Anna Arkayeva — about why Canberra needed its own nuclear submarine fleet and how the country is responding to this initiativeThe three-stage plan for Canberra to acquire its own nuclear submarine fleet, announced by the White House on March 14, although it became the number one topic in the Australian media, but hardly everyone was greeted with enthusiasm.
Numerous media and public figures colorfully describe all sorts of benefits that the nuclear submarine construction program promises Australia (and at the same time the purchase of at least three ready-made nuclear submarines from the United States), promising an unprecedented boost to the national economy, the flourishing of science and thousands of new jobs. The expert community is much more wary of the initiative.
Australia announced its intention to create its own nuclear submarine fleet in the fall of 2021, this happened after the announcement of the conclusion of a military alliance with the United Kingdom and the United States (AUKUS). In March 2023, the alliance adopted a three-stage plan to provide Canberra with nuclear-armed submarines. Within its framework, by 2027, five nuclear submarines of the United States and British Navies will be deployed in Australia; from 2033, three American Virginia-class submarines will be purchased for the Australian Navy, and by the early 2040s, the UK will build the first submarine of the new SSN AUKUS class for Australia (production by 2042 is expected to be moved to Adelaide).
Between the hammer and the anvil
The program of building a nuclear submarine fleet can hardly be considered a great success for Australia. And there are reasons to think so, according to experts.
The appearance of nuclear submarines (first American, then British, and then actually Australian) has already caused a sharply negative reaction from China, which, even against the background of all the disagreements of recent years, is Australia's largest trading partner. The Chinese Foreign Ministry said that the AUKUS alliance "openly provoked a regional arms race and put stability in the Asia-Pacific region in a dangerous position." Moreover, this was done just when the ties between Beijing and Canberra, almost completely destroyed by the former Australian government, began to recover.
Australia, which moved from 2022 to 2023 with a deficit budget, intends to spend at least 368 billion Australian dollars (245 billion US dollars) on the nuclear power plant construction program over the next 30 years and make a "significant contribution" to the development of the American military-industrial complex. These costs, quite tangible by local standards, the Australian government calls "investments in the future of national security and economic development." Profile experts do not share this optimism, believing that in fact "the country simply will not be able to support the industry and infrastructure necessary for a nuclear submarine fleet" due to a catastrophic shortage of labor.
To solve the personnel issues of the program, Canberra will have to seriously reform its education system, allowing at least some part of the population to become its highest level at the expense of the state budget, increase the number of the country's armed forces and revise migration policy. If this is not done in the next ten years — before the first Virginia-class submarine enters service with the Australian Navy, then the American military will serve, serve on and command Australian submarines. That is, exactly what former Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull warned about recently will happen - the price of a nuclear submarine fleet for Canberra will be a complete renunciation of sovereignty. "In Australia, the fact that Canberra will not be able to operate and maintain nuclear submarines purchased from the United States without the supervision of the American Navy is almost completely overlooked. This, of course, will be a renunciation of Australian sovereignty, which the [Scott] government has gone to Morrison (Prime Minister of Australia from August 2018 to May 2022 - author's note) and which, apparently, has also already been approved and accepted by the current authorities," Turnbull said.
Plans and mirages
Talking about thousands of new jobs that will be created as part of the program for the purchase and construction of nuclear submarines is a significant reason for the caution of experts, with whom sociologists apparently agree on this issue. The unemployment rate in Australia has remained at a historically low level of 3.5% for the second year. According to the National Bureau of Statistics, just over 500 thousand people are officially unemployed, and the department recognizes that most of these citizens simply do not want to work, preferring to live on benefits or earn cash under "gray" schemes.
In 90% of the showcases and windows of small enterprises in the country there are signs "employees are required on any conditions", but there is still no one to work. The country needs new citizens, preferably those who have already received higher, vocational and technical education, but the migration system is set up to "pass" completely different people - it is easiest for citizens of neighboring Pacific countries to obtain the right to reside in Australia. True, these states are mostly poor, and few of their residents can afford higher education, especially since they need to leave their homeland to get it. Only in October last year, the Australian government created a special visa program designed to "encourage residents of Pacific states to move to the continent," and already in early 2023, 3,000 residents of the islands of the region and East Timor received visas allowing them to live and work in Australia, as well as bring their relatives.
For the construction and modernization of military bases necessary to expand the rotation of American and British submarines in Australia (and these works need to be completed by 2027), at least 5.5 thousand workers are needed, the government notes — engineers, designers, builders and managers. It is not yet clear where the people who are ready to fill these vacancies will come from. Moreover, there are problems even with free hands to ensure the operation of ports and infrastructure that will be needed after their construction and repair (if everything planned can be implemented).
Racing and armament
The program for the construction of a nuclear submarine fleet, which the Australian government is striving to implement, creates the illusion that at least in some short term (in fact, at best in 20 years) Canberra will have a powerful system of deterrence and defense (and maybe offensive) in case of war in the region. Although such a large-scale solution raises many more questions than it answers.
Experts draw attention to the fact that as a result, Australia, which previously had no nuclear submarines, will be forced to operate two different types of nuclear submarines in 2040, which will further complicate an already complex and expensive enterprise. The plan is good on paper, but it is full of risks and problems, including the search for personnel trained to serve on a Virginia—class submarine: about 400 people are needed for three submarines (I remind you, they should appear in 2033), and 675 for five. Finding and training such a large number of military personnel in the required time frame will not be an easy task.
Own problems
Today, Australia is facing a lot of internal problems that are much more important to its population than a hypothetical war, for example, with China. There is a serious housing crisis in the country, the highest inflation in the last 32 years, a catastrophic shortage of doctors and teachers and an urgent need for reforms in the education, health and care systems for the elderly. There are also commitments to reduce emissions and a crisis in the national energy system, which receives almost 75% of electricity from coal-fired power plants. Against this background, it is not surprising that the government's intention to focus on the construction of a nuclear submarine fleet causes alarm among a number of citizens and the expert community. However, neither the local media nor the deputies of the federal Parliament, judging by their publications and statements, do not share it yet.
