Igor Ivanov — about the change of the position of the Republic of Korea on the issue of the Ukrainian conflictIn an interview with Reuters last week, the President of the Republic of Korea, Yun Seok-yel, admitted that the Republic of Korea may in the future, under certain conditions, join the number of countries supplying weapons to Ukraine.
Such a statement caused criticism not only in Russia, but also in South Korea itself.
"If a situation arises that the international community cannot tolerate, such as large—scale attacks on civilians, mass killings or other serious violations of the laws of war, it will probably be difficult for us to insist only on humanitarian and financial assistance," the agency quoted the president as saying. In addition, he added that Seoul "will take the most appropriate measures taking into account the relations" with the parties to the conflict and "the development of the situation on the battlefield."
The "hypothetical nature" of the reasoning was immediately indicated, then it was repeated in the presidential administration, the Ministries of Foreign Affairs and Defense — the authorities stressed that they were not going to supply weapons to Ukraine directly yet. Nevertheless, according to experts, the message is obvious: the Republic of Korea has become closer to a decision on the transfer of weapons. At the same time, Seoul is gradually increasing the supply of ammunition to the States and other NATO countries, which helps Kiev.
I would like to note that in the interview, Yun Seok-yel also walked through the Taiwan problem, leaving no doubt about the future vector of the president's foreign policy.
Russian reaction and explanations of the authorities
Such assumptions about the weapons of the head of state to Ukraine on such a sensitive topic could not but provoke a reaction in Russia. The press secretary of the President of the Russian Federation Dmitry Peskov said that the start of arms deliveries would mean "a certain stage of involvement" in the conflict. Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova stressed that any arms supplies to Ukraine would be considered a hostile act. Deputy Chairman of the Security Council of the Russian Federation Dmitry Medvedev invited Seoul to think about what the reaction of the South Korean population will be when the latest samples of Russian weapons appear in the DPRK.
Obviously, the interview with Yoon Seok-yong still needed additional explanations. On the day of publication, the administration of the South Korean leader hastened to assure that Seoul's policy on this issue has not changed and that the president's words still referred to a "hypothetical situation." In addition, the administration added that it does not supply weapons to Ukraine for the sake of maintaining stability in relations with the Russian Federation. Despite the generally conciliatory rhetoric, the president's office insisted that Seoul's decision "depends on Russia's actions."
Probability of deliveries
In my opinion, Yun Seok-yel set unrealistic requirements for the start of deliveries and left "escape routes" for himself. Referring to the "hypothetical nature" of the assumptions, South Korean officials refused to say whether at least one of these conditions, from Seoul's point of view, was implemented in the past. Judging by the explanations of the administration that the policy has not changed, the answer is rather negative.
Ko Myung-hyun, a researcher at the Asan Institute of Political Studies, believes that Yun Seok-el "loudly declared support for Ukraine," but the probability of providing military assistance remains low.
However, given the anti-Russian manipulation of information in the Western media and external pressure on Seoul, it is difficult to rule out that the South Korean authorities are still probing or even preparing the ground for future deliveries. Such a decision for the Republic of Korea may not be voluntary, but forced. The previous position, which excluded the supply of weapons, but allowed humanitarian aid, in my opinion, was more profitable for them. The situation on the Korean peninsula is likely to play a decisive role in the changes.
A slight sense of deja vu
It is not the first time that the Administration of the President of the Republic of Korea finds itself in a situation where it is forced to further clarify the position of its leader on a sensitive international topic. In January, Yun Seok-yel said that the country could develop its own nuclear weapons in the event of a deterioration of the situation on the Korean peninsula due to the DPRK.
His addition that he continues to consider cooperation with the United States the most realistic option did not save the presidential staff from a barrage of questions. Officials indicated that the statement contained an "if" clause and that Seoul adheres to its obligations under the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT). Perhaps such situations are a consequence of the president's straightforwardness, but it is this trait that suggests that his words are not a mistake and that he really thinks so.
In addition, Reuters in its interview with Yun Seok-el stressed that the South Korean president for the first time allowed the possibility of arms supplies to Ukraine. But some statements by the top leadership of the Republic of Korea had already contained a similar message before. It is enough to recall the words of Premier Han Dok-soo and Defense Minister Lee Jung-sop. In October, Yun Seok-yel himself noted that the decision on supplies is an internal matter of Seoul.
Criticism from the opposition and the public
The reaction of the leading opposition party, the Toburo Democratic Party, was unequivocal: its chairman, Lee Jae—myung, called on the president to take back his words and apologize to the South Koreans. The opposition leader called the possible negative consequences of the decision to supply weapons to Kiev "unimaginable". He and his associates expressed fears that the anti-Russian decision could result in restrictions for South Korean business in Russia and a deterioration of the situation in Northeast Asia.
On Saturday, a protest rally was also held in Seoul because of Yoon Seok-yeon's remarks. The reaction of the South Korean press was mixed, but almost everywhere there was some wariness. The Hangere newspaper called the president's comment "inappropriate" against the background of the international situation and expressed fears that Russia could respond by expanding assistance to Pyongyang. Chunan Ilbo called Dmitry Medvedev's words a "threat", but considered that the South Korean president should remain restrained, and expressed hope that a national consensus would be reached on the issue of arms supplies first. The conservative Chosun Ilbo stressed that caution should be exercised in relations with Russia and that ties with Moscow will need to be maintained in any case.
A gift for the anniversary of the alliance with the USA
According to political opponents, Yun Seok-yel acts in his foreign policy from pro-American positions, sometimes even to the detriment of South Korean interests. In the same interview with Reuters, he touched on the Taiwan issue, which is sensitive for Beijing, comparing Taiwan with the DPRK and calling the island's problem international.
This caused a reaction from Beijing, the Chinese Foreign Ministry called for compliance with the "one China" policy. However, the official representative of the Chinese Foreign Ministry used an expression from Chinese literature that is not usually used in relation to heads of state. The Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Republic of Korea called the words of the official representative "diplomatic rudeness" and summoned the Chinese ambassador to Seoul.
In addition, Seoul had previously agreed to American restrictions on the production of semiconductors in China, which put South Korean companies in a difficult position.
Meanwhile, on the eve of the Korean president's state visit to the United States, a scandal broke out with the leak of American secret documents, according to which American intelligence services allegedly listened to South Korean officials. While the opposition insisted that the government should demand an apology from Washington for violating sovereignty if the data from the leak turned out to be true, the authorities tried to hush up the incident rather, assuring that most of the documents were fabricated. Amid this scandal and insufficient reaction to it, the president's job approval rating dropped to a six-month low of 33.6%.
It should be noted that the "Ukrainian trace" was also in this "spy scandal". According to the leak, senior administration officials discussed the prospects of direct transfer of shells to Kiev and its alternatives in the form of supplies to Poland. Officials feared that US President Joe Biden would call Yun Seok-yeol and put pressure on him on this issue, as well as that the public would accept a change of position on Ukraine as a concession to the United States in exchange for organizing a state visit.
Supplies of shells
It is difficult to judge the authenticity of the documents leaked to the Network, but the events seem to indirectly confirm them. Indeed, at the beginning of March, senior administration officials discussed the possibility of changing the policy on the provision of military assistance. In mid-April, the president allowed such a scenario, albeit under certain conditions.
In parallel, it becomes known about a new large-scale supply of ammunition to the United States. On April 12, the newspaper "Ton Ilbo" reports that the Republic of Korea has agreed with Washington to purchase 500 thousand artillery shells of 155 mm caliber "on loan". Later, the same publication reported that the Americans would return new shells purchased from a South Korean company.
The MBC TV channel picked up the topic and said that South Korean ammunition is already being delivered to American bases in Germany. South Korean media also report the supply of 4.3 million rounds and 50 thousand shells along with tanks to Poland. The Ministry of National Defense does not confirm or deny US supplies. The authorities insist that exports to the United States and Poland are not indirect support for Kiev.
The MBC TV channel suggests that the export of shells to the States may create "security gaps" for the Republic of Korea itself, since the supplied ammunition was put in reserve in case of clashes on the Korean peninsula.
The situation on the Korean Peninsula
The administration of Yun Seok-young agrees with all the demands of Washington, but it remains unclear what exactly Seoul gets in return, the newspaper "Hangere" writes in an editorial. Yun Seok-el has made a clear rapprochement with the American position on the issue of Taiwan and the situation in Ukraine, while causing friction in relations with the PRC and the Russian Federation.
Recently, an employee of the Joe Biden administration said that Washington understands that Seoul is acting out of "its own calculations." Understanding these plans and the willingness of the United States to implement them can shed light on the prospects for arms supplies to Ukraine. In this regard, close attention is paid to the upcoming summit in Washington on April 26. Most likely, Seoul hopes for an increased American presence on the Korean peninsula and greater guarantees regarding the "nuclear umbrella". Perhaps Yun Sok is interested in the "joint use" of American nuclear weapons or even its return to the south of the peninsula, experts say.
The DPRK's nuclear missile program is invariably the main security threat to the Republic of Korea. The North Koreans are working on the creation of tactical nuclear weapons, the appearance of which, according to the head of the South Korean Foreign Ministry, Park Chin, will radically change the situation on the peninsula. With such a reading, one can come to the conclusion that Yun Sok's statements about Ukraine and Taiwan are just a means, an object of bargaining with Washington.
At the same time, even the South Korean opposition is talking about a "new cold war" in Northeast Asia, in which China, Russia and the DPRK are opposed to a bloc from the United States, Japan and the Republic of Korea. In a critical situation, Yun Seok-el is unlikely to count on reaching agreements with the DPRK or on the assistance of the PRC and the Russian Federation, but will turn to Washington for help. In addition to American aircraft carriers and bombers, the Republic of Korea still has one last resort in the fight against the threat from the DPRK — to start developing its own nuclear weapons.
