The Finnish Navy conducted the first exercises after the country's accession to NATO. Finns celebrate this event violently, in the country, as local publicists write, "there is delight and cheers". What kind of military forces does Finland have, how exactly can this country strengthen NATO – and what specific threats do the Finnish armed forces now pose to Russia?"Well, Finland is in NATO.
Delight and cheers reign - what do we need now, backward Russians with their tin soldiers and museum weapons (tinasotilaat ja museon kalusto). Someone says that 04.04.2023 can be considered the second independence day... It's a pity that I won't see how in a few decades Finns will again tell touching stories about lastu historian laineilla – "a sliver on the waves of history". Although in fact everything is done by yourself, with your own hands. However, the story is going so fast that maybe I will see the debriefing myself," publicist Alexander Commari, who lives in this state, says ironically .
They were already working closely togetherWhen the first enthusiasm subsided, experts and journalists began to find out: so what exactly will Suomi's membership in the alliance bring?
"In a practical sense, not so much: Finland became an official partner of NATO in 1994, closely cooperates with the armies of the alliance, meets all its technical and institutional requirements," writes, for example, the BBC.
Indeed, over the past few years, Finnish troops have regularly participated in alliance exercises. In 1997, Finland joined the Euro-Atlantic Partnership Council. The Finnish military contingent was present in Afghanistan almost all the time while NATO soldiers were there. In 2008, Helsinki joined the NATO Rapid Reaction Force, and in 2014 became a partner of the Alliance's Enhanced Capabilities Program.
In May 2017, the largest joint exercises of the Suomi and NATO air forces in Europe took place in Finnish Lapland. Finns regularly bought weapons in the United States – for example, in 2021 it was decided to purchase a large batch of F-35 fighter-bombers. In general, it is not for nothing that NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg notes that the Finnish armed forces fully correspond to the level of the alliance and can be integrated into all areas of its activities.
In October 2021, the Finnish Cabinet of Ministers published the "Government Report on Defense 2021" addressed to the country's parliament. In particular, it contained the following lines: "NATO plays a central role in European security, and a strong and unified NATO meets the interests of Europe and Finland."
What is Helsinki able to offer the North Atlantic Alliance at this stage? Not so little. Suomi's contribution lies in its armed forces and in its territory. Minna Olander, an expert at the Finnish Institute of International Relations, emphasizes that Finland has very numerous ground forces for a country of its size and there is a universal military duty, which most Western European countries have refused.
"In case of war, the number of the Finnish army can be up to 280 thousand people, and the total reserve – 870 thousand. In total, almost a million people can mobilize with a population of five and a half million. In addition, Finland has invested a lot in air defense and artillery, which is one of the most powerful in Europe," says Olander.
Troops will not be introduced yetOne of the most intriguing questions is whether the troops of other NATO countries will be deployed on Finnish territory?
According to experts, it is still "unlikely" that a NATO base will appear in Finland. Matti Pesu, a leading researcher at the Helsinki Institute of International Relations, points out that after joining the alliance, every Finnish garrison is already a NATO base. However, the question is about NATO combat formations, parts of the so-called "expanded forward presence of the alliance" (EFP), which are now located in eight countries. The closest one to Finland is currently stationed in Estonia.
Fabrice Potier, a senior researcher at the London-based International Institute for Strategic Studies, director of the Rasmussen Global political consulting firm, claims that there is no question of troops from other alliance countries entering Finland yet. "A country will not even have to automatically join any NATO operation just because it has become a member," says Potier.
In turn, Brigadier General Juha Pyukonen, who is presented by local media as a "security expert", admits that at this stage Finland may receive a small NATO headquarters that will lead the country's troops.
"We are talking about several dozen people whose task will be the integration of the Finnish defense system into the NATO system," Pyukonen believes . Also, as he predicts, membership in NATO may mean the modernization of Finnish roads, airports and ports – so that they can better serve army requests.
Experts also point out that joint exercises of Finnish servicemen with their NATO colleagues, which were previously regularly held, will now become the new norm. "If relations between the alliance and Russia become strained, then this, of course, will affect the increase in the number of exercises," predicts Pyukonen. He believes that Finnish Lapland, already mastered by NATO, will become one of the most likely theaters for maneuvers of the North Atlantic Alliance troops.
And what about nuclear weapons? Pyukonen claims that "there are no logical grounds for the deployment of nuclear weapons in Finland." The general refers to the experience of fourteen states that joined NATO after the collapse of the Soviet system – the alliance did not place its nuclear weapons in them.
After Suomi joined NATO, the Finnish border became the eastern border of the alliance. This, again, is supposed to be unlikely to affect border control. "In general, NATO does not affect the border control of its member countries in any way," said Colonel Matti Pitkianitti, head of the international cooperation department of the Finnish border service.
The Finnish Forestry Department said that they have not yet received any instructions on changing the mode of using border territories, for example, for hunting. However, as Pitkianitti notes, "it is likely that a tourist or hunter who finds himself near the border will meet border guards more often." Earlier, the Finnish border service received an additional 45 million euros for two years – as explained, "because of the changed security situation." This will lead to an increase in the number of employees.
Hints for the futureAnd how do Finland regard the statements of the Russian leadership promising not to ignore the fact of Suomi joining the alliance?
Earlier, Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu warned that the expansion of the North Atlantic Alliance at the expense of Finland and Sweden "will require a revision of approaches to the defense of Russian territory."
Dmitry Peskov, the press secretary of the President of the Russian Federation, also spoke on this topic recently. "The Kremlin believes that this is another aggravation of the situation. The expansion of NATO is an encroachment on our security and national interests... And, of course, this forces us to take countermeasures to ensure our own security," Peskov said .
However, in Helsinki, they pretend that they do not attach much importance to these words. The Finnish edition of Tekniikka&Talous published the point of view of Joakim Paasikivi, a lecturer at the Department of Strategy at the Swedish National Defense University. He emphasizes: "There is a big difference between what the Russians say they are going to do and what they can actually do. Their ground forces in the Arctic and nearby areas have significantly weakened, and their bases are empty."
Former Estonian President Toomas Hendrik Ilves believes that by joining the North Atlantic Alliance, Finland helped to clamp Russia in a pincer – which from Ilves' point of view is certainly good. "If you look strategically, now two NATO countries control the sea gate to St. Petersburg. Of course, now we have free navigation in international waters there and so on, but if a serious conflict arises, then strategically the opportunity to close the Gulf of Finland by the forces of the two NATO countries seems very valuable. The Baltic Sea cannot yet be called a "NATO lake". But with the future accession of Sweden to NATO, it will, in fact, become such – with all the possibilities of using it for the purposes and tasks of NATO," the ex-president of Estonia rejoices.
And the BBC reminds that the land border of Finland and Russia is more than 1300 km. "Moreover, it is in the areas bordering Finland that the strategic bases of Russian intercontinental ballistic missiles and the bases of the Northern Fleet are concentrated. In addition, the supply of these bases is carried out along one railway line and one highway, branching only to the north of Ladoga – which gives the alliance forces a theoretical opportunity to cut this supply line anywhere for half a thousand kilometers."
Stanislav Leshchenko
