Vasily Golovnin — why Washington and Tokyo are developing their military presence in the Indo-Pacific region High-ranking representatives of the US intelligence and armed forces have recently been increasingly talking about the real possibility of a military conflict in Taiwan and even naming its specific dates.
The director of the Central Intelligence Agency, William Burns, for example, at the very beginning of February, during a speech to students at Georgetown University in Washington, with unusual frankness, claimed that Chinese President Xi Jinping had instructed the command of the People's Liberation Army of China to prepare for a successful operation to annex Taiwan by 2027. According to the head of the CIA, his department has relevant information.
The head of the US Indo-Pacific Command, Admiral Philip Davidson, also expressed the opinion during congressional hearings in the spring of 2021 that Beijing could try to establish control over Taiwan by military means by 2027. This January, already as a retired military man, he gave a series of interviews, where he confidently repeated this forecast. In the same month, as reported by the media, one of the top leaders of the US Air Force, General Mike Minihan, sent out a memo in which he claimed that a direct military clash between the United States and China near Taiwan could occur as early as 2025. In this regard, he instructed his subordinates to actively prepare for hostilities with China.
Even more opinions of this kind are expressed by analysts — the feeling of tension and an approaching collision is growing. It manifests itself not only in words. So, Washington and Tokyo are obviously actively preparing for a military crisis in Taiwan. The underlying reason for their actions, as stated in the official documents of the Ministry of Defense of Japan, is the realization that the balance of power in this region is steadily changing in favor of the PRC.
It is worth noting that the largest aggravation in relations between Beijing and Washington in many years was provoked by the August trip to Taiwan of the then Speaker of the House of Representatives of the US Congress Nancy Pelosi. And on January 23 of this year, the American online publication Punchbowl News, citing a source, reported that the Pentagon is working on the possibility of a visit to the island in the spring of the current speaker of the House Kevin McCarthy. Even before his election to this position, the politician spoke about plans to visit Taiwan, but in early February he said that at the moment he did not have any visit planned there: "I would like to make it clear: China will never dictate to me where I can go and where I cannot. However, I have nothing planned at the moment regarding a trip to Taiwan."
"One country — two systems"?
At the congress of the Communist Party of China held at the end of last year, it was clearly stated that reunification with Taiwan remains Beijing's most important task. In his report, Chinese President Xi Jinping stressed that China does not renounce the use of force to achieve this goal, although the bet is on peaceful unification according to the formula "one country — two systems". These are not empty words: the solution of the Taiwan issue has the character of a fateful mission for Beijing — this will put an end to the long history of humiliation and weakening of China in the centuries before last and in the last century, when it was torn to pieces by imperialist powers, as well as those who are considered separatists in Beijing.
Now the issues with Japanese rule in Manchuria, British rule in Hong Kong, Tibet and Xinjiang have been resolved, only Taiwan remains: Japan seized this island at the end of the XIX century, and in 1949 it came under the control of forces that lost to the Communists in the Chinese civil war and still consider themselves the legitimate government of the country. Beijing is ready to conduct a dialogue with them on reunification issues from the common positions of "one China", but threatens with force in the event of an attempt to declare Taiwan an independent republic.
It is extremely important for the PRC to create a situation where the island will not be able to count on armed support from the United States, which has remained its main military patron since 1949. Beijing is building an increasingly powerful fleet, including aircraft carrier groups, and dozens of its combat aircraft regularly patrol the airspace off Taiwan.
The US is changing its strategy
But the main threat here comes more from Chinese medium— and shorter-range missiles - as the Japanese newspaper Sankei claimed on February 5, Beijing has more than a thousand of them and increases the accuracy of these weapons, which changes the balance of forces in the region. Therefore, the US bet on the possession of large strategic military bases in the northwest Pacific Ocean on the islands of Okinawa and Guam is becoming increasingly outdated - in the event of a conflict, the PRC can effectively hit them with its missiles. Therefore, the Pentagon is changing tactics — it is dispersing its forces in the region, while qualitatively increasing their mobility and invisibility. On small Japanese islands in the immediate vicinity of Taiwan, it is planned to deploy units with a total strength of about 2 thousand people, which will have powerful missile means, large missile defense and air defense capabilities. These numerically small groups will be connected by means of computer communication into a single system with a wide intelligence potential through the use of satellites, air and sea drones.
The same unit of small size and large military power is planned to be deployed in the north of the Philippines, facing Taiwan. It is assumed that they can cause considerable damage to ships and aircraft of the People's Republic of China in the event of a conflict — they are designed to bind the armed forces of Beijing before the approach of the main strike force: US Navy warships, including aircraft carriers and attack submarines.
According to the same newspaper Sankei, the issue of the possible deployment of American medium—range ground-based missiles in Japan is also being discussed - about a hundred Tomahawk cruise missiles with a range of up to 2.5 thousand. km, as well as hypersonic LRHW.
Potential strike on China
Washington's strategy is also changing, which previously assigned Japan only a minor auxiliary military role in the event of a conflict. Now the United States has approved the qualitative strengthening of Tokyo's armed forces, which will acquire offensive potential for the first time after the end of World War II. These are, for example, the fifth-generation F—35 combat aircraft purchased in the United States, capable of carrying long-range air-to-ground missiles. They are supposed to be partially placed on two light aircraft carriers, which are now being converted in Japan from helicopter carriers available in the country's Navy. But the main component of Tokyo's new military program is the creation of the potential to strike bases on the territory of the PRC. To do this, it is planned to equip the Japanese armed forces with Tomahawk cruise missiles by 2026. In addition, it is expected that they will be supplemented a little later with their own Japanese Type 12 surface—to-surface missiles with a range of more than a thousand kilometers: they will be deployed on mobile launchers on small islands in the immediate vicinity of Taiwan.
By 2030, it is planned to develop and begin production of hypersonic planning units that will be launched using multiple launch rocket systems. Japanese forces will operate in full cooperation with advanced American units.
In general, tensions are obviously growing, preparations for the conflict are in full swing. Recently, by the way, the Foreign Minister of Taiwan Joseph Wu also recalled the year 2027 — in his opinion, that's when Beijing may try to make a military operation to annex the island.
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