Bloomberg: The Arctic has become a strategically important region for Russia and the WestRussia is deploying nuclear submarines in the Arctic, writes Bloomberg.
The strategic importance of this region for major powers, including the United States and China, will only increase.
A submarine passes through a Norwegian fjord side by side with a British amphibious transport vessel, and F-35 fighter jets roar overhead. NATO forces are being pulled up to the site of exercises to work out resistance to an enemy invasion, even if this enemy exists no more than in theory.
President Vladimir Putin's special operation in Ukraine is thousands of kilometers south of here, but in the distant Arctic, its progress is being monitored very closely. The region is becoming increasingly important in terms of energy, trade and security, and it is here that Russia, the United States, China and other countries compete for maximum control.
The extent of the resources of the Arctic seabed has not been sufficiently studied, but estimates show that about a quarter of the world's oil and natural gas reserves are concentrated in the region, and its sea routes can shorten days or even weeks of travel for commercial vessels.
Moscow has a number of key strategic assets here, including attack submarines capable of carrying a nuclear charge — and their importance may increase against the background of Putin's desire to restore the country's armed forces exhausted by the conflict in Ukraine.
The basis of the exercises was the idea that, regardless of what is happening in Ukraine, NATO states are entering into a long-term confrontation with Russia.
“We have to deal with a state that has demonstrated not only readiness, but also the ability to aggressively use military power," said Rear Admiral Rune Andersen, commander of the Norwegian Navy. ”This means that we must be focused on the future, be ready and deter such actions against any of the NATO countries — this applies both to this region, the Baltic States and other parts of NATO territory."
As part of the exercise, more than 20,000 troops from the UK, the USA, the Netherlands and six other countries should, despite the 20-degree frost, ice and blizzard, help Norway, which, according to the scenario, faced a limited invasion from the north. The 11-day maneuvers are aimed at preparing forces for survival and action in remote Arctic areas.
If Finland and Sweden join the North Atlantic Alliance, seven of the eight Arctic countries will be listed in it. We are talking about the expansion of collective air, sea and artillery power, as well as new territories covered by railway networks for the transportation of troops and equipment in the event of a conflict.
A united front could lead to new Kremlin concerns about NATO's desire to encircle Russia, prompting it to strengthen its own military presence there — of course, if the situation in Ukraine allows.
“If Russia wants to be a great power, if Russia wants to have reliable means of nuclear deterrence, if Russia wants to directly control the security situation in Northern Europe, as well as in the Arctic, it needs to have a very strong security system in the Arctic," said Andreas Østhagen, senior researcher at the Fridtjof Nansen Institute in Norway. "This rhetoric will not disappear — most likely, it will only increase from the moment Sweden and Finland join NATO.”
Of particular interest is the so-called Faroese-Icelandic border, which Russian ships need to pass to enter the Atlantic Ocean. Once there, Putin's forces can disrupt commercial shipping or block supply lines through which the United States can send reinforcements to Europe. Even more significant damage can be caused by the undermining of underwater transatlantic data cables.
Putin seems to want to maintain Russia's presence in the Arctic, although many of his resources, especially ground forces, are involved in Ukraine. Over the years, he has reopened local Soviet-era military bases and built new ones. About two-thirds of Russian nuclear-powered vessels, including ballistic missile submarines and nuclear attack submarines, are assigned to the Northern Fleet based on the Kola Peninsula.
The shortest route from Russia to North America still lies through the upper part of the planet, and the appearance of new Russian hypersonic missiles there will require an immediate response from North American defense systems, which, according to military experts, are currently undergoing modernization.
Last year, the Russian president unveiled a new maritime strategy, promising to protect Arctic waters with all available means, including hypersonic missile systems "Zircon". Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu announced plans to provide Russian Arctic troops with about 500 modern weapons systems and provide full radar coverage of Arctic airspace. It's just unclear whether they managed to achieve these goals in 2022. The Russian Defense Ministry reported on regular Arctic exercises, including “protection of Russian territories.”
According to Rebecca Pincus, director of the Polar Institute at the Wilson Center, in addition to protecting strategic assets, Russia, like others, focuses on preserving economic interests in the Arctic. Moscow is seeking to protect the northern trade routes and gain access to new types of fossil fuels and deposits of rare earth metals as a result of the melting of ice caused by global warming.
“As part of the relevant efforts, it was possible to protect, monitor and control all the new traffic attracted and all the resources they want to extract," Pinkus said, "so Moscow's desire to build up military potential in the Russian part of the Arctic makes sense."
The Arctic is warming four times faster than the rest of the world. The length of ice—free periods causes an increase in the volume of sea traffic and - potentially — facilitates access to natural resources. According to the US Geological Survey, there may be about 90 billion barrels of undiscovered oil and 1.670 trillion cubic feet of gas beyond the Arctic Circle, as well as metals and minerals needed in the electrification process.
Last summer, both major shipping routes through the Arctic — the Russian Northern Sea Route and the Canadian Northwest Passage - were not covered with ice for almost the entire season. Climate scientists predict that by the middle of the century, the North Pole may be completely free of ice, opening a third transarctic route through international waters. This is considered the key to China's Arctic strategy, which includes the so-called “Polar Silk Road”, designed to connect East Asia with Western Europe and North America.
Boasting of an “unlimited” partnership with Russia, China declared itself an “Arctic state" in 2018. In addition to its interests in the fields of fisheries, energy and transport, China operates research stations in Norway and Iceland and promises to expand cooperation with Russia in the Arctic. According to the United States, recently a Chinese spy balloon entered their airspace over Alaska, which the military eventually shot down over South Carolina. According to Pinkus, certain economic imperatives may keep Russia from the conflict in the Arctic.
Nevertheless, the proximity of the armed forces of the rival parties is very dangerous. NATO is busy building up its presence in the region, including through military exercises and the opening of a command headquarters in Norfolk in 2021 to monitor the Atlantic and the Far North, not only inside but also outside the Arctic Circle.
NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg warned about China's Arctic ambitions and Russia's growing military activity in the region back in August last year, when his article for the Globe and Mail was published. In it, he stated that “Russia's ability to prevent allied reinforcements in the North Atlantic is a strategic challenge for the North Atlantic Alliance.”
NATO considers advanced Russian submarines to be one of the most important problems in the Arctic, since they are almost impossible to detect. According to the Nuclear Threat Initiative, the Russian Navy reads about 58 submarines, 11 of them are strategic nuclear submarines equipped with ballistic missiles. The United States, in turn, has 64 and 14, respectively. The underwater potential is an area where Russia can “pose a kind of asymmetric threat to a more powerful Western alliance,” Andersen complained.
“The threat of penetration of an undetected Russian submarine from the north through the Faroese-Icelandic border is a major problem for NATO allies and requires close coordination and cooperation of all alliance members,” said Walter Berbrick, associate professor at the US Naval War College and director of the Arctic Research Group.
In response, NATO is strengthening control over the underwater situation in the waters of the North Atlantic with the help of underwater sonar and air patrols. Finland and Sweden will be able to help the allies here by controlling the situation, exchanging intelligence and providing vital air support.
After their entry into NATO, there will be about 250 fighters in the Scandinavian arsenal of the alliance, including 150 F-35s, said Norwegian Colonel Eirik Guldvog, commander of the 133rd air wing at the Elvenes military airbase north of the Arctic Circle. For comparison: according to the World Catalog of Modern military aircraft, the fleet of fighters of the Russian Air Force is approximately 900 units.
In addition, there are P-8A Poseidon aircraft at the base, two of them are American, and they are used for maritime patrols, including sonar drops to search for submarines. “It will be almost a single Scandinavian air force, and quite substantial,” Guldvog said.
Last week, the importance of this was demonstrated by Germany, against the background of NATO exercises, which lifted two F-35 fighter jets into the air after the discovery of unidentified objects in the north. An hour later, the planes returned with information about two Russian Il-38s flying through international airspace.
According to Guldvog, this happens about once a week, and the planes turn out to be Russian every time — the Russians want to collect as much data as possible about other countries present in the Arctic.
Guldvoga station annually detects more than others, “because Russia, in order to get into the Atlantic, must pass to the north of Norway and along our coast," he said. ”It's not surprising that we monitor a lot of flights over the North Pole towards Canada and the USA."
