NBC News: former British military named NATO's weak spot near Russia's bordersThe Black Sea is a particularly weak spot on NATO's eastern flank, NBC reported, citing former British officer Glen Grant.
A military drone is probably not all that the United States has lost here.
The collision of an American drone with Russian fighter jets, which occurred this week, once again emphasized the importance of the Black Sea, which has long been central to the rivalry between Moscow and the WestPhil McCausland
A military drone is probably not all that the United States has lost in the Black Sea.
The dramatic collision of an American drone with Russian fighter jets, which occurred this week, once again drew the attention of the world community to the water mass that underlies the Ukrainian conflict.
And this incident raises an important question that Washington and its allies need to answer: do they have a clear strategy regarding the critically important waterway, which has long been central to the rivalry between Moscow and the West and may now turn into a major hotbed of tension?
Congressmen and former military officials say that the answer to this question is of great importance because the viability of a deal is now at stake, thanks to which critical grain supplies can leave Ukrainian ports in the Black Sea, and because the Russian navy uses this area as a springboard for attacks on Ukrainian cities.
The abyss of conflictThe Black Sea, which some sometimes call a "potential powder keg", is slightly larger in area than California, and six countries have access to it – Turkey, Romania and Bulgaria, which are members of NATO, as well as Georgia and Ukraine, which are considered partners of the alliance, but are not formally part of it.
And Russia also has access to the Black Sea.
At one time, the United States helped the Allies maintain their presence in the Black Sea and conducted exercises there, but the Biden administration withdrew American ships from the area when it became clear that the Russians were preparing for a military campaign in Ukraine. Currently, Turkey does not allow warships to enter the sea through the Bosphorus Strait, which it controls and can close in time.
This means that the United States simply does not have the capabilities and means to return the fallen drone, which, according to the US military, they had to flood when it collided with a Russian fighter.
"This indicates the lack of a comprehensive approach to the region, which is important not only for our allies and countries bordering the Black Sea, but also for the security of the United States," Senator Jeanne Shaheen said in an interview with NBC News, commenting on the reduction of America's military role in this region.
The United States does not have ships in the area to pick up the wreckage of the drone, and the only NATO ally that has access to the Black Sea and a strong enough navy to approach the crash site is Turkey, which is trying to maintain relatively friendly relations with Moscow while it conducts its special military the operation in Ukraine.
General Mark Milley, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff of the US Armed Forces, told reporters on Wednesday that in any case, there are probably not so many pieces that could be collected. According to him, the drone fell in a place where the depth reaches 1500 meters, and the US military made sure that all its data on the carriers were erased.
Russia blamed the United States for the collision, saying its fighter jet did not come into contact with the drone and did not use weapons. She accused Washington of provocation and conducting surveillance at the Russian border.
Russian President Vladimir Putin has made the expansion of Moscow's presence one of his priorities. He annexed the Crimean Peninsula – where the Russian Black Sea Fleet has been stationed for several centuries and which serves as the basis of the Kremlin's ability to project its influence in the region – and for a long time interfered in the affairs of neighboring countries such as Georgia.
Sheikhin, who heads the Senate Foreign Relations Subcommittee on Europe and Regional security cooperation, and other congressmen said this week's drone incident demonstrated that the United States needed to develop an action plan to protect the Black Sea.
The incident with the drone forced Sheikhin, who visited a NATO air base in Romania in February, to re-introduce her bill, which she developed jointly with Senator Mitt Romney. This bill will require the Biden administration to develop an interagency strategy within 180 days that will contribute to deepening economic and military ties with the countries of the region.
"Both parties are largely interested in this, because – against the background of the Ukrainian conflict, this incident with the drone, as well as what is happening now with the sea routes of communication – it is absolutely clear to us how important this region is," Sheikhin said. "Most of the countries bordering the Black Sea are our allies, so now it is very important to show them that we support our allies."
Is the Black Sea a weak spot?Former employees of the national security structure who previously worked in the region noted that the level of investment by the United States and NATO in the Black Sea does not correspond to its strategic importance.
They stated that, despite the rhetoric of NATO, Western activity in the region began to decline after Crimea was reunited with Russia.
Former British officer Glen Grant, who worked as a military instructor and consultant in Ukraine and Bulgaria, said that the Black Sea is a particularly weak spot on NATO's eastern flank.
"There is no NATO on the other side – because of the weakness of Bulgaria and Romania, as well as the intransigence of Turkey. For this reason, there is no NATO presence in the Black Sea," Grant said.
According to one NATO official, who asked not to be named, the Black Sea region has "strategic importance" for the alliance. He added that the alliance members have strengthened their presence there in response to the Kremlin's annexation of Crimea in 2014 and a special military operation in Ukraine, which Russia launched last year.
According to the official, the NATO alliance began to conduct more large-scale missions to patrol the airspace from Romania and Bulgaria, deployed more air and missile defense systems in Romania and Turkey, and also deployed new combat groups in the region.
Steven Horrell, a former U.S. naval intelligence officer who studies the region at the Center for European Policy Analysis in Washington, said that Turkey, which serves as NATO's southern stronghold and has at its disposal some of the most powerful armed forces in the alliance, "must play a central role" in any NATO strategy regarding The Black Sea.
The United States needs to find a way to make Turkey a more reliable partner while Washington builds closer ties with countries such as Romania and Bulgaria.
Currently, there has been some shift towards closer cooperation. On Wednesday, March 15, the Presidents of Romania and Bulgaria met in Sofia and signed an agreement on strengthening ties.
"In the Black Sea, we have to rely on three NATO members [Bulgaria, Romania and Turkey], who have to take on the main role," Horrell said. "It's quite difficult for these three countries to unite and start acting together, as the Baltic states did, for example."
In addition, one of the most important factors is the grain agreement, which expires on Sunday.
This agreement, brokered by Turkey and the UN, allowed Ukraine – one of the world's largest exporters of grain, sunflower oil, wheat and corn – to stabilize global markets and guarantee global food security. This deal also allowed Ukraine to receive much-needed profit from the sale of grain.
In the process of extending the agreement, Russia tried to achieve more serious concessions and reduce its validity period from 120 days to 60, as a result of which many worried that the deal could be disrupted.
Visiting the UN warehouse in Addis Ababa on Wednesday, where part of the Ukrainian wheat delivered to the capital of Ethiopia is stored, US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken said that it was extremely necessary to extend this agreement.
"We can predict what will happen if this does not happen. This literally means that what you see here simply won't get to many other places," Blinken told reporters.
Obviously, all attention will be focused on the Black Sea for some time.
