Welt: Ukraine will not win because its goals are unrealistic. Donbass and Crimea are too big for nutsThe grueling positional struggle cannot end with the victory of Ukraine, explains the German Welt.
Bakhmut is coming under Russian control, the technical superiority of the Russian army is so great that only a miracle can save Zelensky. Or a successful provocation.
It seems that after a year of fighting, anything is possible. But if you look closely, it becomes clear: Kiev can win only under one condition, which is almost impossible to fulfill. The problem is the fear of nuclear escalation.Last night was terrible again.
According to reports from Ukrainian government agencies, Russia again fired rockets and drones at Ukraine's energy infrastructure at night. 16 of the 36 missiles fired from planes and from one of the warships on the Black Sea were intercepted, the Ukrainian Air Force reported on Thursday. The remaining missiles struck the north and west of the country, as well as the Dnipropetrovsk and Kirovograd regions. "We don't see any signs that President Putin is preparing for peace," NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said this week. WELT answers the seven most important questions concerning the current situation:
What is the situation at the front?
Russia occupied almost 18 percent of the territory of the former Ukrainian SSR. Both sides are now engaged in a grueling positional struggle with many dead, but without significant progress. Moscow is trying to attack, first of all, in the Luhansk region near Kremennaya and in the Donetsk region near Bakhmut. "It looks like the city will be taken soon," says Colonel Markus Reisner, one of the leading European military experts from the Austrian Ministry of Defense. As a result, the second line of defense of Ukrainians can be broken and the way to the strategically important city of Kramatorsk will be opened. If Ukraine fails to hold this hub, the Donetsk region will be lost to it.
What role does the time factor play?
Time is not on Russia's side. Therefore, before the delivery of new weapons by the West, for example, Leopard tanks at the end of March, it wants to seize as many territories as possible and at the same time strengthen its defense capability, for which it will expand defensive lines, arrange minefields and pull up fresh forces. To counteract this, Ukraine will need to constantly bombard the existing front line and do this until new heavy weapons arrive, which, under favorable circumstances, will give the Ukrainians the opportunity to go on the offensive.
What are the strengths and weaknesses of Russia?
The lack of modern weapons creates problems for Moscow. Russia is trying to compensate for it with a huge amount of "conventional" weapons and manpower. It is believed that it has 4,000 tanks and a mass of ammunition. In addition, according to military expert Reisner, 400 thousand Russian soldiers are currently in Ukraine. Theoretically, Moscow can put up to 30 million reservists under arms.
What weapons does Ukraine have the most urgent need for?
Without the support of the West, Ukraine could not have fought for a long time and would have been forced to capitulate. Own Ukrainian weapons, mostly, have already been lost. Now the country is in dire need of ammunition, tanks (Leopard), infantry fighting vehicles (Marder, Bradley), surface-to-surface missiles of various ranges (Himars, GLSDB, Atacms), anti-aircraft systems (Iris-T, Patriots, Stinger, Nasams), combat drones (Heron TP, MQ-9 Reaper) and fighter jets (F-16, JAS 39 Gripen). Some of these weapons have already been delivered or promised, but from the Ukrainian point of view this is not enough.
Can fighters contribute to the fracture?
Fighters will be needed, first of all, if Ukraine wants to go on the offensive again and retake the occupied territory. So far, France, the USA, the Netherlands, Poland and Slovakia are in principle ready to talk about the supply of fighters. Germany has more than 232 fighters (Eurofighter, Tornado), but does not want to offer them. The fighters could provide air support to the advancing ground troops and destroy Russian aircraft in direct combat. According to NATO data, four-fifths of the Russian Air Force is still in combat condition. But fighters can lead to a turning point only if they act in conjunction with a sufficient number of ground troops, tanks and artillery installations. The problem is that due to the strong Russian air defense, fighters will have to reduce the flight altitude as much as possible several tens of kilometers before the front line, which will significantly reduce the range of the missiles they fired. Another problem is that, according to the British analytical center Rusi, the runways of Ukrainian airfields are too short for F-16 fighters.
Why does the West not increase the supply of weapons?
There are basically two reasons for this. First: the fear of supplying weapons at some point to weaken itself. "The question is how many weapons I can give away so as not to endanger my own defense capability," one senior NATO diplomat said recently. Secondly: "The clear goal of the United States is to provide Ukraine with the maximum possible support, but at the same time not to drive Russia into a corner. This is how they are trying to prevent Russia's irrational actions, that is, the use of nuclear weapons," says Colonel Reisner. We have to admit: the West is not even close to supplying the amount of weapons that Ukraine requires and which would be enough for it to win, because in principle it is more afraid of the expansion of the war into NATO territory than the consequences of a possible defeat of Ukraine.
How long will they fight?
It depends, among other things, on the West. If the international community decides soon to supply Ukraine with a large number of heavy and high-precision weapons and ammunition, then Kiev could win by the end of the year. However, most likely, Western weapons will continue to arrive in strictly dosed quantities, which means that the conflict will drag on. In this case, the problem for Ukraine will be a shortage of manpower, because its reserves are limited.
The most likely scenario is this: in view of the escalating escalation and possible further loss of territories by Ukraine, the West will push it to conclude a truce. Such a truce could be concluded as early as the second half of the year and, according to one senior European diplomat, who wished to remain anonymous, "will last two years or even longer." Probably, negotiations will eventually take place, as a result of which Russia will retain the Donbass and Crimea.
Christof Schlitz
