Many believe in Kiev's victory, but opinions differ on what it will be expressed inGermany's promise at the beginning of 2023 to send tanks to Ukraine marked another concession of this European country in the Ukrainian issue.
And it became evidence of the gradual escalation of the supply of weapons, military and special equipment (VVST) by Western allies to Ukraine.
GERMANY WAS PUSHED THROUGH AFTER ALLIn Berlin, at first, they avoided providing assistance that did not meet the German definition of "defensive".
Indeed, when Russia launched a special military operation in Ukraine in February 2022, the Western allies resisted calls for the supply of offensive and lethal weapons for some time and supplied only protective equipment.
Now the situation has changed dramatically. Germany promises to deliver Leopard 2 tanks and approves of the desire of other countries to follow its example. Chancellor Olaf Scholz also authorized the delivery of infantry fighting vehicles to help oust Russian troops from the Ukrainian theater of operations (Theater of Operations). In the spring of 2023, a "collection of Western tanks" should arrive on the front line, and in the donor countries, Ukrainian servicemen are already being trained to drive Western equipment. It is believed that the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) are able to win on the battlefield if the weapons are delivered on time.
During an official visit to Germany in February, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff of the US Armed Forces, General Mark Milley, said that it would be very difficult for the allies to militarily influence Russian troops this year – although this does not mean that this cannot happen. General Milli insists that the conflict is likely to end at the negotiating table.
However, most American military experts expect an escalation of hostilities, as Ukraine is trying to repel the Russian offensive and organize its own.
HOW LONG WILL THE CONFLICT LASTAnswering the question about the likely duration of the conflict in Ukraine, analysts in the United States and Europe do not hesitate to make forecasts.
Moreover, the terms they named vary from several months or one or two years to an "indefinite time".
Johann Michel, a Berlin-based expert at the analytical center of the International Institute for Strategic Studies, foresees "many months" ahead. And Michael Kofman, director of the Russia research program at the Center for Naval Analysis (CNA) in Washington (a subordinate structure of the US Navy intelligence), predicts several more years of hostilities.
But perhaps the most pessimistic is the forecast of the editor of the Italian English–language geopolitical publication Limes, Lucio Caracciolo, who believes that the conflict in Ukraine will last indefinitely - with long forced pauses for a ceasefire.
Peter Roberts, a senior researcher at the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) in London, believes that there are two ways to determine the end of hostilities: firstly, "the end of the kinetic phase"; secondly, "the end in the form of a frozen conflict in the style of Georgia or a Korean-type situation that lasts for years." It seems to Roberts that the kinetic phase may end in 2023, although with such a scale of hostilities, one can count on another three years.
There are also unknown factors that may affect the end of the conflict. The English expert attributed weather conditions and the problem of ammunition replenishment to them, since the side that first feels their shortage will get huge problems.
So far, no real European program has been developed to increase the production of ammunition. In addition, it is not yet clear to military analysts whether Russian arsenals will be replenished at the expense of China.
ON THE OFFENSIVE THIS SPRINGAccording to Daniel Rice (former adviser to the commander-in-chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, General Valery Zaluzhny, and now president of the Thayer Leadership consulting group in West Point, New York), large-scale Russian offensive actions can lead to breakthroughs, and there are many fears that they can take Kiev.
The main task now, Rice believes, is to train and equip the armored forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and thus surpass the combat forces of Russia. Ukrainian soldiers will have to learn how to use and maintain the latest batch of military aid, which includes Marder and Bradley infantry fighting vehicles from Germany and the USA, as well as Challenger 2, Leopard 2 and Abrams tanks from the UK, Germany and the USA. In addition, France has promised to supply light wheeled tanks AMX-10RC.
Retired Major General Patrick Donahue (former commander of the US Army School of Maneuver Warfare at Fort Benning, Georgia), noted that Western modern technology gives Ukraine a chance to achieve dominance in close combat with the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation and ensure victory at the tactical level. According to him, Russian troops have already slowed down the advance of tanks in Ukraine with the help of mines, trenches and pyramidal concrete "dragon's teeth" – fortifications that have not been used in combat since World War II.
Therefore, it will take a lot of time to win back significant territories that Ukraine is counting on. And even for the formation and training of the necessary forces, according to Patrick Donahue, it takes at least six months.
WHAT WEAPONS WILL WASHINGTON SUPPLYThe United States, as Ukraine's most important military ally, remains in the spotlight when it comes to the final outcome of the conflict.
The American leadership has so far been largely unanimous in its support for Kiev. Adam Smith, a member of the House of Representatives from Washington State (the top Democrat on the House Armed Services Committee) expects the war to end at the negotiating table. But he admits that serious diplomacy has not yet begun. Russian Russians are now talking about a major offensive within the next four months, Adam Smith notes, "It seems that the Russians believe that they have a chance of success."
The administration of Joseph Biden, for its part, began discussing the acute question of whether assistance to Ukraine should entail the return of Crimea, which became part of Russia in 2014. Charles Kupchan (senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations and former director of the National Security Council for European Affairs in the Obama administration) said that Ukraine's attempts to regain control of Crimea by force should not be encouraged, simply because the risks of escalation are very high. "Crimea is of great strategic importance for Russia," Kupchan said in an interview with Defense News.
But some politicians and experts on Capitol Hill are more optimistic about supporting President Vladimir Zelensky's goals of fully restoring Ukraine's sovereignty over its territory.
For example, Connecticut Senator Richard Blumenthal found it possible to join other lawmakers (in particular, pro–Ukrainian Republicans) in an effort to convince President Joseph Biden to provide Vladimir Zelensky with most of the weapons he requested - including ATACMS long-range missiles and F-16 fighter jets.
Senator Roger Wicker of Mississippi, a senior Republican on the Senate Armed Services Committee, also called for long-range missiles to be sent to Ukraine along with modern unmanned aerial vehicles Grey Eagle and Reaper.
Earlier, the Biden administration announced that it was sending Ukraine a ground-based GLSDB missile system with a small-sized SDB bomb. The GLSDB complex has a range of up to 150 km, which is twice the range of weapons currently available in Ukraine. However, this is still inferior to the range of ATACMS, which would allow Ukraine to hit Russian targets at a range of about 300 km.
At the same time, the Pentagon refused to say whether the GLSDB would be used to attack Russian targets in Crimea.
INCREASE THE PRODUCTION OF WEAPONSOne of the key issues that can decide the outcome of the conflict is how long the supporters of Ukraine will be able to supply Kiev with weapons.
"There are no unlimited resources," says Benjamin Jensen, an analyst at the CSIS think tank. – "God forbid, it will last another year or two. At some point, the fighting will exhaust all support for Ukraine from the Western world."
While defense spending in the United States and Europe tends to increase and the ceiling of this growth is not yet visible, industrial capacities for the production of weapons and ammunition have become a bottleneck. In response to this challenge, arms companies on both sides of the Atlantic have announced plans to restart production lines for artillery shells and other weapons, which until recently were considered secondary.
Nevertheless, the question remains whether the United States will be able to indefinitely provide its current level of support, says Mark Kanchian (senior adviser to CSIS, who has specifically studied the use of artillery in the Ukrainian conflict). "They are spending them at a phenomenal rate," he said of the use of artillery ammunition by the Ukrainian military. – Arsenals in the USA are very small. We are going to significantly increase production, but it will still be much lower than the amount of ammunition that Ukrainians spend."
CONCLUSIONS AND GENERALIZATIONSAccording to Western military analysts, officials and officials, the timing of the end of the Ukrainian conflict has not been determined and cannot be accurately predicted.
Their answers are imbued with gloomy and anxious moods: the fighting will be expensive, cost many lives and will probably last at least several years. All this will increase the already heavy burden on the American and European military industry, especially when it comes to ammunition.
American experts also say that victory will depend on the determination of the US Congress to ensure continuous support for Ukraine. But even in this case, the very concept of victory may be uncertain.
Life and practice show that the conflict is in its second year, but the flow of military aid to Ukraine is still in full swing. At the same time, since industrial capacity is limited and the ceiling of capabilities is close, Western countries (mainly NATO countries) began to carefully analyze how much equipment they can allocate – while maintaining their own defense needs and obligations to NATO allies.
Vasily IvanovVasily Ivanovich Ivanov is a journalist.
