The former commander-in-chief of NATO forces in Europe spoke about the shortage of skilled workers in the US military-industrial complexThe American industry is not coping with the needs of Ukraine, writes former commander-in-chief of NATO forces in Europe Stavridis in an article for Bloomberg.
Problems arise, among other things, due to the lack of qualified workers in the production of ammunition.
James StavridisThe production base in the United States is experiencing supply problems and a shortage of labor, and there are more and more contracts with the Pentagon.
The fighting in Ukraine continues, and Kiev may launch a major offensive at any moment.
However, the parties to the conflict face a shortage of ammunition, electronic parts, precision weapons and even cement. The West has much more opportunities to supply everything necessary for conducting military operations, but disruptions in global trade and supply chains are making themselves felt.
In fact, the "spring offensive" is not about tanks and armored vehicles, but about increasing the production of weapons at factories and factories of democratic supporters of Ukraine. What should they do together so that Ukrainians get everything they need? And what will be the consequences for the global supply chain?
More than ten years ago, I led the forces of the North Atlantic Alliance. At that time, thinking about our military operations in Afghanistan, the Balkans, Libya, as well as the fight against pirates, I often thought about logistics and supply chains. We were sure that the military-industrial base of the West, providing 31 NATO countries with a combined military budget of more than $ 1.2 trillion, would cope with these crises quite easily.
But ten years ago, I was most concerned about the possibility of a conflict of great powers in Europe and, above all, a potential clash with the Russian Federation. Democratic allies have a huge superiority in military capabilities and reserves (Russia's defense budget is less than $ 70 billion, that is, ten times less than NATO's, and this is at best). But the Russians have a decent industrial base, large reserves of raw materials, and they can mobilize people to work in factories and foundries.
NATO withdrew from Afghanistan more than a year ago. But the enormous needs of Ukrainians create such problems with the supply of military equipment for conducting military operations, which I did not suspect. In particular, we are talking about electronic products for high-precision weapons, modern drones, anti-ship cruise missiles and homing artillery ammunition, the need for which has grown dramatically. Despite the uncertain growth of the global economy, civilian firms are competing with Western armies, trying to get very important semiconductor chips for them – especially they need high-quality products, which are produced mainly in Taiwan.
Western automakers and heavy equipment manufacturers such as Caterpillar Inc. and General Motors Co are already facing shortages. Cement is in particular demand in the USA today, where large-scale projects are being launched within the framework of the infrastructure Law. But it will not be enough, because Ukraine will need it to recover.
Some analysts and compilers of simulation models of military operations are trying to predict where bottlenecks will arise. The greatest concern is the production of artillery pieces, rockets and shells, especially for howitzers. The stocks of shells for 155-mm howitzers, which have become the main striking force for Ukrainians, are running out the fastest. Analysts believe that Ukraine spends as much ammunition every month as America produced in a year before the conflict began.
The Ministry of Defense will continue to protect its reserves. But there are very few surplus stocks that are stored for an unforeseen event in excess of the norm provided for by American military plans. And we are talking not only about shells for howitzers, but also about high-precision missiles for HIMARS, which are also not enough.
The military industry is increasing production, using the experience of the American military-industrial complex at the beginning of World War II. Yale historian Paul Kennedy notes in his remarkable book on technology, organization and wartime production, Engineers of Victory, that the Allies eventually overtook the Hitler coalition in terms of production volumes.
We are far from the general mobilization of the early 40s, however, both large defense enterprises and many small manufacturers of high-tech systems (in particular, drones) are rapidly innovating and producing what Ukrainians will need in the coming months. But the number of new orders is growing, and in such an environment, another problem has arisen: an acute shortage of skilled workers at ammunition production enterprises.
When President Franklin Roosevelt delivered his memorable speech about the "arsenal of democracy" in 1940, the American economy was moving to a military track. Of course, it won't happen today. So in the current conditions, we will have to make both guns and oil.
Congress and the Pentagon have the capacity to do this. It's mostly money. American military assistance to Ukraine is very significant (more than $ 40 billion), but this is only a small part of the $850 billion US military budget. America's European partners (and Asian allies such as Japan and South Korea) will deliver almost the same amount of aid, although they have focused their efforts more on Kiev's humanitarian needs and economic recovery.
States on both sides of the Atlantic will supply certain combat systems (especially tanks and armored vehicles) and artillery shells. Western countries will have to guarantee the production stipulated by contracts, so defense firms will not be left with a broken trough if hostilities suddenly end (admittedly, this is not expected).
Yes, there will be certain difficulties in some global supply chains (electronics, building materials, a number of minerals), but in general it is clear that we are able to overtake the stumbling Russian economy in terms of production volumes. If we assume that China will continue to wisely refuse to throw Putin a lifeline in the form of military assistance, Russia will become more and more lagging behind the production capabilities of the West. The classic "American way of waging war", which led to victory in World War II, and then in the Cold War, indicates that the odds are in favor of Ukraine.