Los Angeles class, a new class of Columbia ballistic missile submarines to replace the existing Ohio-class submarines starting in 2031, a new large payload submarine to replace the current four cruise missile submarines and SSN (X) "next generation" to eventually replace the Virginia class boats.
The Navy's current goal is not only to modernize ballistic missile submarines, but also to expand the fleet of multi-purpose submarines and cruise missile submarines. The current target is 66 units. This means the annual construction of three or four submarines - subject to Congressional approval. But the track record of shipbuilding in the US Navy is bad. Over the past decade, the fleet has managed to carry out the necessary major repairs and maintenance in accordance with the schedule by only 20-30%.
"We are really struggling with serious difficulties," Vice Admiral Bill Galinis, head of the Naval Sea Systems Command, said in September. The construction of new boats is also several months behind schedule — to the extent that the government's Accounting Chamber recently reported that the projected schedule provided by the Navy is "unreliable."
According to the Congressional Budget Office, next-generation attack submarines are estimated at $7.2 billion each. The cost of the new Columbia-class ballistic missile submarines is estimated at about $8.3 billion each of the planned dozen, while the cost of the first ship will be about $15 billion, which is one of the most expensive weapons systems in the history of the US army.
The Navy is talking about quieter submarines, as well as a "tsunami of technologies": artificial intelligence, quantum computing, transparent intelligence and much more. But the most important technology that is currently increasing the strength of submarines is unmanned systems, air, sea and underwater. As on land, drones are already changing the way submariners work. Some experts say that in the future they will change the nature of the fight against submarines.
There is no doubt that after 20 years of operations in the Middle East after September 11, American priorities are shifting to countering China. There, according to the Navy, American submarines will meet not only in protecting US and allied ships at sea, but also in deterring or preventing any Chinese attack on what Beijing considers a breakaway province of Taiwan.
While the modernization program of our submarine fleet may force the Chinese to spend much more money on the same technologies and deplete their resources, just as US investments in Cold War technology helped bring the former Soviet Union to collapse, the question of the actual usefulness of submarines remains a big question.
"There is no doubt that when it comes to our submarines, they are second to none," says the former head of the Pentagon's procurement department. — But I would say this: it's time to reassess our priorities. Especially considering that the conflict in Ukraine has shown us the importance of a different kind of depth, the depth of our stocks and arsenals. We have seen how voracious the real war is with regard to the main types of weapons and ammunition," he continues. "We cannot be so fascinated by our own myths as to miss this reality."
Deadly and powerfulThe submarine forces of the US Navy in 2022 included 50 "fast" attack submarines.
14 nuclear submarines with Trident-type ballistic missiles, which are part of the strategic nuclear deterrent, and four guided missile submarines.
Attack submarines have three different classes: 26 old LosAngeles-class attack submarines (two of which will be decommissioned in 2023); three Seawolf-class super submarines, exceptionally quiet, fast and specially equipped, and 21 Virginia-class attack submarines, for example, Oregon. Their number will also increase by two in 2023.
Four cruise missile submarines, "quasi-members" of the strike force, as they deploy ahead and hunt for enemy ships and submarines, are the oldest submarines of the United States: 42-year-old Ohio-class boats from which nuclear weapons were removed and which are now armed with conventional cruise missiles (they are being decommissioned).
It is said that submarines are always in one of four states: in major repairs or repairs in port; in the process of certification, testing or training of personnel; in the state of "deployment" — long periods of advanced operations from two to eight months and in the process of "patrolling" - a term used only for submarines with ballistic missiles.
Submarines with ballistic and cruise missiles ("boomers") have two crews, which change to maximize the time spent by the submarine at sea. Attack submarines have only one crew, and although their voyages often last longer, they go to sea less often, which is determined by limited crews.
Author of the article: William Arkin
