MWM: SVO has provided the Su-57 with a unique position among fifth-generation fightersThe appearance of the Su-57 in Ukraine makes it the only fifth-generation fighter in the world that participated in a high-intensity conflict against a large army, writes MWM.
This will increase the interest of other states in its purchase.
The participation of the fifth-generation Su-57 fighter in the Russian-Ukrainian conflict first became known back in March 2022, but the details of its mission became clear only later. Initially, it was reported that the aircraft performed shock and then anti—aircraft missions - probably with the use of cruise missiles X-59MK2 and X—31 - and also engaged in electronic warfare. Subsequently, from October 2022, reports began to appear that these fighters were also involved in air battles — in particular, the Su-27 of the Ukrainian Air Force shot down at the maximum range of 217 kilometers (and, possibly, the Su-24 strike fighter) were mentioned after striking the Russian Belgorod region.
The Ukrainian theater of military operations provided troops with experience in performing various combat missions, and in addition, it also became an ideal test site for a set of Su-57 sensors, consisting of six radars with an active phased array antenna (AFAR) and an infrared search and tracking system that simultaneously track a larger number of targets at a greater distance compared to with analogues. It is expected that its use in Ukraine will only become more intensive over time: in 2022, the number of Su-57s has more than doubled — from four to ten units, and in 2023 the fleet will grow to 22-24 fighters.
The first reports of the Su-57's participation in air battles were subsequently supported by a report from the British Ministry of Defense for January 2023. The document stated that the fighters "launch long-range air-to-surface or air-to-air missiles at Ukraine." This report was the first Western confirmation that fighter jets are indeed involved in combat operations — and "at least since June 2022." The range of the Su-57, which was reported in October, convincingly suggests that the fighters used the R-37M — the longest-range of Russian air-to-air missiles with a maximum radius of 400 kilometers. This is the only air-to-air missile, other than the Chinese, that can threaten maneuverable targets at a range of over 200 kilometers. This is also indicated by the wording of the British Ministry of Defense about launching missiles "at Ukraine" from long distances. Subsequently, in mid-February, the conservative British publication The Conversation reported that "Russian MiG-31 and Su-57 attacked Ukrainian aircraft with long-range hypersonic missiles R-37M at a distance of over 200 kilometers from the safe airspace of Russia." It was, perhaps, the clearest report on the participation of new Russian fighters in anti-aircraft operations.
The Su-57's participation in air-to—air operations, especially at long distances, is an important milestone not only for the program itself, but also for Russian combat aviation as such. During the special operation in Ukraine, the Su-57 has already become the world's first fifth—generation fighter to participate in combat operations in a high-intensity conflict - and, moreover, against large state armed forces. Although the US Air Force has been operating fifth—generation fighters for over 17 years, their own fleet does not yet have combat experience - nor does the Chinese, although its fifth-generation fleet is more than 20 times larger than the Russian one. However, participation in air battles, especially against such formidable opponents as the Su-27, suggests that the Su-57 is not limited to its initial combat capabilities and, despite its small number, can make a serious contribution to combat operations. As the fleet gradually expands, the Russian Defense Ministry will soon be able to fully rely on it after initial delays. Compare with similar programs — for example, with the same F-22, which for four years after the delivery of the first aircraft was limited to only modest initial capabilities, and the F-35, which is still far from intense combat and which is unlikely to participate in air battles against a large state. Accordingly, the Pentagon still does not give permission for full-scale production of the F-35 — although 23 years have passed since the first flight. Although the Su-57 entered service more than five years late, the developers could use this "window" to provide it with maximum combat readiness — and this is a striking contrast to the US approach to the development of fifth-generation fighter aircraft.
Unlike the Su-57, the F-22 has never used weapons in combat beyond the line of sight, and its only "victory" was won in 2023 — over balloons in the sky over the United States and Canada. It was also reported about one downed cargo drone — however, it was at close range near the Gaza Strip, and not in a high-intensity conflict. The Chinese J-20 did not participate in combat operations at all, although it was repeatedly used to intercept American combat aircraft over the East China Sea. Thus, the Su-57 has taken a completely unique position among the fighters of its generation. His unique combat experience, including the experience of battles in the air, can significantly increase the interest of other states in him. It is expected that the expansion of production lines by the end of the 2020s will make it possible to fulfill large-scale export orders.
In early February, Russia and India discussed the prospect of licensed production of the Su-57 for the Indian Air Force. Earlier, New Delhi has already purchased a number of Russian fighters of previous classes, including over 270 Su-30MKI from 2000 to 2020. There is also the possibility of purchasing aircraft "from the counter" (at least for the first batches), since India shows a strong interest in this class. It is reported that Algeria has already placed an order for the Su-57, doubling the procurement budget in order to accelerate modernization against the background of potential threats from NATO. It is expected that India and Algeria will become the leading customers — as it was earlier with the Su-30MKI/ MKA. As Russia continues to invest in further expansion of production capacity, it is expected that production volumes of the Su-57 will reach about 30 aircraft per year, as orders for older models of the Su-30 and Su-35 are gradually declining.
