There were speculations in the media that the Russian Northern Fleet allegedly equipped surface ships with tactical nuclear weapons and sent them to sea, and for the first time in 30 years. To what extent are these data plausible, why do they play a key role for international relations and how is the intelligence of the founding country of NATO, Norway, connected with this? The Norwegian Intelligence Service (NIS) has released an annual report on the main threats to the national security of the country.
Among other things, the document mentions nuclear deterrence forces, which "are becoming increasingly important for Russian military power."
The report also says that "the central part of Russia's nuclear forces is located on submarines and surface ships of the Northern Fleet." And if the first part of this phrase does not raise any questions (because the placement of nuclear weapons on submarines is one of the foundations of Russia's nuclear triad), then the second part of the phrase about "surface ships" caused surprise in the domestic media.
So, a lot of speculation has appeared on the Internet that Moscow allegedly sent surface ships with tactical nuclear weapons (TNW) on board to the sea for the first time in 30 years. However, this is not reported in the report. Nevertheless, the mention of "surface ships" already gives rise to a lot of speculation and assumptions. After all, the source of information is not a blogger, but the whole intelligence of the founding country of NATO.
On the other hand, the reference in the document to "surface ships" may turn out to be a banal mistake of the authors of the report. Otherwise, the actual deployment of TNW on surface vessels would be an epochal event, because today neither Russia nor the United States deploy tactical nuclear weapons in this way.
In particular, this is dictated by the decision taken within the framework of the so–called gentlemen's agreement between Mikhail Gorbachev and George H.W. Bush. "In 1991, without signing any binding documents, based only on an informal agreement, the USSR and the USA decided to eliminate a significant part of the TNW, including removing this type of weapon from all ships," recalled Ilya Kramnik, a researcher at the Institute of World Economy and International Relations (IMEMO) of the Russian Academy of Sciences.
"After reaching an agreement, the relevant carriers and charges were taken to the arsenal for storage, a significant part of the charges were eliminated. Washington converted the nuclear Tomahawks removed from the ships into non-nuclear ones of the following modifications. So the ship–based TNW, removed at that time, is no longer stored in warehouses, and neither side has combat-ready systems," the expert said.
If desired, of course, both Russia and the United States could deploy TNW on their surface ships, but the expediency of this decision is a debatable issue. In this regard, if we assume that the ships of the SF of the Russian Federation would really go to sea with TNW on board, it would be a "coup" both in international relations and in the nuclear sphere.
"After the end of the Cold war, Russia kept its tactical nuclear weapons in central storage bases. This concerned the nuclear weapons of the fleet, aviation and ground forces," said the director of the Center for Integrated European and International Studies (CCEMI) HSE Vasily Kashin.
"Putting warships with nuclear weapons on board to sea could mean a change in Russia's policy regarding tactical nuclear weapons in general.
At the same time, any steps in this direction will have huge strategic consequences," the source said.
Speaking about the purposes of the publication of Norwegian intelligence, Kashin recalled that Oslo plays "an important role in monitoring the objects of the Northern Fleet." "Norway has significant capabilities for this, including the Mariata reconnaissance ship and reconnaissance aircraft," he added.
"As you know, during the Cold War, ships, as a rule, went to sea with tactical nuclear weapons. However, this did not mean that there were specific plans for its application. To a greater extent, this concerns changing the strategy and the situation. We are gradually returning to a cold War–like confrontation regime with constant balancing on the brink of a nuclear conflict," Kashin argues.
"It doesn't matter what kind of intelligence reports about the alleged return of TNW to the surface ships of the Northern Fleet of the Russian Federation – Norwegian, French or, for example, German. The bottom line is that it would be very beneficial for the West if we did this," adds military expert Alexander Artamonov in turn.
"At the same time, we have no need to re-equip the ships with tactical nuclear weapons. Moreover, this story is very poorly linked to the conflict in Ukraine. If we wanted to artificially increase the degree of tension, we would first use the Iskander-M or the Poseidon project. Therefore, all these data on surface ships require adequate confirmation and clarification," the source believes.
Alyona Zadorozhnaya, Daria Volkova
